Agreed. There are no other companies of similar size in this space trading at such depressed prices. The closest in size (FUEL) trades at 2x EV with less sales/employee & weaker margins. If MM looks like it will meet its Q2 targets, the stock could go easily where it was in April... and that, without even a buyout premium !
You have to also include $100M in cash that can sweeten the pot. Any company with ambition in e-commerce services could buy them ...The list is long and varied. Why can't this be the next gen Yellow Pages for the mobile world ? AT&T and VZ are you listening ??
Thanks for the clue. Confirmed : the new CEO did purchase over the last 2 days over $1M of stock in the open market.
Barrett is not a novice. He reports to a board which is still controlled by VC's which, including Jumptap, have collectively put around $300M in this company. They are still looking to exit at some point.They know that the company is severely undervalued wrt. comparables in the Ad Tech space, especially in mobile . They also know that they are, at the moment, the largest revenue producer in mobile after the 3 giants : GOOG, FB and AAPL.
They have a good shot at Programmatic which is the disruptive force against these "integrated" big players. The value of data mining on their statistics ( especially cross-device) is anybody's guess, but could be a huge asset in the hands of anybody competing with GOOG and FB.
I agree with those who believe this company is ripe for a takeover. A lot faster than others...
Based on the transcripts of the conference call, the new CEO has a good handle on the issues. He has clearly ruled out downsizing and is rightly focused on top line growth. (vs. profits) in this hypercompetitive space.
I would have liked him to put more emphasis on Jumptap's potential and its IP, since any future buyout will value that more than other things. His four prong strategy is clear , but he still must prioritize.things as to their execution. He came across as more direct and accountable during the Q&A than their CFO.
The CFO's departure was to be expected since he, alone, stands behind the Q1 forecasts that disappointed.
Now, a lot rides on who they will replace him with. Since Barrett is a seasoned manager, I assume he knows that in exploring a merger or a sale of the company the CFO and CTO will be part of the "core team".
All in all, I haven't given up hope yet with this company currently trading near 1x forward sales, not including the $98 M cash which gives them some staying power. If they meet the Q2 forecast, things will look a lot better.
In an industry accustomed to growth, this company is as flat as can be while having the nerve to carefully dissimulate a larger loss sequentially and YoY. The fact that they have rescheduled their debt lessens their burden but it does NOT eliminate it. For that, they need profitable growth. Where is it ??
Yes, indeed. Insiders have been bailing out while a clueless obscure analyst upgraded the stock today !
At these levels, the stock is expensive, regardless of their debt rescheduling plans.
When comparing Texas Instruments to Freescale, the following metrics stand out :
Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.33 (TXN) vs. 2.42 (FSL)
Enterprise Value/EBITDA : 10.80 ( TXN) vs. 13.65 (FSL)
Simply put, FSL is highly leveraged but not delivering commensurate sales growth while having a built-in impediment for EPS due to the need to service its debt.
Even if EBITDA margin grows to catch-up with TXN's ( a very unlikely IF..)at the moment FSL is about 25% overvalued. Any comments ?
Your points are all well taken and will drive NUV to 9.5 by mid-year in my opinion.
Muni's are still unloved and underestimated : that's another reason to get in now.
Thanks for the posting.
The selling fury is affecting all Muni bonds - not just Oppenheimer who , btw, has weathered the selloff much better than PIMCO or Nuveen funds.
It has something to do with QE2 but not sure what. If the EU shows more sovereign debt angst, I don't see how the Muni markets in the US would be shielded..That being said, the last 3 days have been brutal: how much lower can it go ??
The only thing that should ensue (if it does) is more bank lending stimulating some monetary inflation.
I don't see any direct impact on munis although except perhaps on the positive side for the high-yield variety : ORNAX should be more shielded from dumping due to aggressive bank dispositions of junk bonds.
You are describing the situation as if interest rates had lots of room to go lower. As far as I can tell, the difference between .5% and 0% is a negligible 1/2%. If your NAV assumption ( more like a wish ?) was true, it should have started to reflect it about 9 months ago.
Of all the high-yield Muni funds out there, the one whose NAV is still a depressing 40% below its highs is unfortunately still ORNAX.
It is indeed noteworthy that smart money has been accumulating here despite all the negative publicity about Munis in the mainstream media.
The bigger unknown is the impact of sovereign debt problems on Munis. Recent market sentiment does not indicate a growing concern. Hope it stays that way.