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Activision Blizzard, Inc. Message Board

thomasvannier 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 13, 2013 12:49 PM Member since: Dec 12, 2011
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  • Full year results for Vivendi.

    My scenario is that they'll announce the sale of their majority stake in Activision Blizzard @13-14 dollars a share to management+PE funds

    Following that, special dividend + tender offer on 20% of the capital.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • thomasvannier by thomasvannier Feb 10, 2013 5:11 PM Flag

    Transaction: Vivendi agrees to sell its stake to a group led by Kotick, Morhaime, top managers + private equity funds. 684 million share@14 dollars= 9.5 B dollars.

    Licensing: Activision Blizzard sells the TV&Movies rights of Skylanders+World of Warcraft to Disney or Warner for 2 billion dollars.

    Dividend: 0.19 dollar a share - 200 million dollars

    Speciali Dividend: 3 dollars a share - 3.4 billions dollars

    Share buyback: 3 billion dollars program

    Debt financing: 1.2 billion dollars

    *All in all:
    - Kotick and Morhaime led group takes control of 50%+ of the company for around 5 billion dollars
    - Company remains floated
    - On the balance sheet: 4.4+2-0.2-3.4-3+1.2= 1 billion dollar in cash & 1.2 billion dollars of debt
    - Champaign

    Sentiment: Hold

  • thomasvannier by thomasvannier Dec 10, 2012 9:49 AM Flag

    Skylanders Giants is a huge hit and is already a much bigger success than last year's Skylanders Spyro's Adventures.

    Here are some figure as of December, 1th:
    wii: 1.047M (v354K + 195%)
    X360: 322K (v210K +53%)
    Ps3: 239K (160K 49%)
    All three platforms: 1,606M (vs 724K +121%)

    This does not include bundles, wiiu and DS3 sales.

    When it comes to toys, NPD said that it did +300% in October and +250% in November in the US.

    NOW, the big difference with last year is that there is no shortage of toys.

    Last year, the franchise did 200M dollars in sales in Q4. This will easily top 500M in Q4 2012 in my opinion.

    Regards

    Sentiment: Buy

  • thomasvannier by thomasvannier Aug 2, 2012 11:03 AM Flag

    My take: Activision Blizzard is gonna buy its own shares from Vivendi at around 10 dollars a unit through the use of existing cash (around 3.8 billion dollars) and leverage.

    As a result the EPS is going to explode and the share price go up.

  • Skylanders have done very well

    Diablo 3 has done exceptionnaly well

    wow I believe is flat despite Diablo and competition, which us a great achievement.

  • Reply to

    The truth be told

    by mackgreene33 Jul 12, 2012 10:13 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Jul 13, 2012 6:19 PM Flag

    the game sold incredibly well and the rmah related revenus will surprise you.

    I'd say at least 10 million games sold during the term of which 2/3 digital
    + fees coming from korean internet centres
    + rmah which is massive

    Only on Diablo 3 Acti will meet its outlook for the term...

  • Reply to

    SWTOR best leveling MMO, end game fails

    by stkinvestor68 Feb 23, 2012 3:29 AM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 29, 2012 11:31 PM Flag

    Official and unofficial forums are full of complaints from players.

    Server population is dropping

    Have a look at xfire and it'll give you an indication of how fast the game is leveling down.

  • Reply to

    slot machine

    by Shineablo Feb 22, 2012 1:54 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 23, 2012 7:32 AM Flag

    Yeah, you're totally right: Diablo 3 could be an unbelievable success with its auction house system!

    Activision could become a 50 billion dollars company!

    Regards,

    ps: by the way, SWTOR is dead:
    http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

  • Reply to

    swtor sales down

    by mngtscrwdup Feb 14, 2012 3:34 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 17, 2012 11:46 AM Flag

    For once I agree with you jumpingsheep,

    Swtor has had very good initial sales but is bound to be a major disapointment.

    Reading dedicated forums helps understanding that the game is flawed and that there is little or no room for improvement.

    Right now, not only sales are slowing down dramatically but retention rate seems to be very worrying. On XFire the number of daily users has gone from 12000 to 6000 in less thant 1 month and a half.

    The thing is that not only do investors have high expectations for SWTOR, but EA's business plan for 2012 is based on good retention performances.

    Thus, not only will we have a huge dispointment with future SWTOR subcribers annoucements, but also a profit warning for the company.

  • Reply to

    Skylanders big enough to matter?

    by janelandmatt1 Dec 5, 2011 4:48 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 10, 2012 8:35 AM Flag

    Skylanders ranks 8th in terms of games sales and represents 22% of accessories sold in the period...
    Overall it is the most important game in terms of sales in January 2012..

  • thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 9, 2012 8:51 PM Flag

    Rest in peace man...

    EA is going nowhere while Activision Blizzard is thriving...

  • Reply to

    Everything Looks Good, but...

    by dehui616 Feb 9, 2012 6:38 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 9, 2012 8:07 PM Flag

    I think you're absolutely right. People do not realize how massive a phenomenon the Diablo real money auction house could be...

  • Reply to

    Everything Looks Good, but...

    by dehui616 Feb 9, 2012 6:38 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 9, 2012 6:40 PM Flag

    The figures include Vivendi's 35m shares sale.
    Excluding it, there is no major movement..

  • Reply to

    Brilliant results and brilliant outlook!

    by thomasvannier Feb 9, 2012 5:28 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 9, 2012 6:37 PM Flag

    it's because diablo 3 will be released in Q2, not in Q1 and also because cod mw3'dlcs launch later compared to last year.

  • Really impressed after hearing the conference call from my parisian office!

  • Reply to

    headed for $15 or below

    by mngtscrwdup Feb 8, 2012 6:12 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 9, 2012 12:38 PM Flag

    maybe this departure is linked to the 1.7m swtor subs issue. There was a discrepancy between the coment "swtor has generated 1.7...in a little over one month..." and "we currently havec 1.7m active subscribers". All this is not clear and maybe this guy did not want to endorse such a lack of transparency.

  • thomasvannier by thomasvannier Feb 7, 2012 8:56 AM Flag

    From the Wall Street Journal

    "
    Activision Blizzard, the maker of intense videogames such as “Call of Duty” and “World of Warcraft,” isn’t known for kid-oriented videogames. That perception changed somewhat last fall, when it had a surprise hit with the kids’ game “Skylanders: Spyro’s Adventure.”

    Activision Publishing
    Spyro, the fire-breathing purple dragon, appears in the video game from Activision Blizzard, “Skylanders: Spyro’s Adventure.”

    Now, the world’s biggest videogame maker wants to ride that momentum – and a unique revenue stream it created – by launching a sequel called “Skylanders Giants” later this year.

    The first “Skylanders” is innovative because Activision sells accessories meant to used with the videogame, which comes on a disc for the major gaming consoles. The peripherals include action figure-like toys that sit atop another accessory, called the Portal of Power.

    Each toy represents a different character gamers can play in the videogame, which allows people to roam around and pummel enemies in a virtual world. People who want to play as all the characters have to buy each toy. That allows Activision to sell a starter pack of the game, which includes three toys and the portal, for $70, rather than the $50 or $60 most games cost. And that doesn’t include the extra characters, which sell for $10 each.

    Activision Publishing CEO Eric Hirshberg said in addition to being able to squeeze more revenue out of a single game title, having physical toys gave the company a better retail presence with partners such as Toys ‘R’ Us. “We had this in the toy aisle,” he said. “We had this in the videogame aisle. We had these in the checkout line.”

    “Skylanders Giants” will be released this fall, featuring a new game and eight new toys. These figurines will be more than twice the size of the original ones and will cost more, though Hirshberg declined to reveal the price.

    Accessories from the first “Skylanders” game will work on the new one. Hirschberg said the sequel might be even more profitable because many buyers will already own the Portal of Power, which was the most expensive part to make for the first game.

    Hirschberg declined to reveal sales figures of Skylanders, citing Activision’s plans to release its fourth-quarter results Thursday.

    Activision found success in pairing physical accessories to videogames half a decade ago with its “Guitar Hero” franchise. Hirshberg said the “Skylanders” model of pairing games with toys could be the next big thing.

    “It’s a new genre within the gaming industry that could find some staying power,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some fast followers.”"

  • Reply to

    SWTOR: 1.7M subscribers

    by trader_brad Feb 1, 2012 5:14 PM
    thomasvannier thomasvannier Feb 1, 2012 7:07 PM Flag

    "Star Wars®: The Old Republic™ has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through
    more than 2 million units in a little over one month."

    Thiq does not mean that SWTOR currently has 1.7M subcribers as a 30 day free play is included in the game.

    It does include subcribers who then unsubscribed.

  • Revealed: Skylanders' secret success
    Christopher Dring

    by Christopher Dring
    about 2 hours ago
    inShare Email
    Revealed: Skylanders' secret success

    Skylanders: Spyro’s Adventure was a bigger hit than you might think.

    Activision’s new kids IP – which lets consumers buy character figurines and bring them to life in the game – just about crept into last year’s Top 50 chart at No. 48. But, if you add in the various character packs available to buy at Tesco, Toys ‘R’ Us and most major games retailers, the title would have been the eighth biggest seller of the entire year.

    That’s ahead of big sellers such as Saints Row: The Third and L.A. Noire.

    Although Chart-Track doesn’t publish a revenue chart, the stat tracker revealed to MCV the title was the 13th highest cash generative game of 2011.

    Skylanders was one of the top toys in the US over Christmas, with sell-outs reported. Even in the UK, some popular figurines are in short supply. Activision hopes to remedy the problem with extra characters released this month.

    There is also a free-to-play online social game available titled Skylanders Spyro’s Universe.

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