Billy, from what I've read: about 1M GPD (one Rober Rapier EIA reference below)
"maintenance usually peaks in March, and then crude oil demand picks back up as refiners gear up for the summer driving season. The difference in refinery demand between this time of year and summer is generally around a million barrels per day, so even if nothing else changes that storage build should start to flatten."
Concur here, Blu. And Iran meeting delay poses doubt of a deal. I disagree with CNBC oil-girl Sen suggesting 50's from here. No way. Nobody's cutting production. Tanks are 80 year tops. What's that 95% full ?
Billy, Berto. I'm short oil. Just added to that short pos. My guess is the delay in Iran talks and the lack of a deal. Appearances of a no-deal. It's excuss enough to fuel buying to the recent range high and test of that high. And an opportunity for shorts to add. I was hoping for this. Unfortunately I didn't expect as much movement as we got in RUSS. Anyway - that's my take.
Iran is a joke. They're highlighting the fact they can't build a functional carrier. One 3000 Rounds/sec Close In Weapons System (little R2D2 looking thing) will vaporize all 20 high speed boats in less than a minute.
Billy, I appreciate the data. But also appreciate your opinions and words of reason. I concur, oil prices are influenced by Saudi and US intentions, more than the actual data. Cat's outta the bag regarding rig count which sparked the recent short-cover: # rigs don't soeak to production. 100's of rigs are 10-15 bpd small ops. Nevertheless, thanks again.
I understand Saudis are trying to crush Fracking and recapture market share. Still this Citi Article is confusing...."driving a wedge above production cost" ??
Citi: Oil to fall to $20
Citigroup calls the development of unconventional oil sources such as shale, oil sands and deepwater drilling "the most disruptive geopolitical factor in markets since the 1970s."
And despite the best efforts by OPEC and Saudi Arabia not to cut production and accept lower prices in order to pick up market share, the horse is already out of the barn. As soon as the price rebounds, these sources will continue to provide competition to OPEC, which has lost two of its biggest customers, possibly for good, according to Morse.
Saudi Arabia exported 1.6 million barrels a day to the U.S. in 2013, states the report. That fell to to 800,000 barrels this winter. Exports to China are down by half from their peak.
"Markets have, in Citi's view, correctly depicted the heart of the lower price oil environment as a result of a conflict between markets and marketing influence, or more directly between the impacts of the shale revolution on OPEC's ability to drive a significant 'permanent' wedge well above production costs to maximize revenues for OPEC and other oil-producing countries. No matter what the ultimate outcome, it looks exceedingly unlikely for OPEC to return to its old way of doing business. While many analysts have seen in past market crises 'the end of OPEC,' this time around might well be different."
Few thoughts on oil....
We still have over production both US and OPEC
We have a huge over supply to work through; Middle-man (traders) set the price
China has immediate impact on oil; China CPI and PPI #s are growing worse, not better.
Amid the talk of recovery, everybody still concedes we dip first. Citibank says we're going MUCH lower.
Nobody's left here, Mauler. Listen..... It's just you... The room's echoing, man! You run 'em all off. Your own cheers....reverbing back n forth.
Yeah. First, the good news, the Daily technicals look fairly decent. Divergence, indicative of an up turn. The bad....the Daily chart is a poor indicator of tomorrow. The Hourly and 15-minute charts are disgustingly putrid, primarily there ain't Divergence within nine blocks of here. The reason for this is high volume control: These sellers like to hammer down in one hour and then move "sideways" which makes for horrible technicals, because sideways (to the mean average) is "code" for continuation i.e. Gathering strength to drop again - normally. Sideways is a pull-back, but not in price, it's a "time-pullback". However, nothing's normal with NG, and I ain't in this to sell here. As always I'll hold and make up losses in trading the Hourky Chart swings. It's just unpleasant and tougher when the bias is down. And no way I'm shorting this - too much upside risk.
No doubt, Nova. At least a Monaco condo. Nova, Im looking at everything, increasing volume, divergence, reverse divergence, close & parallel (my own observation but very reliable) - any leading indicator I can get my head around.
Here's the trouble we're up against. I noticed the scary huge volume accumulation beginning back August. Sat at a bar with a prof trader (first time in 23 years trading, rare and lucky). Actually had charts with me. He looked at the volume.....said "Watch out for that...lotta power". I don't know if it was just well played, anticipated on the basis of improved capacity, or a vendetta against last Winter Rally Bulls, or just simple greed for dirt cheap shares. But somebody has a sheet-load of influence via that volume.,and they are dumping on any pensive hope of a pop. Until those folks turn - we gotta be nimble-footed. Swing trading the narrow range and Out more than in. GL out there, man.
Nova, you played the fall-out from 10 better than I. Unfortunately, My prediction of 10 stopped there, following calls to the 18 high, a .618 retracement and a test of the high. I had no opinion beyond 10. However, nova, you're wrong about one thing: predictability. Much of the market's action is predictable - trouble is it's difficult to articulate why. And more importantly, it's difficult to believe - emotions are constantly undermining the technicals. I did see the weakness at 10 - clear as day -, but I didn't want to believe it. So I ignored it. Idiotic on my part. I know....terrific. Believe me, I paid for that complacency. Go back and look at the Daily chart before price dropped thru 10. (A custom chart in Bigcharts allows you to enter dates.) The slow stochastic descended deep below 10. It hit 4 or 5. That means one thing - we going lower. I knew precisely that, but couldn't believe it. And folks here were already #$%$ because I'd predicted the 10 and they rode it from 18. Anyway, good call on your part. And my apologies.
Hey all. Mike oil looks the most positive based on the combination of Hourly and Daily charts. I missed the short reaction rally and rode it down with but orders. Much larger than I'd like. On the Hourly chart, I'd expect oil to bounce a little tomorrow morning UCO to 7.20 and I'll reduce my long to 1/4 of current. Playing small and nimble these days. And trying to play against the saw-tooth do I don't miss a rally - also good risk management.
GASL looks the least positive because today's action still leaves price at the top of the Daily chart headed down. That's not to say that I want to sell. I'm building a pile of GASL.
NG - the red-headed step child of commodities. Always under the power of limitless volume. Again trying to play the Hourly channel (Bollinger Band to Mean Average) buying UGAZ at the lows, playing against the long tooth, against the down trend, so I don't miss a rally. Rarely shorting this one even on the hourly.
Yeah, Wallace. I'm in and out on the Hourly Bollinger Band or Mean Average. Just hot long again at 3.11. Doing horribly in my ST oil trade today - failed to punch out at 7.20. Need a bounce in UCO to 7.20 to get even or 7.30 for a small profit. Slowly building a GASL pile.
Long Oil -- Was getting killed this morning. But I suspected, like the Winter Blizzard, oil selling was overblown. A purchase at the lower Bollinger band - per my simple rules - made it all better. Nothing like Trippling-down a loser pre-inventory.