Your point that if Ben had stayed CEO there wouldn't be any deal because there wouldn't be any Alcatel-Lucent has merit which indirectly is the point of my post which is I am concerned about the shift in strategy that will occur once the merger is complete to that of a fully vertical integrated telecom vendor---a strategy that in the past did not work.
Have things changed since Ben and the strategy of a fully vertical integrated telecom vendor will work as telcos transition to 5G, the internet of all things and machine to machine communication? If the merger is consummated hopefully there has been a change in the telecom landscape that will allow Nokia to thrive with such a strategy because Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia management recognized those changes "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy
P.S. The numbers in my original post were for 2018
Just the back of the envelope thinking----However:
Ben Verwaayen's strategy was to have a fully vertically integrated telecom vendor to be all things to all customers. That strategy did not work out well and Ben was fired. Ben's strategy was replaced by the "Shift" plan that would make ALU a specialty provider in broadband, routing, SDN/NVF, IP and optical. Now we as shareholders are told that ALU is merging with Nokia to become a fully vertical integrated telcom vendor that will be all things to all customers? WHAT???
Also, about that purchase price:
Nokia is paying long suffering long-term ALU shareholders approximately $15 billion Euro in Nokia stock. So what does NOK get for the $15 billion?
1. $900 million cost reduction/per year
2. $1 billion earnings/per year
3. $1 billion in tax savings per year
Round out the numbers to $3 billion/year and that is a 20% ROI per year on their $15 billion investment, that is a great deal for NOK (in an enviorment where the cost of money is 3% to 4%) and a lousy deal for ALU shareholders.
If the shares of NOK continues to decline then ALU shareholders will get no premium over the price of ALU shares prior to the merger announcement and NOK gets a 20% ROI on the acquisition!!!
Wish I could have seen this coming "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy
Evidently GE is making a significant corporate structural change. The value of that change impacted the price per share on 4/10/15 improving the share price 10% and validated over and over again by the more than 1/3 of a billion shares of GE that traded Friday on the NYSE.
However what did not change is the amount of political @#%^ on this message board! In order to find a meaningful message about GE I flagged as "ignore" any political posted, unfortunately it appears that YAHOO has a limit on the number of posters one can "ignore",as a result this message board continues to be polluted with political rhetoric with no hope for any meaningful dialogue about GE .
Why are so many people so impolite? I guess they are just to lazy or incompetent to do the hard work to analyze a very complex company and post political nonsense instead.
Is there another message board I can go to where the posters discuss GE?
I saw the same program and thought exactly the same thing as you!
However, Duke's results were from a phase I trial and I suspect the "Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) will occur after the completion of a phase II trial---say about a year or so from now. Should Neuralstem's Phase IIB select "responder" only patents and results are similar to the results of the "responders" in CUR's latest ALS trial then CUR would quite likely get a BTD status from the FDA shortly after the competion of the trail and tabulation of the data.
That being said, there is little doubt Duke and CUR have pioneered a treatment that will likely help a great many people and each is in a position to bring that treatment to market "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy
DOING PHASE II OVER? NO PHASE III ANNOUNCEMENT???
My impression of Garr's presentation is that CUR will start a 50 patient controlled phase II ALS trial starting in 2015. Slide 5 of his presentation says the same thing. That being the case the big disappointment today is "NO PHASE III" announcement and investors are now faced with a 4 to 5 year time horizon to FDA approval (2 years for phase 2--including the 9 month follow-up for final data, 1 1/2 years for phase three plus 6 months for FDA review and approval)!
In the meantime, probable quarterly losses and additional dilution, not to mention an imminent legal decision that may not go Neuralstem's way. Little wonder big money sold today and stepped to the sidelines even if they did not do it "Ahead Of The Crowd". ...............Tickerguy
In March of 2014 the Euro was 1.39. Today the Euro is 1.05, that makes all things in France 25% cheaper versus the U.S. dollar and that includes Alcatel-Lucent's products (at least those manufactured in France and sold throughout the world. It would seem that the decline of the Euro makes Alcatel-Lucent a bit more competitive. As another poster mentioned, the Euro will not decline forever and when it starts to rise investors will have the double impact of Alcatel-Lucent's improved competitive position and exchange gains. Savvy investors are anticipating the above scenario and acquiring shares of ALU now, "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy
Actually the Barclays Global Healthcare Conference of 2014 was March 12th through the 14th of 2014. The 14th was on a Friday and the PR release of the Phase I results was the following Monday on the 17th of March 2014. If history repeats itself then CUR will have a PR concerning Phase II results on Monday March 16th, 2015. Knowing History can help an investor make investment decisions "Ahead Of The Crowd". ............Tickerguy
Barclays Healthcare Conference in 2014 was March 12-15, 2014 yet the announcement for Neuralstem's phase I ALs trial results were announce in a PR on March 17th. Certainly the results of phase I were known to Garr on March 12th, 2014 but were not released at the 2014 Barclay Healthcare Conference but five days later on March 17th. It is reasonable to expect the same timing this year. I expect a PR on Phase II results on March 17th, same as last year. It will be Saint Patrick's, get your lucky four leaf clover out for a Garr--ate PR and buy your shares "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy
March 17, 2014
09:17 EDT CUR Neuralstem announces final results of neuralstem Phase 1 stem cell trial
Neuralstem announced that the final results from the Phase I safety trial using NSI-566 spinal cord stem cells in the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were published in the peer-reviewed journal, "Annals of Neurology". The results showed that NSI-566 human spinal cord stem cells can be safely transplanted in both the lumbar and cervical spinal cord segments, did not accelerate disease progression, and warrant further study on dosing and therapeutic efficacy. Furthermore, the researchers were able to identify potential therapeutic windows, suggesting that more injections, as well as multiple injections, are better and may increase both the length and the magnitude of the potential benefits.
SOMETHING VENTURED, SOMETHING GAINED
Venture capitalist like to invest ahead of the crowd by investing in companies before they go public, however, the venture capital market has gotten so crowded and expensive with billions and billions of venture dollars chasing such a small pool of start companies that much of that money is now sitting on the sidelines looking for a home and that home does not have to be a pre-public company. In fact, a public company like Neuralstem Inc. with a market cap of $300 million and billions in future revenue is exactly the type of company venture capital money managers are looking for and as a public company offers the additional benefit of liquidity, which a pre-public company investment does not.
In addition to venture capital managers investing in Neuralstem Inc. based on positive phase II results you have a very affluent, influential and connected group of doctors and surgeons likely to invest in Neuralstem Inc as well, not to mention others in the medical field likely to follow their lead.
The lab results did not lie, phase I results did not lie, April did not lie and Ted did not lie. The lab rats proved the process works. Phase I results proved it was safe for humans and the treatment worked (ALS slowed, stopped progressing or reversed in six out of the 15 patients in Neuralstem’s ALS phase I trial). April Moundzouris’s and Ted Harada’s blogs are anecdotal living proof Nueuralstem’s treatment works. As a result, Neuralstem’s ALS phase II trial data that is scheduled to be released in the next few days will likely be something both medical professionals and venture capitalists will be “jazzed” about and both groups have enormous purchasing power.
The stock price reaction to the release of Phase II data will quite likely be immediate and intense since both savvy investors and venture capitalist like to invest “Ahead Of The Crowd”. …………..Tickerguy
A lot better numbers than I was expecting. Thanks for the info, do not know how you did it but you got the information "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy
Schedule 13D is an SEC filing that must be submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission within 10 days, by anyone who acquires beneficial ownership of more than 5% of any class of publicly traded securities in a public company. A filer must promptly update its Schedule 13D filing to reflect any material change in the facts disclosed, including, among other things, the acquisition or disposition of 1% or more of the class of securities that are the subject of the filing