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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

tickerguy_2000 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 7, 2014 3:28 AM Member since: Apr 6, 2000
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  • Reply to

    At Present

    by tickerguy_2000 Jul 4, 2014 10:58 PM
    tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 Jul 7, 2014 3:28 AM Flag

    Please name them

  • tickerguy_2000 by tickerguy_2000 Jul 5, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Stem Cell's phase I/II HuCNS-CS results represented a "best case" scenario----no safety concerns and efficacy of the treatment. One analysts stated that data from Stem Cell, Inc.'s HuCNS-CS phase I/II carries with it a strong indication that Stem Cell, Inc. has a potential "blockbuster product" in its pipeline.

    How big can a blockbuster stem cell product be? It is hard to say but anecdotal information suggests quite large----for example:

    Recently a mid-wife in Texas sold umbilical cord blood to an assistant professor at a major university who then used university facilities to use the cord blood to deliver stem cells to a physician who then went to Mexico to administer stem cell therapy to critically ill patients ---- just a few patients paid $1.5 million for the therapy!! ------And HuCNS-CS has millions of potential patiences!!!

    As a consequence, today's investors are quite likely to find they were quite lucky to have acquired their shares of Stem Cell, Inc. "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy

  • tickerguy_2000 by tickerguy_2000 Jul 4, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    At present only one stem cell therapy is FDA approved---"Hemacord" and at present the most likely candidate to be the second FDA approve stem cell therapy is HuCNS-CS.

    StemCells, Inc. was formed with the charter of discovering tissue-derived stem cells using the monoclonal antibody-based high speed cell sorting technology platform, previously used for purification of hematopoietic stem cells and peripheral nervous system stem cells. More recently, this technology has been used to identify and purify other tissue stem cells, including hair follicle and skin , intestinal, muscle and cancer stem cells. This technology can also be applied to the purification of multi-potent stem cell populations derived from embryonic or induced pluripotent stem cells to eliminate teratogenic precursors. Stem Cell Inc employed this strategy to prospectively purify its human central nervous system stem cell (HuCNS-SC®) population for expansion as neurospheres and banking.

    A seminal finding in advancing regenerative medicine for human neurological disorders was the demonstration that neurogenesis occurs in the human adult brain . This discovery, coupled with the identification and expansion of human neural stem cells by Stem Cell Inc and others, has led to a plethora of studies investigating neuroplasticity and regeneration. Though still early, a growing body of data suggests that human neural stem cells or their progenitors repair or replace cells within the diseased or damaged central nervous system (CNS).

    It would appear that in the race for the second FDA approved stem cell therapy Stem Cell Inc is "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy


  • tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 Jun 4, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    In my view the convertible bond offering is very good for ALU and its shareholders. It is a savvy move by Combes and Raby of which I am very much in favor of because it will help the market price of ALU shares later this year and beyond.

    It is my opinion that the recent drop in the price of ALU's shares has more to do with the announcement that AT&T has temporarily frozen wireline capex, as well as, many holders of the common stock are selling their shares so as to participate in the zero convertible bond offering. If this is the case the shares will stabilize next Tuesday and the share price will improve if the 2Q numbers are good and/or AT&T's resumes wireline capital expenditures.

    I know I would sell my shares of ALU and use the cash to acquire the zero convertible bonds if I could participate in the offering (U.S. ADR holders cannot participate in the bond offering) and I would try to sell my shares "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy

  • Reply to


    by tickerguy_2000 Jun 2, 2014 4:12 PM
    tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 Jun 2, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    If I am right about my interpretation of Alcatel-Lucent's latest bond offering, it is a very good deal for the company and its share holders.

    The company improves its balance sheet by a billion Euro or so, saves about $140 million or so on interest payments each and every year for the next five to six years and the shareholders do not suffer any dilution at current prices all the while motivating management to do everything possible to be sure the share price is above $5.5 Euro or so as not to have to redeem the bonds with cash and get to use the $1billion Euro for six years without ever having to pay out a cent in interest and get a tax deduction for the company each year !

    I wish I could participate in the bond offering, however, again U.S. holders are excluded and the French investors are in line to participate in the offering "Ahead Of the Crowd". ..........Tickerguy

  • tickerguy_2000 by tickerguy_2000 Jun 2, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    If I am understanding it correctly, the following could be the situation---

    A convertible bond is a bond that can be converted into a predetermined amount of a company’s equity at certain times during its life, usually at the discretion of the bond holder. Zero convertible bonds are sold at a discount to the redemption price which is a specified price a certain percentage above the issue price of the bond.

    For Example”

    $1 billion worth of zero convertible bonds issued when the underlying shares of the issuing company are at $4/share would have an offering size of 250 million zero convertible bonds. The pricing of each bond in the issue would be based on the price of one share of the company’s stock at the time of issuance and each bond would have a maturity value of $5.44 per bond in five years (37% increase in value for a time period of 6-10-2014 to 6-10-2019)). In the event that at the time of maturity that the share price of the issuing company is higher than $5.44 the holder simply converts the bonds into shares thus garnering all the value of the price rise in the shares since the issuance of the bonds.

    In the above example the holder of the bond has a 7.5% simple yearly return ($4 to $5.44 in five years). The issuing company pays no interest payments in the interim and gets a tax deduction for the accumulating value of the bonds. The holder not only has a guaranteed price of $5.44 in five years but an additional return if the shares of the issuing company happen to be higher than the guaranteed maturity value of the bond ($5.44) on the maturity date of the bond (6-10-2019).

    It looks like Alcatel-Lucent’s current bond offering is similar to Merrill Lynch’s Liquid Yield Option Notes (LYONS) in the late 80’s that were very helpful to companies wanting to raise cash, get a tax break, pay off debt and improve their balance sheets.

    I wish I could participate in the bond offering "Ahead Of The Crowd". ........Tickerguy

  • I for one am confident that Combes is not lying to investors about revenues from North America for the remainder of the year during the Q2 conference call.

    4. Q: How is ALU able to do better in North America than its peers”

    A: ALU has a broader product portfolio and a broader customer base than its peers in North America. Expect continued slight growth for ALU in North America for the remainder of 2014.

    So I think the revenue stream from North America will be fine for the rest of 2014. I do, however, have concerns about the fixed cost savings amount in Q2 ad the cash restructuring expense as well. While Q1 showed a fixed cost savings of $143 million Euro, because of the following comment:

    "…We started in Q1/13 with a fixed cost of EUR 1.26 billion and ended in Q4/13 at EUR 1.16 billion…..So Q1/14 reflects the resetting of the cost base at a lower level. This effect will get smaller as we move through 2014. So that explains why despite the EUR 143 million (fixed cost savings) in the first quarter, we continue to commit ourselves on the low third in the second year, low third meaning to be precise we have done more or less, roughly 330 or 340 in the first year. So ….the low third is something in between EUR 250 and EUR 300 million.”

    I expect Q2 fixed cost savings of $50 million Euro and cash restructuring expense of $200 million Euro. Those kind of figures will make Q2 and Q3 cash burn figures very ugly but I do not have any doubts about continued revenue strength in North America. I my opinion North America revenue will be just fine, however I believe it is wise as an investor to brace yourself for continuing high cash burn rates for the next few quarters "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy

  • tickerguy_2000 by tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 5:25 AM Flag

    Shows a VDSL2 45/100 modem priced at $187.00

  • tickerguy_2000 by tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 5:03 AM Flag

    According to a recent VDSL2 Vectoring report :

    57 percent of respondents are actively deploying VDSL2 vectoring technology or are in
    trial and plan to deploy by the end of 2014

    The overwhelming driver for deployment of VDSL
    2 Vectoring is to offer faster speeds; with
    most operators planning to offer speeds of 50-75Mbps

    CPE compatibility remained the greatest challenge facing operators as they deploy
    VDSL2 Vectoring

    Operators have low expectations for self-installation of VDSL2 Vectoring, with only 19
    percent expecting 60 percent or more of their customers to self-install

    The #1 challenge addressed by specialized
    software-based management for VDSL2
    Vectoring was qualifying customers for service

    42 percent of respondents are currently evalua
    ting technology, while 52 percent
    are unsure of its impact on
    VDSL2 Vectoring deployments

    Alcatel-Lucent is perceived as the top VDSL
    2 Vectoring DSLAM vendor by respondents,
    followed by Huawei and ADTRAN.

    Service providers gave the highest marks to
    VDSL2 Vectoring vendors Alcatel-Lucent,
    Huawei and ADTRAN for technology innovation, product availability, product roadmap,
    service & support and pricing.

    However, when it comes to VDSL2 Vectoring Alcatel-Lucent is clearly “Ahead Of The Crowd”. ………….Tickerguy

  • Reply to

    ACCESS & VDSL2 VECTORING --part one

    by tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:39 AM
    tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:47 AM Flag


  • Reply to

    ACCESS & VDSL2 VECTORING --part one

    by tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:39 AM
    tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:45 AM Flag

    C. The number of VDSL2 Vector lines shipped in the quarter was 1 million lines to 1.25 million lines which would make the sales price per line $142.68 Euro per line and $114.15 Euro per line. If ALU ships 15,000,000 lines in 2014 and 30,000,000 lines in 2015 the revenue generated for ALU’s ACCESS segment would be $1.72 Billion Euros to $2.14 Billion Euros in 2014 and $3.44 Billion Euros to $4.28 Billion Euros in 2015 all from a product that had zero contribution to ALU’s revenues when M. Combes became CEO of ALU. I cannot help but think such a product has at least a 50% gross margin of profit built into its price.

    Numbers like the above can make an investor believe in and invest in Alcatel-Lucent “Ahead Of The Crowd”. ………..Tickerguy

  • Reply to

    ACCESS & VDSL2 VECTORING --part one

    by tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:39 AM
    tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:43 AM Flag


    A. At the beginning of April 2013 Alcatel-Lucent had sold one million (1,000,000) Vectoring lines, by the beginning of April 2014 cumulative shipments had reached five million (5,000,000), an additional 4,000,000 lines in twelve months. That is a sales rate of 333,333 lines per month. Using a constant sales rate of 333,333 lines per month that means by the end of 2013 ALU had shipped and sold 3,333,000 lines. Increasing that number just a little to 3,677,000 that means ALU accounted for 100% of the cumulative VDSL2 Vectored Lines in 2013.

    B. In Q1/2014 ACCESS SEGMENT revenue increased 2.8% Q/Q to $631 million Euro, a $17,688,000 Euro increase in spite of revenues declining $125 million Euro in its Managed Service division. It is quite possible that the ramp of VDSL2 Vectored lines shipments in Q1/14 accounted for $142,688,000 of ACCESS’s revenue stream.

  • Reply to

    ACCESS & VDSL2 VECTORING --part one

    by tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:39 AM
    tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:41 AM Flag


    -----A. September 2011 ALU launched first commercial VDSL2 Vectoring solution

    -----B. April 2012 initial ALU VDSL2 Vectoring processor shipments

    -----C. April 2013 cumulative ALU VDSL2 Vectoring lines sold reaches 1 million

    -----D. April 2014 cumulative ALU VDSL2 Vectoring lines sold reaches 5 million

    -----E. End of 2013 cumulative VDSL2 Vectored Ports globally total 3,677,000*

    -----F. Estimated 2014 cumulative VDSL2 Vectored Ports globally 15,247,000*

    -----G. Estimated 2015 cumulative VDSL2 Vectored Ports globally 30,432,000*

  • tickerguy_2000 by tickerguy_2000 May 29, 2014 4:39 AM Flag

    ACCESS & VDSL2 VECTORING (5-28-2014)

    1. ACCESS

    -----A. 2G/3G now less than 25% of segment revenue

    -----B. Managed Services down 50% Q/Q phased out unprofitable service contracts

    -----C. Segment cash flow increased $211M Euro versus Q1/13

    -----D. Segment revenue for the quarter $631 million Euro

    -----E. Segment revenue up 2.8% Q/Q

    -----F. ACCESS’s managed services revenue Q/Q was down $125 million Euro

    -----G. VDSL2 Vectoring port sales are booked as ACCESS revenue

  • tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 May 27, 2014 4:59 AM Flag

    The second line should read "In Manama City too"

  • tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 May 27, 2014 4:42 AM Flag

    They're really rockin' in Oman
    In Manama,
    Deep in the heart of Saudi
    And round the Persian Bay
    All over their sand dunes
    And down in New Riyadh
    All the Saudi’s wanna transmit
    With Sweet little LightRadio

    About every city
    Just got to have
    About half a million
    All the IPODs filled with pictures
    Everybody getting’ one
    SPs so excited
    Watchin their networks run,boy.

    'Cause they'll be networks rockin'
    Deep in the heart of Saudi
    And round the Persian Bay
    All over their sand dunes
    Way down in New Riyadh
    All the SP’s wanna transmit
    With sweet Little LightRadio

    Great contract news and you found it “Ahead Of The Crowd”. …………Tickerguy

  • They're really rockin' in Boston
    In Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Deep in the heart of Texas
    And round the 'Frisco Bay
    All over St.Louis
    And down in New Orleans
    All the SP’s wanna dance with
    Sweet little LightRadio

    All the big and little
    SP’s just got to have
    About half a million
    All the IPODs filled with pictures
    Everybody getting’ one
    SPs so excited
    Watchin their networks run,boy.

    'Cause they'll be networks rockin'
    In Philadelphia, Pa.
    Deep in the heart of Texas
    And round the 'Frisco Bay
    All over St.Louis
    Way down in New Orleans
    All the SP’s wanna dance with
    Sweet Little LightRadio

    SP’s got the growin’ pains
    Tight bandwidth and
    Sportin' G3 blues
    Oh but tomorrow mornin
    SP’s will change their tune
    With sweet little LightRadio
    And back up and runnin’ again

    Well the'll be rockin' in Boston
    Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Deep in the heart of Texas
    And round the 'Frisco Bay
    Way out in St.Louis
    Way down in New Orleans
    All the SP’s wanna dance with
    Sweet Little LightRadio

    And with any of those networks with VDSL2 and LightRadio you will be able to play any Chuck Berry song "Ahead Of The Crowd". ..............Tickerguy


    Part seven assumed a 1% improvement in operating margins, and with economies of manufacturing scale for VDSL2 and the 7950XRX, as well as, the full impact of the absence of unprofitable servicing contracts in Q2/14, operating margins could well have improved by 2% or more. In addition cash restructuring expense could be as low as $150 million Euro as terminations will not be in full swing in Q2. If such proves to be the case Alcatel-Lucent could breakeven for the quarter. All factors being considered my range for Q2/14 is breakeven to minus 4cents/share Euro. In my mind the middle range is the most logical (minus 2cents/Euro per share) and I would categorize making a penny per share to breakeven as a sacrifice fly to deep center field.

    Most institutions no longer invest with a ten year time horizon or even a two year time horizon, especially in the telecom sector which has had a dismal performance over the last ten years. The institutional investment time horizon for the telecom sector is more like six to twelve months and big money institutions will not give Alcatel-Lucent credit for a turnaround until they are absolutely certain its “huge cash burn” has evaporated and that will not be clear until Q4/14 or Q1/15.

    For present investor to score it all depends on the numbers and the attitude of the big money managers toward the telecom sector and Alcatel-Lucent in particular. In the meantime patience is the key for those that have invested “Ahead Of The Crowd”. …………Tickerguy

  • ANOTOMY OF A SACRIFICE FLY (IN Q2/14) ----Part Seven

    1. Operating Margin improved in 2013 from Q1 to Q2

    2. Gross Revenue increased from Q1 to Q2 in 2013 by $500M Euro

    3. Gross Revenue for Q1/13 was $3.1 Billion and Q2/13 was $3.6 Billion Euro

    4. Gross Revenue in Q1/14 was $2.9 Billion Euro

    5. Estimated Gross Revenue for Q2/14 is $3.4 Billion Euro


    1. Estimated Gross Revenue for Q2/14------------------ $3.4 Billion

    2. Estimated Gross Margins for Q1/14--------------------32%

    3. Estimated Gross Profit------------------------------------- $1.008 Billion

    4. Estimated SG&A Expense at 12.5% of revenue--------$420 million

    5. Estimated R&D Expense at 14.5% of revenue---------$493 million

    6. Estimated Operating Profit Q2/14-----------------------$95 million

    7. Estimated Restructuring Expense-----------------------$200 million

    8. Estimated Q2/2014 Net loss ------------------------------------------------$105 million

    9. Estimated Net Loss Per Share------------------------------------------------(.04) Euro/share

    To Be Continued:

  • tickerguy_2000 tickerguy_2000 May 21, 2014 1:44 PM Flag


    You are right I did not include a "sacrifice fly" in the lists. I did not include it in the performance list because I believe the sacrifice fly is a combination of gross margin improvement, operating profitability and analysts adjusting the cash burn rate for cash restructuring. If all those things occur in Q2 and are favorable, then ALU will have hit the ball solidly enough in Q2 for a hit to deep center field and investors could score nicely.

    Right now I am just crunching and fudging numbers trying to see if and when a solid enough hit will happen for a sacrifice fly and if I can figure it out ahead of the analysts and "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy

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