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The Madison Square Garden Company Message Board

thewisejman 820 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 27 minutes ago Member since: Feb 13, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Auto loan problems ahead?

    by keltus1952 2 hours 5 minutes ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 1 hour 27 minutes ago Flag

    However, another big bubble may be student debts.

    According to this 8/12/14 Bloomberg article:
    "Student Debt Threatens the Safety Net for Elderly Americans"
    "Until his Social Security check arrived nearly $300 lighter last June, Eric Merklein, 67, had no idea that he was carrying outstanding student debt. Merklein eventually learned that the government was taking money from his Social Security payments to repay loans he took out roughly four decades ago; he had thought they were paid. Merklein was unemployed, and the garnishment amounted to one-sixth of his total monthly income."
    "While people aged 50 and older hold only 17 percent of all U.S. student debt, this group has nearly three times as much debt as it did in 2005, according to the New York Fed data. By comparison, student debt for people under 40 is about one and a half times as high it was then."
    I almost thought it was a April Fool's joke when I first read it.

  • Reply to

    Auto loan problems ahead?

    by keltus1952 2 hours 5 minutes ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 1 hour 31 minutes ago Flag

    The way they explained why they were not afraid of default was this:
    It is much easier to repo a car when the borrower stopped payment and much easier to re-sell it. I do not know how true that is.

  • Reply to

    Auto loan problems ahead?

    by keltus1952 2 hours 5 minutes ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 1 hour 32 minutes ago Flag

    I wonder where those girls are now? On food stamps or welfare? LOL

  • Reply to

    Auto loan problems ahead?

    by keltus1952 2 hours 5 minutes ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 1 hour 36 minutes ago Flag

    This is what the Bloomberg article "Student Debt Threatens the Safety Net for Elderly Americans" says: (8/12/14)

    "While people aged 50 and older hold only 17 percent of all U.S. student debt, this group has nearly three times as much debt as it did in 2005, according to the New York Fed data. By comparison, student debt for people under 40 is about one and a half times as high it was then."

  • Reply to

    Auto loan problems ahead?

    by keltus1952 2 hours 5 minutes ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 1 hour 38 minutes ago Flag

    I believe another time bomb waiting to explode on our face is Education Loan, not just those made by college kids who just graduated and could find no jobs but by retirees or senior citizens. This one guy applied for SS benefit and found that his SS check was being garnished and 1/4 of it monthly amount being deducted because he never paid back his school loan though he said his aunt paid it back for him years ago but he threw away the receipt.

  • Reply to

    Auto loan problems ahead?

    by keltus1952 2 hours 5 minutes ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 1 hour 42 minutes ago Flag

    I had actually watched this fiasco on auto loans being discussed not too long ago because it appears that the only loans many lenders will loan today, including those to sub-prime loans to candidates with low credit scores, are auto loans, usually in length of 7-10 years, more like a mortgage than an auto loan because price of many luxury cars, even those used ones, had price tags like that of a small house. The funny thing is now if you go to our local Accura car dealer, most of the employees and shoppers there are mostly African Americans, buying both new and used Accura models like no tomorrow. In the company I worked, I was shocked to see so many Lexus, Accura, Mercedes, Infiniti and Hummers in our parking garages and not all of the drivers are making 6-figure salaries.

  • Reply to

    The FED will support the economy?

    by thewisejman 1 hour 55 minutes ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 1 hour 52 minutes ago Flag

    Mysmart friend said something pretty profound yesterday:
    "The FED's job is to keep the rich people RICHER."
    I believe Yellen's main goal may be to assure another Democrat president will be elected in 2016 so she will keep her job.
    Now of course we can be both wrong.

  • When the FED July FOMC minutes were first reported at 2 p.m. ET, I was in the gym exercising and watching CNBC. TWM actually went all the way up to around 45.40, almost temped to sell those I bought at $45 to take profit and even DXD was up just a little. Then both came back down, more for DXD than TWM, which was weird but expected, because that may mean small gaps will be in BIGGER troubles soon. They have nowhere to hide.

    The reasons for the market to bounce up a bit was today because everybody believes the FED would continue to "support" the economy because the job market is still uneven. I found that a joke except it was not funny. How in the world the FED is going to support our economy by continuing to hold down our interest rate? Japan has been keeping their interest rate at zero and their economy plus stock market continued to go SOUTH until ABE decided to have the BIGGEST QE in Japan's history recently and for a while it appeared he might be successful but is he really? The Japanese will pay for his actions in runaway inflation. If an economy is dead, nothing, including zero interest rate can salvage it. ECB is now counting on negative rate to save Europe's economy. It is almost like watching comedies unfolded globally, except none of them are funny.

    The funny thing is today, 2-year, 5-year (up the most, 1.6%) and 10-year rate (closed at 2.43) all went up today, amid all these good news from our FED. Now I found that truly amazing. May be the bond market gets it right more often than the stock market. Our economy is indeed on the way to recovery but any foolish action or non-actions by our FED, will surely detour it.


  • Reply to


    by tulsadevlin 5 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 2 hours 10 minutes ago Flag

    Not a bad bet, especially for insurance. I have been buying DXD and TWM, every time they dropped 2%, bought more. It is like building layers of defenses, when the market tanks, each layer will be peeled off and money returning to the bank. It can be painful but small caps are close to being FINISHED. Russell started cracking today. No good news other than another new QE can save it.

  • thewisejman thewisejman 2 hours 13 minutes ago Flag

    Do you know what is really really interesting? While they still do not allow our grocery stores to sell wines and it does require a liquor license to sell wines, you can go to a local Asian grocery store, whether it is Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese or Korean, you can buy a bottle of medicine wine or Chinese cooking wine with more alcohol content than many wines or beers. How funny!
    Also, all these local estate sales are selling left-over or unopened wines left by the estates without any liquor license or checking ID of the buyers (for age). I found that ironic.

  • thewisejman thewisejman 2 hours 17 minutes ago Flag

    How funny, I just found out the IPA has an alcohol content of 7.5% and the Wild Blue beer I used to drink in my son-in-law's house has a 8% content and it was not allowed for sales in my state. Now my daughter and son-in-law moved to the same state as us and we surely miss this Wild Blue beer. Incidentally, a while ago in the lab I used to work has 200 proof ethanol with which we made quality control for the blood alcohol test. Wow, it was like moonshine, but now the manufacture got smart and added methanol to it, if you drink too much of it, you would turn blind.

  • thewisejman by thewisejman 5 hours ago Flag

    a BDC shot up 2.32% today and I have no idea why? Anybody knows why?

  • be sinking again. More new shares being dumped into the market?

    May be time to buy again. Already put in two large buy orders.

  • Reply to

    Keep an eye on FGB

    by thewisejman 8 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 8 hours ago Flag

    I just put in a limited BUY order for it at 8.20.

  • FGB is on my BDC watch list and yesterday it opened at 8.66 and dropped to as low as 8.39, that was a 3.11% drop. It closed at 8.47 and traded at around 8.44 right now. At first I thought it was a BDC but could not find its recent NAV until it rang a bell to me that it is actually a CEF that contains BDCs such as ARCC (9.02%), GBDC (6.25%), PNNT (5.21%), HTGC (5.07%), TCPC (4.90%), TCRD (4.86%), MCC (4.85%), NMFC (4.71%), CYS (a REIT, 4.62%), SLRC (4.35%) and TCAP (3.33%).

    Many are our favorites. I could not find out why it dropped so much yesterday without any BAD news. Did anybody know why? According to Connect CEF, its recent NAV is 9.25, and it just raised its qtr dividend from 0.17 to 0.1725 recently, with its next dividend date on 8/22/14 (about a 8.17% yield) Therefore, this may not be a bad one for trading if it drops a bit more before this Friday, worth watching, IMHO.

  • The FED is going to release their July FOMC minutes today at 2 pm. ET. Yellen is going to speak at Jackson Hole this Friday and I don't believe anybody will expect the announcement of a rise in interest rate in either of these occurrences but the FED had surprised us before and not necessarily in a good way. Therefore would no new NEWS be good news or we may face a time bomb if there are even some hints that the FED will raise interest rate? Now many experts had already started predicting the market will reach new HIGHs, or would it? I just wonder if ALL the good news may be starting to run out?

    The funny thing is even with about 70k in TWM, I was only down 1.4k yesterday but today I am down only $672. The thing is it is really quite easy for TWM to rise or drop 3% in a single day, all it takes is for the Russell 2000 to rise or drop about 1.5%. Yesterday I was waiting to add more TWM, believe or not, but it never did drop enough for me to add. My smart friend was surprised yesterday in the Russell 2000's going up when almost every single small cap stock he holds went down. In short, if the BIG indexes drop, the Russell will drop much more fiercely. You may want to take a really GOOD look at all of your small caps and see if they are really worth holding for long term. When the Tsunami hits, some of these small caps will go down 10-20% before you can blink your eyes, guaranteed. I know phil may criticize me for changing my attitude from day to day, but an investor must be able to adjust to any market changes, no different than his changing from "sold in May and go away" and now changing to investing 50% in stocks again. The remainder of 2014 may prove to be very entertaining or very boring, at least for the stock market or the bond market. I won't be surprised to see both sink together, just like they had risen together recently. I do agree that to have a lot of DRY powder may not be a bad idea. My smart friend said 2014 is reminiscent of 2007 and I concur.

  • Reply to

    Some PE Ratios from March 1979....

    by keltus1952 Aug 19, 2014 4:50 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman 8 hours ago Flag

    Thanks, Kel, it would be really great if you can list their current P/E with the March 79 ones side by side for comparison.

  • Reply to

    Tough stock to sell

    by alba95 Aug 19, 2014 2:56 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman Aug 19, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    luvpizzasj: That was probably a smart move - selling before Yellen speaks this Friday especially market already up two days in a ROW. If market goes up again, I will be adding more TWM or DXD, either one dropped enough today for me to add. I agreed Yellen might not have the gut to raise interest rate till too LATE but trying to guess what the FED may or may not do, is like trying to guess what my wife will wear on a certain day. Not even go there. Previously, when many believed the FED will start bond tapering, they did not and when many expected they would not they announced bond tapering. LOL. J

  • Reply to

    90 to 100

    by frigator Aug 19, 2014 2:27 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman Aug 19, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    I simply cannot get too excited about Apple, I think it is DEAD money. Rather buy and hold GOOGL (Cl A).

  • thewisejman by thewisejman Aug 19, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    SLRC, a favorite BDC of my smart friend, with a very stable 0.40 dividend, all of a sudden dropped about 7% earlier today, from yesterday's closing price of 19.80, fell all the way to its daily low and 12-mo low of 18.51. Its range today is 18.51 - 19.84 with a daily volume of 136k (average 209k). My friend could not figure out why either. I thought it was probably due to somebody selling it with a market order. I previously had put in a BUY order at 18.50 and just canceled it a few days ago.

    That shows you it may not be a BAD idea to put in a LOW ball buy order on any stocks you like because you never know when you may get it. That was how we bought some PSEC previously at 9.17. When the market crashes or because of a BAD earning report, any stocks can start free falling..........................

65.00+2.16(+3.44%)Aug 20 4:00 PMEDT

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