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People's United Financial Inc. Message Board

thriftmannj 392 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 11, 2016 3:49 PM Member since: Jan 6, 2004
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  • Schumer an Cuomo don't realize the precarious position First Niagara is in. It NEEDS this deal to go through in order to survive. If any governor should be upset by this deal it is Governor Kasich, because KEY is definitely getting the short end of this deal. KEY is (or at least was) a solid bank with good earnings. They are buying a bank that is rotten to the core. This deal is worse for KEY than the HSBC deal was for FNFG.
    More jobs will be lost if the deal doesn't go through than if it does.

  • Key has a tangible book value of a little over $11.00 a share, and before the FNFG deal was announced, was trading at about $13.50 a share, or about 25% over tangible book. FNFG has a tangible book of about $4.00 a share.
    If you think that is bad, take a look at the PE of KEY, and compare that to the PE of FNFG.
    Do you think your board of directors made a good decision?

  • Reply to

    First Niagara News - TAKEOVER GETTING CLOSER

    by stocksinc_c Dec 17, 2014 7:16 PM
    thriftmannj thriftmannj Dec 19, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Heated up!
    Dow up over 400 and FNFG DOWN. TBV is now in the 3's, no matter what management may state. FNFG is a sure bet loser.

  • thriftmannj by thriftmannj Dec 19, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Very tactful

  • It appears that now a deal is in the works to sell First Niagara. Most likely for around $8 a share. While this is a great price for a stock that is probably worth only around $3-5 a share, it does seem unfair to shareholders who purchased at a higher price. There are many shareholders who bought the newly issued shares at $8.50 and even more that are still holding from higher prices. It is going to be a loss for them. While not as much of a loss as if the stock continued to drop, at least without the sale, a shareholder could have decided when or whether to sell for a loss or to wait it out for a long term gain. Now they are being handed a capital loss that is out of their control. Management may be congratulating themselves for getting $8 for a stock that was just trading for $7, but this stock traded for $14+ not so long ago. With change of control agreements and restricted shares received at $0 per share kicking in with a buyout, executives will be doing very well for themselves. Not so well for the vast majority or shareholders though.

  • thriftmannj by thriftmannj Nov 9, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    Several brokerages have added First Niagara to their list of non-marginable securities. For all of you cheerleaders- that is not a good thing.

  • thriftmannj by thriftmannj Oct 28, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    I heard that the board of directors discussed breaking up the bank into 4 separate banks and selling off the parts. The divided entities would be Western Pennsylvania, Eastern Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, and Connecticut+ Mass + Eastern New York. The distances between branches have caused the "synergies" to not work to the benefit of the bank as intended. Breaking up the network and selling off the parts would probably be beneficial to the shareholders and would make sense in light of the failure of the combined entity to realize any benefit.

  • Reply to

    thriftmann-mr short!

    by matsky5 Oct 26, 2014 3:09 PM
    thriftmannj thriftmannj Oct 28, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    You figured me out. The stock lost 20% of its value in a couple days because I spread rumors about an impairment charge of 800 mil. and another undisclosed missing 45 mil. It didn't really happen and billions of dollars were lost by the sinking stock were only caused by my little posts here on this Yahoo message board.
    Maybe I should be saying "FNFG is a great stock and pays a great dividend" I am sure you would find that to be more acceptable and the stock would skyrocket. So you just keep collecting your dividend and watch your principal disappear.
    Incidentally, read the message I posted before the news came out.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Just wait until you see what the FDIC is going to do. The $45,000,000 involves a whistle blower complaint made by an employee who was fired after many years with the company. Putting the money back is not going to be good enough. Penalties will follow. Wrongful termination lawsuits are also on the horizon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • thriftmannj by thriftmannj Oct 24, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    Someone shut the lights and lock the doors on your way out.

  • thriftmannj thriftmannj Oct 23, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    The stock is hovering around multi year lows, and is trending only lower. No takeover possible AT ALL, because this bank is a LIABILITY, not an ASSET. There is no way buying it could possibly benefit any other bank. Not at any price.

  • Reply to

    Divi

    by ceoeagle Oct 17, 2014 11:42 AM
    thriftmannj thriftmannj Oct 21, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    You obviously do not know the difference between book value and TANGIBLE book value. I suggest you learn it before investing any more money in banks.

  • Reply to

    Divi

    by ceoeagle Oct 17, 2014 11:42 AM
    thriftmannj thriftmannj Oct 17, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Dow up 300 points, PBCT down 2%+ . They declared a 16 1/2 cent dividend, and you lost 35 cents in principal. Nearly every other stock is up. It makes ZERO sense to be in this stock for the dividend. Unless you are shorting it, it is not a wise investment. This bank is not worth a penny more than Tangible Book value. No prospects for increased earnings ever and no prayer of a takeover. Only increasing executive pay and expense and increasing loan losses. $8.50 a share is all it is worth. That is why PBCT is one of the most heavily shorted stocks.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $400MM bond offering-but who cares?

    by serpentine290 Jun 29, 2014 6:13 AM
    thriftmannj thriftmannj Jun 29, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    They borrowed the money so they can continue to do buybacks. They previously had run out of money, so there was no way to prop up the stock. This allows them to continue on their course, which is the only course that they know how to follow.

  • Is this company Apple? How can they give $500,000 a year to each outside director when they hardly turn a profit. This is complete disregard for shareholders.

    On another topic, the car loan business at First Niagara is failing miserably. So many repossesed cars that they cant get rid of them. They actually stopped repossesing some cars because the cost was going to be more than the recovery.

  • Here are some moves the CEO and board should be making to increase earnings-
    1. Give up on this new investment you dubbed "common rails". Nobody can even explain what it is, and by the time anything gets done, it will be obsolete anyway. Crosby- You are the only person on planet earth who thinks it is a good idea. It is time to admit you are wrong. Get over your ego and listen to the experts and scrap this ridiculous nonsense.
    2. FNFG is sinking under high interest debt- GET RID OF THE DEBT!!!. FNFG is paying 8% on borrowed money. FNFG doesn't earn 8% on anything it does. It doesn't even net 2%. The most profitable thing First Niagara could do with its money would be to pay off debt. Paying down the debt would be immediately profitable. Every penny of earnings should be used to get rid of high priced debt. FNFG is paying an 8% dividend on the preferred stock. Buying back this debt will immediately earn an 8% return.
    3. Eliminate the common dividend and use that money to also buy back preferred shares. Using a 4% dividend to get rid of an 8% debt would have an immediate doubling benefit to shareholders. There is no reason to borrow money at 8% so you can pay a 4% dividend. IT DOESN"T MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE. And don't worry that the stock price will suffer if the dividend is suspended. You already took care of that. And if you tell the analyst that you are using the 4% dividend to earn 8%, they would applaud the intelligent idea.
    4. Sell all fixed mortgages NOW while you still can. First Niagara is carrying 15 and 30 year mortgages on the books that have interest rates of 3.5%- 5%. That is OK today because you pay 0% on deposits.This anomaly is not going to continue for 30 years. We are going to have inflation. We already have inflation but the government is in denial. Rates will go up. What happens in 5 years when FN has to pay grandma 10% on her CD and is stuck collecting 4.5% on Mrs. Jones mortgage for 25 more years?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The beauty of FNFG : Quaterly Dividend.

    by u_shorts_r_toast Jan 28, 2014 5:00 PM
    thriftmannj thriftmannj Jan 29, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    I almost thought you were serious, but now I realize that you have to be just kidding. You lost $2, or 20% of principal in one week, and then got an 8 cent dividend, which amounts to 1%. Lost 19%. Nobody in their right mind could ever think that you were ahead of the game under those circumstances.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • thriftmannj thriftmannj Jan 28, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    Under what conditions? Declining credit quality, surging loan defaults, UNSAFE dividend, clueless management, unprofitable branches, heavy debt burden, under capitalized, and declining, if any, earnings for the next 3-4 year. I would say that is exactly when you value a bank at a percentage of tangible book.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • thriftmannj thriftmannj Jan 28, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    Tangible book value is what you use to VALUE a bank under conditions like these.
    Did investopedia tell you to buy FNFG last week at over $10 a share?

  • Reply to

    3-4 YEARS OF LIMBO

    by buckmaster1997 Jan 27, 2014 9:40 PM
    thriftmannj thriftmannj Jan 28, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    You are one savvy investor. Having your money in a stock that drops 20% in one week but (for the moment) still pays a 3.5% dividend is obviously a good way to supplement your income
    .
    If you want a dividend, buy a utility stock. They have much less volatility.

PBCT
15.63+0.23(+1.49%)May 24 4:00 PMEDT