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Winthrop Realty Trust Message Board

thorntttt 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 18, 2014 3:44 PM Member since: Nov 16, 2006
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  • thorntttt by thorntttt Aug 18, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    Terrible news today in the WSJ on natural gas prices..very negative....but natural gas stocks just down a little. But then this was a very good overall day in the market...be very interested to see how this acts on a couple of bad down days.....

  • I have not bought yet but my thinking is five years. Will natural gas prices be considerably higher in five years? Probably yes. Will that create a situation where XCO's results will be considerably better? Almost certainly yes. The long term return for the market is around 9% and there are very, very, very few investors who achieve that rate of return. If this stock doubles from here in five years the return will be around 15% compounded for that period.
    always looking for different opinions.

  • I am looking at this NOW at this price....the bad news seems to be that the stock has been in a serious decline which encourages more selling. Later in the year tax selling will create more sellers. Pickens has sold out. There is the very confusing deal with #$%$ which most people/analysts seem to hate. There is concern about the balance sheet but the secondary and $500 unsecured financing should have negated that for at least the medium term.
    On the other hand the company in controlled by three extremely successful investors-they control the board and have all paid much higher prices for their stock positions.And I find it very encouraging that Prem and Wilbur backstopped the $5 offering with the guarantee that they would buy any unsubscribed stock. They have ALL the information......if things were really as bad as some on this board think I very much doubt they would have committed so much more money here at $5. Billionaires don't become billionaires by throwing good money after bad.
    I also see great concern over the capital needed to buy out the #$%$ wells over the next couple of years. But that is just capital investment....maybe not the highest return but not money just spent on dry holes. I also see that they increased their capital budget...$80 million....if they thought that NG prices would hold...but now are reconsidering. But for me the point is that they COULD increase their budget by that large a number even though they do have the #$%$ requirements coming forward in the next couple of years.
    Still looking for more input but I think maybe that this is a situation where people are dwelling too much on the past and the short-intermediate future. The old saying...dead money....vomits out of this situation. Also uncertainty also vomits out of this situation. Wall Street and most investors hate those two situations but they are the mother's milk of opportunity for an investor with a slightly longer time frame.

  • Reply to

    UPL

    by eighteverything Aug 16, 2014 10:59 AM
    thorntttt thorntttt Aug 16, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    when people get negative the almost never change their mind. I have watched XCO for some time now and owned it twice....lost net a little money. That it is a very weak stock in a good market is more than troubling. Stocks do not make all time lows for no reason. It has also gone under $5 a share which is a very bad sign. Many institutions cannot buy stocks under $5. Pickens has sold his stock so one of the four famous investors has left. Management continues to be shaken out. There have been few losers this year so when it gets to be tax selling time XCO will face lots and lots of tax loss selling.
    Yet the VERY, VERY smart guys were willing to load onto their positions on the secondary.
    So WHY is this stock getting so smashed? Was that deal so awful? Even if it was a bad deal it appears that it is just a low return use of capital and not a loss situation. Surely after the secondary and recent financing there cannot be any financial trouble ahead.
    Would appreciate any summaries of why the stock continues to decline. And please; no hate mail. People who bash on these boards are usually those who have lost money. The stock is down, down, down and from here is an entirely new platform from where the losses occurred

  • thorntttt by thorntttt Aug 12, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    typical of many great companies...no one on these boards follow them...but the list of big firms asking questions on the last call shows that the brokerage houses have found this gem....creating new value all the time with tremendous opportunities in the real estate market in Europe....and lots of leverage to KW from their earned portion of superior growth within their co-owned properties.

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