Full year results for Vivendi.
My scenario is that they'll announce the sale of their majority stake in Activision Blizzard @13-14 dollars a share to management+PE funds
Following that, special dividend + tender offer on 20% of the capital.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Transaction: Vivendi agrees to sell its stake to a group led by Kotick, Morhaime, top managers + private equity funds. 684 million share@14 dollars= 9.5 B dollars.
Licensing: Activision Blizzard sells the TV&Movies rights of Skylanders+World of Warcraft to Disney or Warner for 2 billion dollars.
Dividend: 0.19 dollar a share - 200 million dollars
Speciali Dividend: 3 dollars a share - 3.4 billions dollars
Share buyback: 3 billion dollars program
Debt financing: 1.2 billion dollars
*All in all:
- Kotick and Morhaime led group takes control of 50%+ of the company for around 5 billion dollars
- Company remains floated
- On the balance sheet: 4.4+2-0.2-3.4-3+1.2= 1 billion dollar in cash & 1.2 billion dollars of debt
Skylanders Giants is a huge hit and is already a much bigger success than last year's Skylanders Spyro's Adventures.
Here are some figure as of December, 1th:
wii: 1.047M (v354K + 195%)
X360: 322K (v210K +53%)
Ps3: 239K (160K 49%)
All three platforms: 1,606M (vs 724K +121%)
This does not include bundles, wiiu and DS3 sales.
When it comes to toys, NPD said that it did +300% in October and +250% in November in the US.
NOW, the big difference with last year is that there is no shortage of toys.
Last year, the franchise did 200M dollars in sales in Q4. This will easily top 500M in Q4 2012 in my opinion.
My take: Activision Blizzard is gonna buy its own shares from Vivendi at around 10 dollars a unit through the use of existing cash (around 3.8 billion dollars) and leverage.
As a result the EPS is going to explode and the share price go up.
Skylanders have done very well
Diablo 3 has done exceptionnaly well
wow I believe is flat despite Diablo and competition, which us a great achievement.
the game sold incredibly well and the rmah related revenus will surprise you.
I'd say at least 10 million games sold during the term of which 2/3 digital
+ fees coming from korean internet centres
+ rmah which is massive
Only on Diablo 3 Acti will meet its outlook for the term...
Official and unofficial forums are full of complaints from players.
Server population is dropping
Have a look at xfire and it'll give you an indication of how fast the game is leveling down.
Yeah, you're totally right: Diablo 3 could be an unbelievable success with its auction house system!
Activision could become a 50 billion dollars company!
ps: by the way, SWTOR is dead:
For once I agree with you jumpingsheep,
Swtor has had very good initial sales but is bound to be a major disapointment.
Reading dedicated forums helps understanding that the game is flawed and that there is little or no room for improvement.
Right now, not only sales are slowing down dramatically but retention rate seems to be very worrying. On XFire the number of daily users has gone from 12000 to 6000 in less thant 1 month and a half.
The thing is that not only do investors have high expectations for SWTOR, but EA's business plan for 2012 is based on good retention performances.
Thus, not only will we have a huge dispointment with future SWTOR subcribers annoucements, but also a profit warning for the company.
Skylanders ranks 8th in terms of games sales and represents 22% of accessories sold in the period...
Overall it is the most important game in terms of sales in January 2012..
I think you're absolutely right. People do not realize how massive a phenomenon the Diablo real money auction house could be...
it's because diablo 3 will be released in Q2, not in Q1 and also because cod mw3'dlcs launch later compared to last year.
maybe this departure is linked to the 1.7m swtor subs issue. There was a discrepancy between the coment "swtor has generated 1.7...in a little over one month..." and "we currently havec 1.7m active subscribers". All this is not clear and maybe this guy did not want to endorse such a lack of transparency.
From the Wall Street Journal
Activision Blizzard, the maker of intense videogames such as “Call of Duty” and “World of Warcraft,” isn’t known for kid-oriented videogames. That perception changed somewhat last fall, when it had a surprise hit with the kids’ game “Skylanders: Spyro’s Adventure.”
Spyro, the fire-breathing purple dragon, appears in the video game from Activision Blizzard, “Skylanders: Spyro’s Adventure.”
Now, the world’s biggest videogame maker wants to ride that momentum – and a unique revenue stream it created – by launching a sequel called “Skylanders Giants” later this year.
The first “Skylanders” is innovative because Activision sells accessories meant to used with the videogame, which comes on a disc for the major gaming consoles. The peripherals include action figure-like toys that sit atop another accessory, called the Portal of Power.
Each toy represents a different character gamers can play in the videogame, which allows people to roam around and pummel enemies in a virtual world. People who want to play as all the characters have to buy each toy. That allows Activision to sell a starter pack of the game, which includes three toys and the portal, for $70, rather than the $50 or $60 most games cost. And that doesn’t include the extra characters, which sell for $10 each.
Activision Publishing CEO Eric Hirshberg said in addition to being able to squeeze more revenue out of a single game title, having physical toys gave the company a better retail presence with partners such as Toys ‘R’ Us. “We had this in the toy aisle,” he said. “We had this in the videogame aisle. We had these in the checkout line.”
“Skylanders Giants” will be released this fall, featuring a new game and eight new toys. These figurines will be more than twice the size of the original ones and will cost more, though Hirshberg declined to reveal the price.
Accessories from the first “Skylanders” game will work on the new one. Hirschberg said the sequel might be even more profitable because many buyers will already own the Portal of Power, which was the most expensive part to make for the first game.
Hirschberg declined to reveal sales figures of Skylanders, citing Activision’s plans to release its fourth-quarter results Thursday.
Activision found success in pairing physical accessories to videogames half a decade ago with its “Guitar Hero” franchise. Hirshberg said the “Skylanders” model of pairing games with toys could be the next big thing.
“It’s a new genre within the gaming industry that could find some staying power,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some fast followers.”"
"Star Wars®: The Old Republic™ has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through
more than 2 million units in a little over one month."
Thiq does not mean that SWTOR currently has 1.7M subcribers as a 30 day free play is included in the game.
It does include subcribers who then unsubscribed.
Revealed: Skylanders' secret success
by Christopher Dring
about 2 hours ago
Revealed: Skylanders' secret success
Skylanders: Spyro’s Adventure was a bigger hit than you might think.
Activision’s new kids IP – which lets consumers buy character figurines and bring them to life in the game – just about crept into last year’s Top 50 chart at No. 48. But, if you add in the various character packs available to buy at Tesco, Toys ‘R’ Us and most major games retailers, the title would have been the eighth biggest seller of the entire year.
That’s ahead of big sellers such as Saints Row: The Third and L.A. Noire.
Although Chart-Track doesn’t publish a revenue chart, the stat tracker revealed to MCV the title was the 13th highest cash generative game of 2011.
Skylanders was one of the top toys in the US over Christmas, with sell-outs reported. Even in the UK, some popular figurines are in short supply. Activision hopes to remedy the problem with extra characters released this month.
There is also a free-to-play online social game available titled Skylanders Spyro’s Universe.