They are a different model where they are using the internet to get their content out to their customers versus the high cost infrastructure of cable TV and satellite TV. Amazon similarly is a marketplace of all things purchaseable and orderable via their internet site. Netflix has a huge leg up and lead in setting up their "marketplace" for streaming video. I wonder if this is the wave of the future where neither cable or satellite will be the future of TV at all and all TV content will flow through the dumb pipes of internet lines. If that ends up being the sea change, I don't see any other company overtaking Netflix for the lead in this space unless they do a Steve Jobs iBooks type deal and try to corral a bunch of content providers into exclusively providing their products to Apple or Amazon, for example, to try and get higher prices direct from consumers.
I think they will do well but that won't nearly make up for lower iPhone & iPad sales. Apple really needs to get a big revenue stream from Apple TV but that won't happen until they get a lot more content providers on board. Probably dead money until then or rumors start floating for iPhone 7.
The price target of $150 is ridiculous. The 6S is not producing any growth. I do believe the 6 will produce some growth over the 5S as the second tier phone. Unless Apple TV starts fueling a lot of growth through content deals, I don't see Macs and iPads nor iTunes nor Apps making up for flat iPhones.
Apple did it once before and if iPhone 6 sales have bolstered sales for the quarter after $100 price reduction, may get upwardly revised earnings projection by Cook for the quarter.
With the 64gb iPhone 6, dropping $100 to the price point that people were accustomed to replacing their old iPhone at ($199 with contract, $649 w/o), I believe Apple's Sept & Dec quarters are going to be better than expected. The 6S is probably going to have 13-15M opening weekend sales, with my guess being 15M, but the second tier iPhone 6 is going to pull a lot of 5, 5S, and 5C upgraders. I don't recall which quarter it was but the same thing happened on one prior upgrade cycle where the second tier model had unexpectedly high sales bolstering the overall iPhone sales total. Also, the recent indication that a higher percentage of phone purchasers plan to buy iPhone instead of Android, may play out well with switchers to either the 6 or 6S. Something definitely to consider.
For Apple to say they are "on pace" to exceed the iphone 6 opening weekend sales has to be taken with a huge grain of salt considering preorder days are almost double this time around plus China in the mix. If they are just on pace to beat last year with twice the preorder time AND 27% greater demand created by adding China a month early, this is really bad. If the 6S was selling as good as the 6 and China was now added and the ordering time was doubled, wouldn't you think they'd be on pace to blow away last years opening weekend? If their pace is just 60% last year, with 6 adtl preorder days, they will put up 12M, but is that really good???
That actually is an excellent point. Their second tier iphone 6 may actually give them a boost this year to counter any weakness in the flagship sales. Ultimately their phone sales totals for the holiday quarter include all three levels not just the 6S. I still believe the Chinese preorder bubble being moved from Oct to Sept will cause overall flat sales in the holiday quarter.
1.). Apple has yet to confirm any record preorders. If they beat last years 4M 24 hour total, I think they would hype that up.
2.). iPhone 6s in every configuration except a few in Rose Gold, still easily available for preorder and delivery on 9/25 through Apple website.
3.). I went to ATT yesterday and upgraded to the 6 and the salesperson volunteered that 6s preorders were good but not nearly as good as the 6 launch last year. One store's story.
4.). Apple moved China launch date up from Oct quarter to Sept quarter. Even with this move forward of demand for the 6S, Apple has not announced a record of any kind, only the hope that the current pace will continue.
5.). How will the China bubble of preorders moved to the Sept Q effect the Oct Q in comparison to last year?
I agree with your assessment. Last year my friend ordered the 6 at 2 am and the delivery date was already 3-4 weeks beyond launch date. Now, 14.5 hours in, plenty of availability. Longs will say that it's due to great supply build meeting demand. Shorts will say that it's low demand. Unless Apple comes out Monday and announces record preorders, Aapl is headed for a $10 decline this week.
It's probably the best phone going but not much of an improvement. I hope they have something in the works for the 7 though. Somewhat surprised that they still insist on the 16gb as their entry level model when competitors are offering 32gb. Apple chose profits/margins over customer experience in my opinion by staying with that line up.
As far as cord-cutting, isn't everyone looking for an alternative to Comcast? I have them for internet only because there is no viable alternative where I live unless you want to drop to 1/15th of their speed. Hoping Apple will start loading a lot of content to Apple TV over the coming year and we can start getting direct content as we want instead of 1000 channels of garbage just to fatten the intermediary provider.
Only surprise was the $99 pencil and a $149 keyboard. Revolutionary!!!
The iPhone 6s has a faster processor, a better camera, and force touch which allows the user to access a few different menus and some swipe options. I don't see Apple selling more 6S phones than the 6 phones. Really, how much faster can phones move to make it worth upgrading? How many more pixels does a camera need on a phone? I've been a long term follower of Apple since before they launched the original iPhone and I really think that Apple will have a full year of lesser revenues and profits. The iPad Pro is cool but too big other than for business users. The Apple TV is opening a door that may someday bear incredible fruit for Apple but even with this upgrade, it really is just making your TV a giant extension of your iPhone and not much more. I still don't believe the watch will get much traction unless it starts doing things on it's own without the iPhone behind it.
I wouldn't say a clown. I'll say he is a very useful tool for his hedge fund and GS buddies. He has a lot of knowledge but you have to weigh who he is trying to help...the masses or a few of his dinner party buds.
Thanks for the reply and all valid thoughts. Where did you get the short level? I found 2.3M as of July 15th per nasdaq site.