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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

thirdmeinvestor 83 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 20, 2014 3:57 PM Member since: Feb 25, 2004
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  • Reply to

    competition

    by papaalien2000 Jun 29, 2014 6:19 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jul 20, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    Papa, the company succeeded in transferring genes to red blood cells is bluebird bio. I agree that gene therapy for CF would be a big challenge and it may take more than 10 years, but transplanting normal CFTR to the lung cell nucleus are being attempted in UK as I said before.

  • thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jul 16, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    Barron's had the following:

    Expect Gilead Sciences (GILD) to post a “blowout” quarter, says Bernstein’s Geoffrey Porges and Wen Shi:
    Based on our analysis of domestic product sales trends, likely effects of currency, shipping days, weather and other seasonal effects we are quite positive about the outlook for the approaching earnings season for the biotech stocks in our coverage. It is worth remembering that Q2 is typically the best quarter of the year for biotech companies across the board – Q1 headwinds from co-payments, deductibles and “donut holes”
    are over, shipping days usually peak, weather effects are minimal and management teams are inclined to signal more of their full and realistic earnings potential for the year, lest they be accused of “sandbagging” for the year after a decent first half. Clearly the most likely company to surprise to the upside is Gilead…

    We increased our forecast for Truvada, Complera, and Stribild, and trimmed our forecast for Viread and Atripla. Our analysis points to US Sovaldi revenue above $3bn, well above recent consensus of $2.6bn; we are also expecting $700mm in OUS revenue for Sovaldi in the quarter. Our total revenue forecast for Q2 is now over $7bn, or 24% above recent consensus. Our EPS estimate is $2.24, or 35% above recent consensus.

  • Reply to

    GILD will acquire: Mark Schoenebaum ISI group

    by rojospan Jul 12, 2014 1:07 PM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jul 12, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    I saw a Market Talk headline yesterday, but I did not know the source. Will they pay a 50% premium? It should not be sold below 150/shr.

  • thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jul 12, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    I consider Kalydeco is a more secure drug than Sovaldi in the sense that Kalydeco opened up a new life to a lot of people and there are no other alternative to treat at the very basic level.

    If you had sold shares at 60's, buy them before they go over 100. You can recover the loss in a year. You can also make money by selling put options for the future months. Put premiums are still quite high... to buy 1 Contract of Jan[15] put at sp of 85 cost you around $570, but if you SELL the same put, you can collect 570 per Contract. If the VRTX share price ever goes below 85, then you have to buy them at 85 in January.

  • Reply to

    valuation

    by papaalien2000 Jul 9, 2014 10:56 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jul 9, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    Verity, the Traffic trial yielded the absolute change of 3.6% for 600mg Lum within the group, and 4% relative to placebo. The Transport yielded a lower value of 2.6%. These compared with the Phase II 4+4 wk data of 3.4% within group and 6.7% relative to the placebo. All numbers quoted above were absolute ones. The Ph II data were noisy. As you stated, Ph II data of 661/Iva combo gave slightly better results. After 4 wks' of the 100mg 661 dosing, FEV1 changed by 4.8% absolute (9% relative) within group as well as relative to placebo.

    The most important results from the Ph III data are not FEV1 changes, but the significant reduction in the frequency of pulmonary exacerbations that participants experienced, and the high number(90%) of participants in the rollover study.

  • thirdmeinvestor by thirdmeinvestor Jul 9, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    Vertex is borrowing $300M at an interest rate of 7.2%. The purpose for this loan is said to be related to strengthening financial position:

    [[ The credit agreement is intended to strengthen our financial position as we invest in our key development programs in cystic fibrosis and in research for future medicines, including potential collaborations to support priority programs. ]]

    Vertex may need funds for supporting Phase 2 trials of reversing, and blocking AIDS using caspase-1 inhibitor, VX-765.

  • Reply to

    History depends on the circumstances

    by qdelfan Jun 29, 2014 6:54 PM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 29, 2014 10:02 PM Flag

    Agree 100%. Selection of a 2nd gen corrector and start of clinical trials of triple combo will be another sp moving events just as the FDA marketing approval of 508 homozygote treatment. An optimistic disclosure of the collaboration with Greene and co. for HIV treatment using VX-765 would be a lifting event also.

  • Reply to

    competition

    by papaalien2000 Jun 29, 2014 6:19 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 29, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    I think it was Q2 earnings call, not Q1, when Mueller mention gene therapy. In a year or two Vertex will have money to partner with, or acquire a promising CF drug companies.

  • Reply to

    competition

    by papaalien2000 Jun 29, 2014 6:19 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 29, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    In response to analyst's query into future drug research in the Q1 E CC, Peter Mueller mentioned that he is looking into gene therapy. He didn't specify what disease the gene therapy targeted at the time, but I suspected it was CF therapy by the context. A UK consortium is running a clinical trial since 2012. Bluemoon appeared to have succeeded in treating a rare disease using lentivirus recently, and Bayer also has committed to work with Dimension Th. for hemophilia A. I am certain that Vertex is intensely watching the development. As you suggested, Vertex learned an important lesson from Incivek debacle.

  • Reply to

    competition

    by papaalien2000 Jun 29, 2014 6:19 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 29, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    I liked the phase 2 result of their JAK1 inhibitor for RA. They still have not started phase 3. I would think that even if their potentiator is effective and safe it won't be out for at least 3 years and their corrector for 6 years. Their potentiator has to compete against the VX-661+Kalydeco combo for 551/508 heterozygotes.

  • thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 25, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    Geoffrey Porges also changed his mind.

    Vertex Pharm tgt raised to $107 from $65 at Bernstein

    Vertex Pharm tgt raised to $115 from $93 at UBS; Buy

    Vertex Pharm target raised to $125 from $100 at Leerink Partners; Outperform

    Needham raises their VRTX tgt to $115 from $95 given favorable outcome and
    substantial commercial opportunity. Co announced positive results today from
    two Phase 3 trials of ivacaftor/ lumacaftor (TRAFFIC/TRANSPORT) in Cystic
    Fibrosis patients with two copies of the F508del mutation. Both trials met the
    primary endpoint as well as key secondary endpoints. A trend toward
    improvement with respect to a quality of life metric was also observed.
    Although impact on lung function was moderate, overall data suggest a
    clinically meaningful and commercially viable drug regimen; maintain Buy.

    Vertex Pharm: Hearing Tier 1 firm raising tgt to $130 from $100 following data
    release

    Maxim Group raises their VRTX tgt to $107 from $92; their valuation is driven
    by the potential of a Kalydeco/corrector combination expanding the franchise
    in CF. As they further understand the totality of the Vertex data we will
    review their market size calculations which may show our valuation is
    conservative.

  • Reply to

    Adam knows his stuff.. going higher

    by biotraderman Jun 25, 2014 12:17 PM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 25, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    The share price could double in 18 months from the sales of Kalydeco and VX-809.

  • Reply to

    A post from facebook:

    by gladpick Jun 6, 2014 11:24 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 23, 2014 10:12 PM Flag

    The same person (most likely) posted the following blog on May 30 two weeks after the one you posted appeared. In both blogs she wrote without using punctuation marks.

    [[ Judy Law My daughter took part in this study in england it was double blinded for 6 months but now she is taking the active drug [there has to be a "period" here (my comment)] when she started in september she just managed to get on the trial with a lung function of 40% [another period is missing here] to cut a long story short we dont know any results from the trial but we do from the clinic visits weight is up to 56kg sats stable at 96_98 and her lung function at last visit was a whooping 59 % x x ]]

    It is possible this person manufactured this story to encourage other CF persons, but it is likely that she has a valid story to tell because the blogs appeared in QUEST for KALYDECO.

  • Reply to

    809 combo and responders

    by verityvoila Jun 23, 2014 6:50 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 23, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Verity, my response to your post does not show here.

  • Reply to

    809 combo and responders

    by verityvoila Jun 23, 2014 6:50 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 23, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    Verity, I like the results from JP Morgan models, which give:

    FEV-1 improvement

  • Reply to

    A post from facebook:

    by gladpick Jun 6, 2014 11:24 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 23, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    Don't get confused about individual's data with group averages. In the 661 Ph 2 trial, one 508 patient who is receiving a placebo had an increase of 26% for FEV1. Does it mean that the patient is faking! All are 508 homozygous patients, but the dispersion is huge.

  • Reply to

    A post from facebook:

    by gladpick Jun 6, 2014 11:24 AM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 23, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Getrich, the story quoted by Gladpick from Facebook sounds so real and internally consistent that it is very unlikely a fabrication. The daughter started the trial in September last year and finished the trial in March, then put on the extension study.

  • Reply to

    what is needed for approval?

    by verityvoila Jun 20, 2014 12:11 PM
    thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 22, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    The rollover study is also supposed to be a double-blinded trial, but some participants are finding out good enhancement for FEV1 and weight gains. Getrich, do you have anecdotal stories to tell?

  • thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 19, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    Verity, it is very difficult to understand his argument of molecular stability when the 508 CFTR is in a cell culture system. Any thing can happen in cultured cells.
    How can he believe in such results while he does not believe in Cohort 2 and Cohort 3 results of Phase 2.
    Only thing I am concerned is drug fatigue for a long term dosing. But there is no basis for that to occur.

    Good luck to you and to all longs.

  • thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Jun 18, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Verity, you exactly pointed out the very weak point of Porges' pseudo-science. They believe in molecular stability argument but do not believe in in vitro biology of Van Goor. Biology is a better predictor of clinical outcome than molecular argument is.

VRTX
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