I love the thumbs down on my post. It's called denial. Anyone who thinks NWBO is going up on these news stories is hallucinating. Now, I actually have no stake right now in NWBO. I trade it occasionally, always on the long side. I don't ever short stocks like this one, just in case. But the current news stories are destined to knock the price down, whether you boosters like that fact or not. Reality sucks, sometimes, but it's what it is.
The story that is being told by the news reports is a negative one for NWBO's stock price. The investigation proposed by Woodford is clearly being reported as an investigation of the management and its dealings...not of Phase V or outside critics. Whatever the accuracy of this depiction, there is no way that these stories will be other than at least a short-term negative for the stock price, I'm afraid.
I had actually been thinking much the same thing. If Woodford was primarily concerned about investigating Phase V he could have had that investigation conducted without the enhanced formal NWBO role. So what this suggests is that he wanted his man on the inside, where, as a Board member, he would command access to NWBO's OWN internal materials. Ultimately, I think that the more Woodford steps in, the better it will be for all shareholders, but let's not kid ourselves that this move is aimed at Phase V.
For the record, I am not currently a shareholder, having sold my small (1000 share) position for $4.95. I am not a long-term investor in NWBO, just a trader, but I find what is going on very fascinating and I do wish NWBO only the best with its research, for reasons of the greater public good. I fully expect to trade some shares as circumstances permit and warrant, but my interest is primarily a dispassionate one just now.
Agreed. And the low today was well above recent days' lows, suggesting that the downward trend channel may be reversing. I'm not a great believer in technical analysis but I care because so many traders do pay close attention. To me, the big picture here is that a major British hedge fund that has good success in biotech investing is up to a 28% ownership stake and still adding....and one can still buy the shares for about 75 cents less than their recent mega-purchase.
After a mixed set of trading results on LNCO I finally sold an 8000 share position at $26. Yes, I had lost some money on it, but only about $1,000, and selling was implicitly a recognition of error in buying it. But when I see it now and realize how much I avoided losing by selling then, I breathe a deep sigh of relief. The lesson here for all of us is that if a trade starts to go against you, it probably is a good indication that it was undertaken in error and ought to be abandoned. Far better to live to fight another day. Kind of a Dunkirk approach!
I think the staff's recommendation that the deal be rejected made a huge difference. Earlier, the company was sounding like the staff position would be aligned with its own.
The LA PSC hearings on CNL's contracted purchase at nearly $55 per share are now over. The hearing officer is expected to issue a decision in weeks and the full Commission to vote in early 2016. The price action in CNL stock, however, certainly doesn't indicate any degree of confidence that the Commission will approve the takeover.
In the next few weeks, NWBO will likely be subject to tax loss selling that will tend to depress the stock price below otherwise rational levels. As 2016 nears, and this selling abates, look for a reduction in pressure to the downside and an increase in bargain hunting. Similarly, shorts in NWBO who hold large paper gains will be in many cases looking to lock in their gains to balance out losses elsewhere in their portfolios. This short-covering will help drive the price higher as the end of the year nears. Bottom line: a plateau for a few weeks, followed by a rise into year-end. Of course, any actual news during this period could change the dynamic dramatically and instantaneously.
Again, you need to understand that I am trading the stock, so all applicable factors get weighed in -- not just the science. I am only interested in whether the current price offers an attractive risk/reward at the moment, and that factors in total float, insider ownership trends and concentration, short interest, price and price and volume history, etc. Sometimes the best companies have the worst stock prospects and vice versa. I certainly wish NWBO well with its science. Success would be a great thing for so many. But I do not need to know anything about the science to know when the stock is a good purchase or a good sell. If a major hedge fund that does deal in biotechnology takes a 28% stake in NWBO, and keeps adding to it, and I can buy some shares at $1 less than their most recent purchase price, I know what I need to know.
No, I spent $4500 for 1000 shares...read the corrected share total I immediately posted.
I do not claim to understand the science. I DO claim to understand what makes stocks go up and down, after a 45 year record of success in the markets.
Hey, all. New to the Board, with a new small position (just 10000 shares) in NWBO. Simple explanation: the odds, I think, are less than even that NWBO has a winning approach, but at this point ANY good news and resulting short squeeze will drive the price dramatically higher at once. And my thinking is that if Woodward is still committing major funds at $5.50 per share, why not pick up a speculative holding for $1 or so less? Seems to me that buying at $12 would have been foolish, but buying at a lower price than the one recently paid by a 28% stockholder with presumed sophistication and insights into biotechnology cannot be too bad a play.