[[ ... If the drug gets accelerated approval, the stock could trade at $50 or $60 or even higher. If the drug is rejected, the stock could fall to $10 or lower. At the current stock price, Wall Street still appears to be putting a less than 50/50 chance of approval. That view seems too pessimistic. Our view is that the odds are better than 50/50. ...]]
[[ ... One reason for optimism on eteplirsen today is this: If the FDA were going to reject eteplirsen and essentially tell the company to come back in two years with more complete data from an ongoing Phase 3 confirmatory trial, the agency could have done so by the deadline. It has been reviewing the drug for months. Street analysts generally have been expecting outright rejection of the drug.
The delay suggests that something is going on behind the scenes between the company and the FDA. ]]
[[... If the drug gets accelerated approval, the stock could trade at $50 or $60 or even higher. If the drug is rejected, the stock could fall to $10 or lower. At the current stock price, Wall Street still appears to be putting a less than 50/50 chance of approval. That view seems too pessimistic. Our view is that the odds are better than 50/50....]]
The author is very bullish with Regeneron. He thinks that it will reach 500 next year and has the annual growth rate of 35% beyond. $REGN composes 7% of IBB. It will lift IBB this week and Vertex has to follow IBB. Shorted shares will be toxic to your account. Cover them.
There’s a gaping difference between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share, which totaled $12.07 last year. It will probably narrow a bit in coming years as the profit base grows. By 2020, analysts reckon that GAAP earnings will reach close to $22 a share and adjusted ones, about $30. ]]
If you use the non-GAAP earnings of 30 by 2020, and the annual growth rate of 35% (P/E = 35), then 30X35 = 1050. So in 4 years $REGN could go above $1000 per share.
Regulus' RG-101 lost value when it could not achieve a 100% SVR together with Olysio. But ABBV and MRK would be watching carefully how the final data would come out this quarter. Their hep C drugs can incorporate RG-101 and improve their market shares which are dismal right now. ABBV (Abbott) has built considerable expertise in hep C in collaboration with Enanta. If 101 is safe and achieves near 100% SVRs with Harvoni, ABBV's 5 different-pill-a-day regimen can be simplified to a triple or double regimen with a shorter duration by incorporating 101. The value of 101 will be nearly equal to the cost savings from unused oral drugs, which are very expensive.
Its value will be recognized by the market. Do not sell with a loss.
Sanofi is open to acquisitions in the market for rare disease treatments in a sign of confidence that the high prices commanded by so-called orphan drugs are sustainable.
David Meeker, head of Sanofi’s Genzyme specialty care business, said rare disease assets were among the French group’s potential targets as it hunted growth. Acquisitions were possible “up to the size of Genzyme”, which Sanofi bought for $20bn in 2011, he added.
Mr Meeker would not be drawn on the identity of potential targets. There are numerous small and midsized drug developers focused on rare diseases, mostly in the US, and their valuations have fallen since a bull run in the sector ended last summer.
This has fuelled expectations that big pharmaceuticals groups could go bargain-hunting, but Mr Meeker insisted Sanofi would remain disciplined. “Valuations have come down but from high levels,” he said. “There is a certain resetting of valuations. .......... From Financial Times