SOMETHING VENTURED, SOMETHING GAINED
Venture capitalist like to invest ahead of the crowd by investing in companies before they go public, however, the venture capital market has gotten so crowded and expensive with billions and billions of venture dollars chasing such a small pool of start companies that much of that money is now sitting on the sidelines looking for a home and that home does not have to be a pre-public company. In fact, a public company like Neuralstem Inc. with a market cap of $300 million and billions in future revenue is exactly the type of company venture capital money managers are looking for and as a public company offers the additional benefit of liquidity, which a pre-public company investment does not.
In addition to venture capital managers investing in Neuralstem Inc. based on positive phase II results you have a very affluent, influential and connected group of doctors and surgeons likely to invest in Neuralstem Inc as well, not to mention others in the medical field likely to follow their lead.
The lab results did not lie, phase I results did not lie, April did not lie and Ted did not lie. The lab rats proved the process works. Phase I results proved it was safe for humans and the treatment worked (ALS slowed, stopped progressing or reversed in six out of the 15 patients in Neuralstem’s ALS phase I trial). April Moundzouris’s and Ted Harada’s blogs are anecdotal living proof Nueuralstem’s treatment works. As a result, Neuralstem’s ALS phase II trial data that is scheduled to be released in the next few days will likely be something both medical professionals and venture capitalists will be “jazzed” about and both groups have enormous purchasing power.
The stock price reaction to the release of Phase II data will quite likely be immediate and intense since both savvy investors and venture capitalist like to invest “Ahead Of The Crowd”. …………..Tickerguy
A lot better numbers than I was expecting. Thanks for the info, do not know how you did it but you got the information "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy
Schedule 13D is an SEC filing that must be submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission within 10 days, by anyone who acquires beneficial ownership of more than 5% of any class of publicly traded securities in a public company. A filer must promptly update its Schedule 13D filing to reflect any material change in the facts disclosed, including, among other things, the acquisition or disposition of 1% or more of the class of securities that are the subject of the filing
China Telecom selects Alcatel-Lucent Nuage for Cloud. Now that is really big for the future of Alcatel-Lucent's Nuage growth! Nuage's technology puts China Teleco "Ahead Of The Crowd". ........Tickerguy
Is anyone aware of statistics showing the avarage time it takes the CAFC to issue a decision post oral argument?
"My keen research assistant Patrick Barnacle pulled up records on 56 ex parte patent appeals that have been decided by the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit since March 2005. All of these cases arise from rejections sustained by the USPTO's internal Board of Patent Appeals and Interferences (BPAI). We are working to create a more complete database. In the meantime, I wanted to report some preliminary results on timing." .........
"Once oral arguments (if any) are complete, the Federal Circuit is rather quick at issuing an opinion. The median decision was issued 47 days after the oral arguments. (Again, a skewed average of 86 days is driven by the handful of en banc decisions) 30% of the decisions came within one week of oral arguments - most of those took one to two days."
Source: Patently-O: Patent Law Blog
It would be great to know the decision "Ahead Of The Crowd". ...............Tickerguy
In its third quarter report there were indications of a capex decline by major telcos in North America, however, Alcatel-Lucent saw its Asian revenue increase 23 percent during the same period. It should be noted the 23 % increase in Asian revenue was not and will not be a one time event because ALU's 7950XRS contracts in China with China Mobile, China Unicom and China telecom occurred after the end of ALU's third quarter. Under its 12th five year plan China is expected to spend $365 billion in broadband infrastructure over the next five years which on average is over $60 billion a year from which Alcatel-Lucent stands to benefit significantly.
In addition to Asia, ALU is expanding its presence in Africa with major contracts in Saudi Arabia and South Africa with major carriers such as Vodacom and Etislat.
Looking ahead, the company will benefit from commercial sales of it LightRadio, small cells, massive adoption of VDSL2, expanding core router sales and an ever widening customer base outside traditional telcos. As an IP specialist in networking and ultra-broadband access Alcatel-Lucent is in a position to create new revenue streams from oil and gas companies, banks, television cable companies, internet service providers, utility companies or any industry or company that requires IP networking or ultra-broadband access.
Q3/2014 was the successful tipping point in ALU’s turnaround. Investors are no longer betting on a turnaround but on how successful that turnaround is, from here it gets easier and the profits potentially much larger for those that invested “Ahead Of The Crowd”. ……………Tickerguy
Google " What percent of trades are computer generated". I tried to post a direct link to the info and some of the info itself but Yahoo deleted the post.
As jod say "EPS of 9 pennies for 4Q..." would indeed be sweet, however, the range of estimates are from 2 cents to 10 cents with an average of 6 cents. I am presently estimating 4 to 5 cents/share and have not heard of any whispers "Ahead of The Crowd". ...............Tickerguy
“Great Expectations” Chapter 2 (Don’t worry about Algo)
Under the “Shift Plan” in the third quarter of 2014 ALU cut another $73 million in fixed operating costs and Q4 will report continued reductions in ALU’s fixed costs. Fixed cost reductions sans restructuring expense permanently increase bottom line results. As of the end of October 2014 the shift plan has generated a total savings of $645 million Euro and helped generate a $170 euro operating profit in 3Q/14. Under the shift plan the reduction in ALU’s fixed costs continues with the ultimate goal of a total reduction of nearly $1 billion Euros, thus expect another $75 million Euro reduction in fixed costs in 4Q and a commensurate increase in operating profit.
However, it does little good to cut fixed costs if revenue and margins are declining at an even faster pace. To that end, just as with good cholesterol and bad cholesterol (you want more of the good and less of the bad) Michael Combes has continued to eliminate ALU’s unprofitable service and product contracts and replaced them with profitable new ones. Recently ALU announced the sale of its ten millionth VDSL2 port and 7950XRS router contracts with China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom, so while total revenue is declining due to the termination of old unprofitable contracts, new and profitable contracts are being inked that bode well for the eventual and total replacement of ALU’s older unprofitable revenue streams---all of which should be glaring obvious to the Algos reacting to news rather than making long-term investments "Ahead Of The Crowd". ...............Tickerguy
To Be Continued:
correction: Paragraph 2 should start out reading "At present , 84% of all trades...." not 86%
Alcatel-Lucent’s “Shift Plan” of transforming ALU into an IP specialist in networking and ultra-broadband access is bearing fruit as evidenced by the company’s 3Q/14 numbers. While the improvement in ALU’s gross and operating margins were much appreciated by investors, the real test of whether or not that improvement was real and permanent will be answered in the numbers Alcatel-Lucent reports in its 4Q//14 report on February 6th.
At present, 86% of all trades are algorithmic supported computer trades that are completely automatic. Only 16% of all trades are made by humans---little wonder the average stock holding period in 2014 was only 11 seconds! So what has that got to do with ALU’s 4Q report? While investors do not know how the computer programs are set up, it is fair to say they are set up for key words in the report--- words like: merger, IPO, gross margin34%, operating margin 5%, new contracts, IP revenue, et cetera and within less than a second initiate trades accordingly “Ahead Of The Crowd”. ………….Tickerguy
To Be Continued:
I have heard it said that when the law is on your side, argue the law. When the facts are on your side, argue the facts.
Questions of LAW:
1. Who patented the stem cell technology in question in the U.S.?
2. Did those same people patent the technology in Canada?
3. What company or companies did they sell or authorize the use of the patented technology to in the U.S.?
4. Can a minority holder of a patent grant use of the patent without the consent of the majority holders?
5. Can a company acquire rights to a patent in a foreign country and use it in the United States?
6. What level of contribution is required to entitle a partial contributor to be included in the patent?
7. Does filing for the patent by other contributors negate patent rights of those not listed in the patent?
Questions of FACT:
1. Did Dr. Tetzlaff make a meaningful contribution to the patented technology?
2. Is B Sheridan a liar?
3. Are doctors Weiss and Reynolds greedy individuals?
4. Did doctors Weiss and Reynolds commit fraud when the filed the stem cell patent in question?
5. Did Dr. Tetzlaff grant or sell the use of the technology to Neuralstem Inc.?
6. Why did the individuals required by the judge to be present fail to appear?
7. Do the facts presented in court establish Dr. Tetzlaff's as a joint patent holder to the stem cell patent?
I do believe Neuralstem Inc. has made superior progress with the use of the technology versus that of Stem Cell Inc., has a far stronger balance sheet, better avenues of present and future funding and a superior product pipeline which is closer to commercial launch. However I do not know a definitive answer to any of the questions above----so any feedback from this board would be appreciated. Knowing the answers to the above questions and many more would help in figuring out what the judge's decision will be "Ahead Of The Crowd". ..............Tickerguy
The second ----part of the post should read "buy from you at a discount and sell on the Paris ", " not buy from you at a discount and buy on the Paris exchange".
I call the price differential between the U.S. ADR and the Paris price of ALU shares "The Morgan Rip-off". If Morgan's American book has a balance of buyers they sell to you at a premium and buy on the Paris exchange---if Morgan's American book has a balance of sellers they buy from you at a discount and buy on the Paris exchange----If Americans are neither buyers nor sellers they charge 2 cents per year/share for doing nothing! It is a win, win, win with no risk to Morgan. BTW there transaction cost is only the price of the electrons to computer match the trades between their Paris branch and their U.S. branch.
The bigger the crowd the more Morgan makes money "Ahead Of The Crowd". ..........Tickerguy
1. Does CUR's NSI-566 for ALS merit a FDA BTD designation?
----A. Presently the medical profession does not have a definitive test for ALS...............................(A negative)
----B. The only Riluzole is approved by the FDA for ALS........Extends life by a few months........... (A positive)
----C. FDASIA (Federal Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act) signed into law 2012..... (A positive)
----D. Title IX "Drug Approval & Patent Access", section 902 "BTDs" added section 506(a)..........(A positive)
2. Section 506(a)
----A. The Secretary shall, at the request of the sponsor, expedite the review and approval of the therapy is intended to treat a serious or life-threatening disease or condition
----B. When the preliminary clinical evidence demonstrated substantial patient improvement over existing SOC (Standard Of Care) therapy
----C. A therapy that demonstrates substantial improvement over existing therapies at 1 or more clinical end points will be designated under Section 506(a) as a "Breakthrough Therapy"
3. FDA created A BTD status because:
----A. Increasing development in the field of molecular/cellular targeted therapies for serious illnesses
----B BT therapies offer much greater efficacy than current SOC and can be directed at population subgroups that can benefit
----C. When a large beneficial effect of a BT therapy is observed in early clinical trials for terminal illnesses, it seems excessive to conduct prolonged clinical programs that encompasses traditional phases
4. Benefit of "Breakthrough Therapy Designation" (BTD)
----A. FDA commitment to proactively involve its senior managers and review staff
----B. "Standard" average time from beginning of phase I to approval 87.8 months
----C. "Breakthrough" average time from beginning of Phase I to approval 53.3 months
If a breakthrough therapy is approved on Phase II data, it can reach the market about 3 years faster than a standard new drug "Ahead Of The Crowd". Tickerguy
So you are saying out of a group of 15 patients, 6 patients died and 9 patients lived or 66% were alive after four years from treatment as compared 10% in a an untreated group. How good of a start do you want? I guess with the right patients it could be 100% survived after four years. One thing is 100% sure though-----with your analytical skills you will NEVER make investment decisions "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy
AVERAGE ALS LIFESPAN AND ALS DEATHS PER YEAR
Most people with ALS die from respiratory failure, usually within three to five years from the onset of symptoms. The median survival time from onset to death is around 39 months, and only 4% survive longer than 10 years. Approximately 6,000 people die each year in the United States from Amyotrophic Lateral Scelrosis and yet politics and the FDA fail to put stem cell therapy on fast track status in spite of overwhelming evidence that the therapy works.
LIFE VERSUS DEATH
Certain groups oppose harvesting fetal stem cells from aborted fetuses even though harvesting those stem cells allow that fetus to live on and by opposing that harvesting are saying they want the fetus to completely die and 6,000 people per year along with it.
SOMETHING VERY WRONG
Big pharma, right to life, right to choose, religious organizations, lobbist, lack of political will----whatever it is influencing the FDA there is something very wrong with the FDA stem cell approval process considering one person dies of ALS every 12 hours in the United states as they delay making the treatment available to those that want it. SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG as many people with ALS who want to receive Neuralstem's stem cell surgery (some willing to pay enormous amounts of money)are turned away while a few are fortunate to receive the treatment "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy
Status of NSI-566 FDA BTD Application
It would be interesting to compare the DNA profile of the injected stem cells to that of Ted Harada (who has responded so well) and to the DNA profiles of patients that have not done as well.
Does anyone on this board in regard to a BTD status know if and/or when CUR applied for such?
----Sponsors may request BTD (Breakthrough Therapy Designation) at the time of IND (Investigative New Drug) submission, or any time afterward, as long as they have clinical data that shows " the drug or therapy shows substantial improvement over existing therapies over 1 or more clinical end points".
----FDA expects most BTD requests to be submitted as an amendment to the IND, ideally no later than the end of phase II meeting.
----The FDA does not anticipate BTD being requested after submission of IND (Investigative New Drug) or BLA
----FDA will respond to a BTD request within 60 days of receipt of request
With the above in mind and realizing the scientific method requires a certain pace and other companies are in competition with Neuralstem Inc to commercialize stem cell therapy it is important that Neuralstem Inc. reach 1 or more clinical end points and apply for Breakthrough Therapy Designation "Ahead Of The Crowd". …………Tickerguy
What Ted Harada said about Neuralstem's stem cell injections for the treatment of ALS.......
"It's clear from the data that the injections reversed my symptoms and slowed down the progression of the disease."
For the full story google " Ted Harada: His ALS miracle continues to amaze"
With that kind of trial results NSI-566 merits a FDA BTD!! Ted Harada is alive and well today because he was in the trial and got the treatment "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy