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TIBCO Software Inc. Message Board

tibco_monkey 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 4, 2014 7:40 AM Member since: Jun 5, 2002
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  • Signing off and leaving the trees to join the other land-bound bipeds.

    Adios muchachos!
    TibcoMonkey.

  • Reply to

    TIBCO CEO has a fabulous idea !!!!!

    by victorytree33 Oct 28, 2014 7:34 PM
    tibco_monkey tibco_monkey Oct 30, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    If he has the time after all this intensive basketball startegizing, do you think Vivek might petition the buyer to pay the original price shareholders were promised? It's quite understandable that shareholders are now largely irrelevant but still it would be a nice gesture considering it was shareholders who ultimately made it possible for Vivek to buy the Kings in the first place. Perhaps shareholders could employ the Karma argument, something that vivek may have heard of.

  • tibco_monkey by tibco_monkey Oct 17, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    If the deal had fallen through, TIBX could have touched single digits in the panic situation of the last few days. Recovery from there would likely have made getting past $15 a challenge. 61c is a small price to pay to avoid that nightmare.

  • It could be that Tibco's contract with GS did not explicitly specify that shares needed to be counted correctly. That's likely the reason for the cut-rate $47M fee! If GS knew they were required to count the shares correctly, the fee might have been $150M. So this this is really an even Stephen scenario!

    “In its Sept. 27, 2014, presentation to the Board of Directors, Goldman Sachs, using the spreadsheet, used a share count that overstated [Tibco's] fully diluted common stock by the number of shares of restricted stock,” the filing says.

    Boz, what do you think? Does Mr. Ranadive need to put away his basketball shoes for a little while and take a look at the deal here? As CEO, and chairman of the BOD, it would be nice if he knew what shareholders were being offered. He might have more important things to do on the basketball front but shareholders need a little attention too!
    The class action attorneys must be frothing at the mouth at the prospects presented by Ranadive's negligence.

  • tibco_monkey tibco_monkey Oct 14, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    I think the trip from $69, just 2 years ago, to $108, a few weeks ago, was irrationally exuberant! There are a lot of gaps between those two numbers that will need to be reinforced.

  • tibco_monkey by tibco_monkey Oct 13, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    Were it not for the offer, your prediction would have come to pass with TIBX in the low teens. Might even have hit the single digits. Any doubt at all and Wall Street is taking no prisoners.

    What a bummer, even when you're right, you're wrong!

    :)

  • Jan '14 $24 puts can be had for around 70c. That locks you into at least $23.30 pps and allows you play the outside bet of another offer until Jan 21st.

    Given the current turmoil, that's an interesting percentage play IMHO.

  • Reply to

    Deal is solid

    by dickiefry Oct 9, 2014 11:39 AM
    tibco_monkey tibco_monkey Oct 10, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Without this offer, Tibco would be around $15, if that. Timing of offer extremely was fortunate for TIBX shareholders. We found a sheltered harbour just before a massive storm hit.

    Congrats all.

  • tibco_monkey tibco_monkey Oct 2, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    Makes sense but there seems to be something wrong with HP management that even something this obvious is invisible to them. You would think HP would have realized by now it needs to go the IBM route and match IBM on software and services. For some unfathomable reason, HP still thinks there's a future in focussing on hardware and that they can get into the services arena without the infrastructural software needed. HP has a severe management lack of vision problem. My prediction is they'll get lucky with the next CEO and buy Tibco from Vista, paying the price you suggest. That $6 per share premium looks like ending up with Vista Equity instead of Tibco shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Hanging on

    by boz_inc Sep 29, 2014 2:24 PM
    tibco_monkey tibco_monkey Sep 30, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    We don't yet know what VR was offered. He may actually be retaining or even increasing his stake in the business. This may simply be a way of eliminating shareholders, allowing Vivek to deal with a more understanding owner going forward. Vista Equity owns a lot of technology companies and seems to know how to run them exceptionally well. In the last 10 years they've shown an annual 31% return on the companies they own. That leaves Warren Buffet in the dust. Perhaps Vivek has decided he'll do better with Vista than he could do with shareholders. Remember Vivek needs considerable funds going forward to maintain his expanded, and expensive lifestyle. This deal allows him to swap his moaning shareholders for a proven entity that will doubtless return far more. As incredible as it sounds, Vista has never lost money on a takeover and the number of takeovers is huge. Tibco is likely to become far more profitable in Vista's capable hands and Vivek may turn out to be the prime beneficiary.

  • This is the last man standing in my middelware portfolio. Tibco now follows the companies below, a great pity that a strategic buyer could not be found.
    I predict that within 3 years Vista Equity will flip the company, probably to HP, for between $6B and $7B for a nice 50% ROI. If only Vivek could get his head out of basketball for a little while, he might have done this himself and, HP being HP, will want to pay a higher price anyway. Vista is essentially capitalizing on HP's incompetence. They're inserting themselves to take the premium that should be going to the long-suffering Tibco longs but that's vulture capitalists do.

    Ah well, here's the list:
    SeeBeyond
    WebMethods
    CrossWorlds
    Vitria
    Mercator
    Quovadx
    Ascential
    Talarian
    New Era of Networks
    Iona Tech

    I guess it's nearly time to retire the TibcoMonkey moniker now as well. It was great fun climbing all those trees in Vivek's many CC's. After consuming all of the low-hanging fruit it's time to leave to leave the trees.

    Adios.

TIBX
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