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Apollo Investment Corporation Message Board

thewisejman 1007 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Feb 13, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Probably a day or two too soon

    by thewisejman 14 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 12 hours ago Flag

    If they believed Yellen would have their backs, then when Yellen raise rate in June & July, they would be shocked that they got stabbed by Yellen on their backs. Ever single Fed person had been broadcasting a rate hike soon. When is the 64M question.

  • Reply to

    Probably a day or two too soon

    by thewisejman 14 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 14 hours ago Flag

    The three indexes did shoot up in the last 20 minutes and all three indexes rose a bit higher at closing. Very interesting. Tuesday will be critical. Everybody has a great Memorial Day!!!

  • Reply to

    Probably a day or two too soon

    by thewisejman 14 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 14 hours ago Flag

    So many experts had been saying S&P would soon reach 2100 or higher. It is currently at 2098 and its previous 12-mo high was 2132.82 on 7/20/15. Today the Q1 2016 GDP was revised for the first one of 0.5 to 0.8. At Harvard today, Yellen said, ""Probably in the coming months such a move (rate hike) would be appropriate," and many now believed she would raise rate in June or July. The simple fact is the damages had been done, no matter whether she would raise rate or not. If the Fed would not raise rate in June or July, they would not be able to raise rate any time soon, probably just once on December and will lost their credibility. If they want to save face and raise rate in either June or July, it would certainly stun the market and bring us faster into a recession. Why so many people believed our economy was doing well? Are they BLIND? With an expectation of a rate hike soon, US dollars would remain strong, I cannot see a continued rise in oil price, passing $50 and stay there. In short, I believe the days of this recent market rally is numbered. June and July can be very very volatile months. I had not bought or sold a single thing today, for me that was extremely rare. Next week can be a very very BUSY week. If market would rise significantly on next Tuesday, I would not hesitate to add more shorts. Did you not see DXD fail to drop closer to 18? (Its 12-mo low was 17.83 on 4/20/16). It got stuck in a range of 18.21-18.31. I had never seen such a tight range before.

  • II vividly remember phil said a year or two ago, market never drop before Memorial Day but would afterwards. It seems my prediction that the market would drop today did not come true. But look at its volume, with only about 20 minutes before closing:
    Today Volume Daily average (last 10 days)
    DOW up 32.60 points 36,131,079 88,737,469
    NASDAQ + 24.9 pts 240,090,784 423,066,581
    S&P500 2,097.27(+7.17) 300,816,000 578,564,000

    That was pretty low volume, like all the traders had already left town.

    Next Tuesday or the latest on June 1, Wed., this market is going to be FUN (for me).........I am just one or two days early......

  • thewisejman thewisejman 15 hours ago Flag

    pacman: If you had posted this message yesterday instead of today, and told us to grab some FSAM, I would have believed you must be a genius. Or you said you had bought some today at 4.155 when market first opened and sold it when FSAM popped 14.39% to 4.77, I would say "Wow, he is good."
    Will FSAM go higher than FSC, of course, if they kept sucking FSC dry, NAV of FSC would continue to drop 9.6% annually like it previously did, of course FSAM would rise higher than FSC. You know who own most of the FSAM shares? But any stock that can shoot up 14% in one day can also drop than much or more in one day. Like I have been saying, I would not touch either FSAM or MDLY with a ten-foot pole. J

  • Reply to

    Eddie Cantor used to say...

    by ockiote May 26, 2016 9:30 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    If the Fed would indeed raise rate in June (currently 34% chance), the BDC sector will sink and some may make new 12-mo lows. The most risky ones are:
    AINV, BDCL (a BDC ETN), BDCS (a BDC ETN), CMFN, FDUS, KCAP, MCGC, MFIN, OHAI, OXLC, PNNT, TCAP, TICC.
    The one that can drop real fast are:
    BKCC, SCM, PSEC, FSC, MCC, CPTA, FULL, MAIN, GSBD, GLAD, TCAP, TCPC if there is a massive sell off.

  • Reply to

    Eddie Cantor used to say...

    by ockiote May 26, 2016 9:30 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 4:03 PM Flag

    If I remember correctly, in their most recent quarter, the only BDCs that I know of with a rising NAV are: MRCC, GAIN and MFIN (TAXI). ABDC's NAV was unchanged. That is a very short list.

  • Reply to

    Taking money off table

    by tonofelephant May 26, 2016 2:09 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 3:50 PM Flag

    TPVG shot up 2.57% on its ex-div day today. Very impressive.

  • Reply to

    Taking money off table

    by tonofelephant May 26, 2016 2:09 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    Watching MRCC, TRCD, SCM, ABDC, WHF and GAIN closely, if they drop I would buy.

  • Reply to

    Taking money off table

    by tonofelephant May 26, 2016 2:09 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    Hi, tono: That may very well be a smart move. I was too chicken to touch ARCC, did not believe it was a good buy at this time. You had a lot of guts to trade CHK. That one can be poison. Do not want to buy any BDCs yet. GL J

  • Reply to

    Taking money off table

    by tonofelephant May 26, 2016 2:09 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    Hi tulsa: Did you start celebrating already? Gave you a thumb up for being funny....J

  • Reply to

    Bought HFC again at 26.569

    by thewisejman May 26, 2016 10:47 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 12:13 PM Flag

    Decided not to wait, added more MPC at 34.695. When this one pops, it will be rapid.

  • Reply to

    Bought HFC again at 26.569

    by thewisejman May 26, 2016 10:47 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    MPC is very close to being oversold and if it drops below 34, time to add more.

  • Reply to

    Bought HFC again at 26.569

    by thewisejman May 26, 2016 10:47 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    Time to play defense.

  • Reply to

    Bought HFC again at 26.569

    by thewisejman May 26, 2016 10:47 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    Sold DFP at 24.11, very close to its previous 12-mo high of 24.25, its yield is now only 7.95%, listening all these Fed talking heads lately, including Bullard, all were united in raising rate. They may be crazy enough to do it just to cool down the market. The yield curve is flattening. 2-year note auction was much better than expected.

  • Reply to

    All that glitters....MrPhil, to me

    by ockiote May 25, 2016 4:37 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    Good luck in hiring young people who want to do yard works. These days all of them just want to sit in front of a computer (laptop) and get paid. I hired my lawn guy to remove one of my bush stump and his young helper did not show up. He dug up the whole thing by himself and when I asked how old he is. He said 75 years, much older than me.

  • Reply to

    FSC should be a great hedge

    by forensic_investor May 24, 2016 11:22 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    Put in a buy order for FSC at 4.68, at this price, its yield would be about 15.38%.

  • Reply to

    Eddie Cantor used to say...

    by ockiote May 26, 2016 9:30 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    "The funny thing is that People forget eventually and lennyboy will get FSCs stock back up above NAV once again. It's just a matter of time. Crazy as that may sound today."
    You see, the funny thing is, pacman, at first I really thought you were crazy in making this statement, then I thought more about it and believe you could actually be right. You see, FSC's NAV was 9.13 a year ago, then dropping to 9.00, then 8.41 and then 8.33. That was about an annual drop of 9.6%, if it continues to drop at this or faster pace, in about five years or less, its NAV will become around 5.02 and the FSC price can indeed be back up above its NAV, then they can issue more new shares. If FSC would resume its ATMs or FSAM is successfully in making FSC to pay for its legal fees, its NAV would drop that much faster. The problem is I believe FSC would be very lucky to even sustain its current qtr dividend of 0.18 without the ability to raise any of its future earnings. Therefore I rate FSC a SELL at its current price. I believe it would drop another 5% or more in the next 12 months. I am not in a hurry to buy it back. Right now I believe holding too many BDCs can be hazardous to one's financial health, no matter how good they may seem. I just sold off 2/3 of my CMFN 8.1588 to take small profit (bought at 8 on 5/19) to take small profit. It is just too risky for short-term. I am hoping MAIN will drop below 28 soon so I can start buying.

  • Reply to

    Bought HFC again at 26.569

    by thewisejman May 26, 2016 10:47 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman May 26, 2016 10:53 AM Flag

    Just bought some QID at 29.459, at first want to wait till this afternoon but seeing both DOW and S&P started turning RED, not sure if I can afford to wait. Now I might have jinxed QID and NASDAQ will continue to pop, or NOT.

  • thewisejman by thewisejman May 26, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    after selling off most of it at 27.7109 on 5/24/16, a day before its ex-div date of 5/25, gave up the 0.33 dividend, yet bought it back at 1.14/share cheaper. Not always so lucky.

    It just made its 12-mo low of 26.53 and can indeed continue to drop some more before it would settle down.
    Interestingly, both WTI and Brent crude surpassed $50 today with WTI actually a bit higher than Brent. This had happened before and investors did not like that because they believe it would cut into the profit of the US oil refiners. May be that was why MPC, HFC, VLO, PSX all got hit today. Yet WTI had surpassed Brent before and HFC seemed to find ways to not only survive it but remained profitable.

    I looked at HFC's 5-year chart, the last time it dropped that low was around 5/12/12 at 26.31, before that was 11/21/11 around 20.29, therefore HFC can go either way, started rising or dropping more. But at its current price of 26.55, its yield has become almost 5% and I believe it is a decent buy. Now of course my timing was never perfect, therefore you must make your own decision.

AINV
5.25-0.02(-0.38%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT