I am ABSOLUTELY not a fan of Mr. M since I hold him responsible for the China situation. It happened on his and Mr. Yurek's watch. Under Greg, he was in charge of the China business and how that situation entitled him to become CEO I will never understand. Also, I do not trust CEO's that sell company stock! Moving on..........
To quote your quote from the Form 4,"The sale was made solely for the purpose of tax and estate planning".
Perhaps because Mr. M's accountant looked at all of Mr. M's assets and suggested Mr. M sell AMSC stock to pay his taxes because it was, among his assets, the one least likely to appreciate. In addition, Mr. M and his accountant wanted Mr. M's estate to have some value when he dies and that most likely would not happen if he held AMSC stock.
The last thing a person is going to sell for taxes and estate planning purposes (or any reason) is an asset that is going to massively appreciate!
The Form 4 is correct, "The sale was made solely for the purpose of tax and estate planning". and the best way to accomplish those two things is to sell ahead of Mr. D and "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy
Will ALU achieve $7 billion Euro in CORE revenue (IP routing, IP Transport & IP Platforms) in 2015?
ALU’s contracts for IP CORE routers expanded 40% in the last six months, increasing from 20 to 28. Alcatel-Lucent’s 7950XRS is a game changer and it would not be surprising to see that growth continue for the next eighteen months. As such, ALU accumulated IP Core router contract wins by year end 2014 would be 40 and 77 by year end 2015---- 2.7 times the number at the end of Q2/2014!
ALU’s CORE Q2/2014 revenue was:
1. IP Routing --------$561 million Euro
2. IP Transport ------$484 million Euro
3. IP Platform -------$324 million Euro
EVEN A 50% RISE IN QUARTERLY IP CORE ROUTER REVENUE WOULD INCREASE ALU’S CORE SEGMENT REVENUE BY $1 BILLION EURO WITH TOTAL SEGMENT REVENUE IN EXCESS OF $7 BILLION EURO ANNUALLYIN 2015!
Under the “Shift” plan ALU intends to specialize in IP, Ultra-Broadband, Cloud and Virtualization. ALU’s Q214 report provides some granularity about ALU’s potential future revenue from those areas.
In the last six months:
1. IP NETWORKING
-------------IP core router contracts increased 40%-------(20 contracts to 28 contracts)
-------------1830 customers increased 17%----------------(410+ to 480+ customers)
-------------100G shipments increased 50%---------------(10K to 15K shipments)
2. CLOUD & VIRTUALIZATION
-------------Nuage contracts increased 166%--------------(3 contracts to 8 contracts)
-------------Virtualization trials increased 200%----------(18 trials to 55+ trials)
-------------LTE contracts increased 22%------------------(45 contracts to 55 contracts)
-------------Small Cell customers increased 10%----------(65 customers to 71 customers)
-------------VDSL2 customers increased 30%--------------(17 customers to 22 customers)
-------------FTTH customers increased 7%-----------------(176 customers to 188 customers)
All of which bodes well for ALU’s future revenue growth and margin expansion and provides strong evidence ALU will achieve a $7 billion EURO CORE revenue stream in 2015 and that such a figure may prove to be an understatement.
Disgraceful public behavior! Makes the black community look bad, makes the city look bad and makes America look bad.
Having said that, I have to say "SIX SHOTS" is a lot of shots---To me six shots is indicative of a lot of fear and/or a lot of rage and that makes the police look bad.
That is one city where no one should want to be "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy
Q2/2014 (Part 2)
How likely is that to happen? CORE revenue needs to average $1.75 billion Euro per quarter in 2015 for ALU to achieve $7 billion in CORE revenue in 2015. CORE revenue stream totaled $5.933 billion Euro over the past twelve months. Looking at ALU’s latest CORE twelve month revenue stream quarter by quarter:
1. Q3/13 ... 1,496
2. Q4/13 ... 1,716
3. Q1/14 ... 1,352
4. Q2/14 ... 1,369
To achieve $7 billion in CORE revenue in 2015 the quarterly revenue stream would need to be:
1. Q1/15 … 1.585
2. Q2/15 … 1.615
3. Q3/15 … 1.785
4. Q4/15 … 2.005
How can Combes be so confident about achieving $7 billion in CORE revenue in 2015 with all four CORE segment revenues declining in Q2/14, with U.S. 2014 telco capex expected to be flat to slightly down for the foreseeable future, Europe retreating on fears of energy shortages due to the Ukraine conflict and the Mideast in turmoil?
When asked to explain how under such conditions he could expect over a billion Euro increase in Core revenue in 2015 ….
“…..that would require additional granularity, which would be a bit long to go through...”
However, “…..you can expect from us that we have this type of granularity operator by operator, ….so that is my answer…..”
In other words take his word for it that ALU knows what the demand is operator by operator and therefor his statement of :
….. “To be absolutely 100% clear, I reiterate our EUR 7 billion target for core network revenue in 2015”…..
Clearly the shift plan is on schedule or ahead of schedule, one can only hope that ALU’s view of future demand for its CORE portfolio is correct and that CORE revenue has it own shift plan ….shifting into a much higher revenue stream in the near future.
To be continued:
Alcatel-Lucent a net loss of $298 million Euro, my personal expectation was a net loss of $120 million Euro.
While the Q/Q improvement was $587 million Euro one has to realize that in 2Q/2013 ALU took an impairment charge of $552 million Euro, therefor sans the impairment charge the improvement Q/Q was only $35 million Euro!
In Q1/14 and all reported quarters since Michel Combes became CEO, ALU’s IP segment has been ALU’s strongest area both in terms of growth and profitability while the Access segment was the weakest. However, in Q2/2014 Access grew and IP declined. I am sure many analysts and investors (me included) expected Access to show significant improvement Q2/14 (because of all the contracts signed in 2013 – 2014) and for IP to continue to grow as well. So what happened?
Management’s explanation was IP declined at the expense of Access growth and
…. “ one should not over-read a single quarter performance given the variability we may and have already experienced.”
The thought/theory being that telcos put off IP investment in Q2/14 because of the need to address access investment first and that IP investment will follow in due course because of the continuing data traffic tsunami. While that thought/theory may in the end prove to be correct one has to ask why Juniper and other ALU competitors in the IP space did will in Q2/14 and ALU did not.
On that point Combes stated:
….. “To be absolutely 100% clear, I reiterate our EUR 7 billion target for core network revenue in 2015”…..
In Q2/2014 CORE revenue was:
1. IP Routing revenues fell by 7% to --------$561 million Euro
2. IP Transport revenues fell by 6.2% to---- $484 million Euro
3. IP Platform revenues fell by 19.2% to-----$324 million Euro
TOTAL Q2/2014 CORE REVENUE----------$1.369 million Euro….. ($5.476 billion Euro annually)
To achieve $7 billion in core revenue in 2015 core revenue must increase 29% in the next 18 months! How likely is that to happen?
To be continued:
I apologize to the board about the spelling of ANATOMY as ANOTOMY. I do not know why spell-check did not catch the spelling error on the original posts in May and I just copied and pasted the old posts so the spelling error was repeated. Still I hope the information will help those who think for themselves make their investment decisions about ALU "Ahead Of The Crowd". ..............Tickerguy
It took a while but YAHOO finally allowed all of the parts of "An Anatomy Of A Sacrifice Fly" to be re-posted. I guess I have developed quite a "Hate Following" judging from all the thumbs down numbers on the posts. I am not sure why all the thumbs down since the meat of the posts are stats from the Q1/2014 CC and some fairly conservative estimates using Q1/14 as a baseline.
Why the re-posts? In a few days ALU will present its Q2/2014 numbers and it is a good idea to be familiar with what ALU accomplished in Q1/2014 in order to judge the degree of progress being made and make the right investment decisions about Alcatel-Lucent's progress "Ahead Of The Crowd". ...............Tickerguy
ANOTOMY OF A SACRIFICE FLY (IN Q2/14) ----Part Six (5-21-2014)
At this point the pitch (2Q/13 benchmark) is halfway to the home plate and Alcatel-Lucent’s management has a pretty good idea how good a swing the company will have at beating 2Q/13 numbers when the company reports on or about July 30th, 2014.
Comparing total revenue Q/Q is murky at best. Why? Because 2Q/13 included revenue from ALU’s Enterprise segment and partial revenue from discontinued and unprofitable managed services contracts. In addition ALU’s core segment and access segments in Q1 had diverging revenue streams with core revenue rising and access revenue falling Q/Q.
ALU’s 2Q/13 revenue rose 11.6% sequentially; applying an 11.6% sequential increase in revenue to ALU’s first quarter revenue would imply a 2Q/14 revenue stream of $3.3B Euro. However, ALU’s core segment is growing at a much faster rate and access is improving significantly in spite of its Q/Q revenue decline in 1Q/14 (the ramp rate for VDSL2 shipments is impressive ---going from 1 million to 5 million units in just one year!) As a result, total revenue in 2Q/14 will likely be north of $3.3B Euro.
$3.0B Euro-----Strike Out
After examining the 1Q/14 numbers and adding a lot of fudge factors, the most likely 2Q/14 revenue stream is $3.4B Euro
Operating profit is likely to expand from $33M Euro in Q1/14 to $94M Euro in Q2. A $94 million Euro operating profit assumes a sequential 20% revenue increase; $20 million Euro reduction in fixed costs Q/Q and a 1% operating margin improvement.
Estimated Q2/14 Cash Flow:
1. Adjusted Operating Income---------$94M Euro
2. Change in WCR---------------------- $90M Euro (inventory for NBN in Australia)
3. Segment Operating Cash Flow----- $ 4M Euro
4. Depreciation & Amortization-------- $51M Euro
5. Operating positive Cash Flow---------------------- $55M Euro
6. Less Interest Expense------------------------------------------------ $ 89M Euro
7. Less Taxes------------------------------------------------------------- 40M Euro
8. Less Pension Funding------------------------------------------------- -0- Euro
9. Less R&D-------------------------------------------------------------- 105M Euro
10. Less Restructuring Cash Outlays----------------------------------- 200M Euro (initial layoffs)
Q2/14 TOTAL CASH BURN ----------------------------------------------$378M Euro
The total cash burn goes up sequentially in Q2 versus Q1 because of an assumed $90M Euro increase in cash restructuring cost Q/Q and a continued increase of $90M Euro in Working Capital Requirement because of ALU’s recent China and Australian contract wins. Most will view a $378M Euro cash burn in Q2 as a pop-up hit rather than a sacrifice fly to deep center field.
$478M Euro --------Strike Out
$378M Euro --------Pop Up
$278M Euro --------Single
$179M Euro --------Double
$ 79M Euro --------Triple to a Home Run
ANOTOMY OF A SACRIFICE FLY (IN Q2/14) ----Part Five (5-15-2014)
As Alcatel-Lucent comes to bat in the 4th inning (Q2/2014) of this nine inning (nine quarter shift turnaround plan) ball game, stats from Q1/2014 leave little doubt ALU will again hit the ball. The question is will it be a sacrifice fly to deep center field or an infield pop-up that does not allow a run (long investors to make a score). It all depends on how well ALU keeps its eye on the ball (the shift plan) and what is being thrown at it (Q2/13 numbers and the macro environment).
FACTORS FAVORING AN INFIELD POP-UP
1. Q2/2013 numbers are much stronger than Q1/13 numbers
2. Q/Q progress will be much harder to achieve
3. Cash restructuring cost will increase $90M Euro to $110M Euro versus Q1/2014
4. Fixed cost savings rate is slowing
5. Revenue generated in China has lower gross margins
6. Only ½ of Chinese revenue goes to ALU (ALU only owns 50% of Shanghai Bell)
7. A continued high cash burn in Q2/2014
8. Little or no improvement in the balance sheet
THE SWING---(Factors favoring hitting the ball squarely)
1. Operationally profitable in Q3/2013, Q4/2013 and Q1/2014
2. Sequential improvement in operational profitability Q1/14 to Q2/14
3. Dramatically improved balance sheet from 2013
4. ALU is growing and taking market share from its competitors
5. China's growth is slowing but ALU's Chinese business is expanding
6. New product revenue is now more than offsetting the decline in legacy revenue
7. Accelerating CORE & ACCESS revenue via 7950XRS, VDSL2 and Nuage contracts
8. Improved gross margin quarter over quarter
THE PITCH---(The Q2/13 numbers ALU has to beat to show improvement)
1. Revenue of $3.612 Euro
2. Revenue growth y/y of 3.3% in constant currency
3. Adjusted gross profit of Euro $1.151Billion
4. Gross margin of 31.9%
5. Fixed cost savings of $120M Euro
6. Operating income of $46M Euro
7. Cash burn $248M Euro
8. Sequential revenue growth of 11.6%
9. Sequential gross margin improvement of 2.4%
10. Net loss per share (0.39) per share
11. Net loss $855M Euro
12. Restructuring charge $194M Euro
13. Impairment charge $522M Euro
I am having a little trouble with Tara Neal's math,
"the worldwide sales of telecom and datacom equipment and software expanded another 3 % last year to a total of $183 billion in 2013 with the Asia Pacific outdoing North America in terms of growth. Asia Pacific grew 6% compared to 4.5% growth recorded by the North American market and is expected to keep up similar momentum for the next 3 years."
How does $183 billion in 2013 get to $1.01 trillion in the next three years with a growth rate of 6%?
Is Tara Neal seeing something that will impact the growth rate "Ahead Of The Crowd"? ............Tickerguy
ANOTOMY OF A SACRIFICE FLY (IN Q2/14) ----Part Four (5-14-2014)
SOME QUESTIONS FROM THE ANALYSTS
1. Q: How many of the 15 unprofitable Managed Services contracts have been terminated and what is the likely revenue stream for Managed Services going forward?
A: Fourteen contracts have been terminated and ALU is finalizing the exit from the last contract. After the finalization of the last contract, Managed Services will have a profitable revenue stream of $550M Euro down from an unprofitable revenue stream of $1Billion Euro.
2. Q: What is the next step in improving the patent revenue stream?
A: Jean Raby is building a patent monetizing team to achieve the patent income level stated in the Goldman plan for 2015.
3. Q: So far ALU’s outsourcing is creating additional expenses due to overlap, will ALU really be able to cut internal tasks in so far as overlap in 2014 is temporary.
A: Outsourcing for HR, Finance and IT are already up and running, a few more things in outsourcing in R&D to be announced very soon.
4. Q: How is ALU able to do better in North American than its peers”
A: ALU has a broader product portfolio and a broader customer base than its peers in North America. Expect continued slight growth for ALU in North America for the remainder of 2014.
5. Q: How should we think about the trend in ALU’s gross margin from Q1 to the end of the year?
A: Gross margin in 2013 was 31%, look for a gross margin in 2014 of 32% and in 2015 between 32% and 33%.
6. Q: ALU’s “CORE” revenue target for 2015 is $7billion Euro, what needs to happen to achieve that revenue target from where CORE revenue stands now?
A: There are three parts to CORE and therefore three trends involved: 1. IP Routing revenue trend, 2. IP Transport revenue trend and 3. IP Platforms revenue trend.
IP Routing’s revenue trend is double digit growth.
IP transport’s revenue trend turned around in the second half of 2013 and accelerated in Q1/14 and will continue because submarine revenue will accelerate due to contracts signed in late 2013 and terrestrial will accelerate because of new technology.
7. Q: Is ALU taking market share in North America?
8. Q: Is ALU’s wireless going to invest in 5G or be run for cash?
A: ALU’s wireless focus is on 4G and small cells and reducing legacy technologies. ALU’s wireless efforts will focus on the United States and China and be opportunistic while improving operational efficiency.
To Be Continued:
At the moment YAHOO won't let me post part 4, 5 & 6. I will try later---for those interested you can find the old posts back in May. The repeat posts do have some revisions but not a lot. Good Luck to all those that have invested in ALU "Ahead Of The Crowd". ...............Tickerguy
On the other hand he might have been saying:
FIXED COST SAVINGS 2014 PER QUARTER
1. Q1/14 -----EUR 143 million
2. Q2/14 -----EUR 154 million
3. Q3/14 -----EUR 166 million
4. Q4/14 -----EUR 178 million
Perhaps a little less because of “outsourcing duplication costs”
FIXED COST SAVINGS 2015 PER QUARTER
1. Q1/15 -----EUR 195.6 million
2. Q2/15 -----EUR 213.2 million
3. Q3/15 -----EUR 231.0 million
4. Q4/15 -----EUR 249.0 million
To Be Continued:
ANOTOMY OF A SACRIFICE FLY (IN Q2/14) ----Part Three (5-13-2014)
JEAN RABY PREPARED REMARKS
1. Alcatel-Lucent is now a two segment corporation---Core & Access
2. Operating expenses down 12% Y/Y
3. SG&A expense down 2.8% Q/Q
4. Operating profit of $33M Euro a $212M Euro improvement Q/Q
5. Geographic Revenue
A. North America down 1% Q/Q
B. North America down less than usual from Q4
C. Europe down 2.5% Q/Q
D. Asia/Pacific up 19% Q/Q
E. Middle East & Africa double digit growth (12% y/y)
F. Latin American down Q/Q mostly because of Brazil and Mexico
6. CORE revenue
A. IP Routing revenue flat versus 4Q/13 (better than usual)
B. IP Transport up high single digits (terrestrial optics & submarine strong)
C. IP Platform legacy products less than 25% of revenue stream
D. CORE segment operating profit $96M Euro versus $15M Euro Loss Q1/13
E. CORE cash flow improved due to improved profitability
A. 2G/3G now less than 25% of segment revenue
B. Managed Services down 50% Q/Q phased out unprofitable service contracts
C. Segment cash flow increased $211M Euro versus Q1/13
8. CASH FLOW
A. Negative $398M Euro for the quarter
B. $146M Euro improvement versus Q1/13 negative cash flow of $542M Euro
C. $89M Euro Interest expense
D. $110M cash restructuring costs
E. Expect $700M Euro cash restricting costs for remainder of the year
To Be Continued
ANOTOMY OF A SACRIFICE FLY (IN Q2/14) ----Part Two (5-13-2014)
Using the baseball analogy of a nine inning (9 quarter) game, it is clear that Alcatel-Lucent delivered a single in Q3/13, a double in Q4/13 and a single in Q1/14. Modifying baseball rules a bit by making all hits cumulative, that makes the bases loaded and if ALU can hit a sacrifice fly in Q2/14 that should bring in a run and let investors make a score.
The question is will ALU make another hit up at bat in Q2/14? To answer that question Q1/14 seems to provide valuable information about ALU’s ability to make another hit in Q2/14. So let’s look at ALU’s first quarter stats:
Prepared Remarks by Michel Combes
A. Adjusted Revenue (excludes LGS and Enterprise) grew 4% versus Q1/13
B. Core Revenue ( IP routing, transport & platform) grew in high single digits
C. Core IP Routing revenue had double digit growth (16%)
A. Q1/14 profitability improved $210 million Euro versus Q1/13
B. Q1/14 Gross Margin was 400 basis points higher than Q1/13
C. Fixed Cost Savings in Q1/14 was $143M Euro
3. CASH FLOW
A. Operating Cash Flow improved $200M Euro versus Q1/13
B. Total Group Cash Burn decreased $146M Euro versus Q1/13
C. Total Company Cash Burn was $398M Euro in Q1/14
D. Total Company Cash Burn includes $110M Euro cash restructuring costs, R&D expense, taxes, pension funding etc.
4. CORE SEGMENT
A. IP Routing ( IP routing solutions and Nuage)
----16% growth Q/Q
----12% growth on a rolling twelve month basis
----4 new core router (7950XRS) contracts in Q1/14
----Nuage 2 new commercial wins in Q1/14
B. IP Transport ( Terrestrial & Submarine Optics & Wireless Transmission)
-----High single digit growth Q/Q
-----First Q/Q Terrestrial Optic growth since 2011
-----26 1830WDM Platform contract wins in Q1/14
-----1830 WDM is 44% of Terrestrial Optical revenue
-----1830 WDM revenue increased 8% versus Q1/13
-----100G deployments 30% of WDM line card shipments versus 19% in Q1/13
C. IP Platforms (Software & Services)
-----Legacy revenue declining
-----Solid growth in new technology products (IMS, SDM)
-----3 new cloud contracts in Q1/14
5. ACCESS (Wireless, Fixed, Licensing & Managed Services)
-----Small Cell and LTE single digit growth
ANOTOMY OF A SACRIFICE FLY (IN Q2/14) ----Part One (5-11-2014)
No doubt Q1/2014 was a solid single. However the pesky high cash burn, poor guidance for Q2/2014 and the absence of a Nokia bid for ALU’s wireless and recent dilution sent speculators, fundamentalists and value investors to the sidelines.
Q1/2014 cash burn was $398 million Euro and is an unsustainable number if ALU is to survive and thrive. The guidance on the cash burn for the upcoming quarter and the remainder of the year by Combes was not encouraging.
To quote Combes,
“ The restructuring cash costs are EUR 110 million” (for Q1/2014) “with our discussions with the unions and overall rollout of those plans on track…when we look at restructuring cash cost for the year we still expect approximately EUR $700 million for the remainder of 2014.”
In other words quarterly restructuring cash costs for the remainder of the year will increase from Q1/14’s EUR 110 million to EUR 233 million for Q2, Q3 and Q4.
When asked how to view fixed cost savings over that same period of time,
“ ..in analyzing the EUR 143 million savings achieved in Q1, you should also take into consideration the basis effect resulting from the progressive adjustment of scale of the fixed cost structure throughout 2013.”
“…We started in Q1/13 with a fixed cost of EUR 1.26 billion and ended in Q4/13 at EUR 1.16 billion…..So Q1/14 reflects the resetting of the cost base at a lower level. This effect will get smaller as we move through 2014. So that explains why despite the EUR 143 million (fixed cost savings) in the first quarter, we continue to commit ourselves on the low third in the second year, low third meaning to be precise we have done more or less, roughly 330 or 340 in the first year. So ….the low third is something in between EUR 250 and EUR 300 million.”
Did he just say improvement in fixed costs in Q2, Q3 and Q4 will only be $50 million on a quarter over quarter basis?
On the other hand he might
I forgive larsondaviss and maincoastlover1for not recognizing the difference between the stock symbol ACT and ACTC and/or not reading the complete message.
However Larsondaviss and maincoastlover1 do not worry, a lot of amateur investors make those kind of mistakes and you will get better. Knowing that, I and the crowd of investors that follow STEM forgive you and because I have taken the time to make this post you must surely realize I am forgiving both of you "Ahead Of The Crowd". ..............Tickerguy
In my post of May 21st, 2014 I estimated ALU's Q2/14earnings per share at minus 4 cents----soooo I would be very pleased with -1cent for Q2. A minus one cent for the quarter would indicate that the shift plan is meeting all goals ahead of schedule. A minus one cent for the quarter would be strong evidence that ALU could well earn 30cents per share next year which is more than the low estimate for 2019 as implied by the pricing of ALU's recent convertible bond issue!
Here is hoping that the consensus estimate of minus one cent is right and that the analysts have figured out ALU's Q2 earnings per share accurately "Ahead Of The Crowd". ...........Tickerguy