The Belmont Stakes is a little less than two weeks away on June 11. Nyquist, the winner of the Kentucky Derby will not run in it. I was hoping he would so he would take a big chunk of the betting money but they did what was best for the horse. In the Preakness he showed that he was a very tired horse. In the stretch run at the Preakness he was drifting out and that is the tell tale sign of a horse that is extremely tired and the Belmont is 3/16 of a mile longer than the Preakness. I saw no way he could win the Belmont. The favorite is and will be Exaggerator as long as he doesn't come up with an injury and not run. Exaggerator is probably a somewhat tired horse too with the Belmont being his third race in five weeks. I am going to put my money on BRODY'S CAUSE. He is a longshot at 14-1 right now s a horse that is better than most people believe he is. He is a late runner and will be running at the end and I think may be able to overtake Exaggerator in the stretch. He is by no means a shoe in but I like the risk reward on this one if I can get that 14-1 or better on him. Brody's cause ran in the Derby but sat out the Preakness so he'll be a fresh horse with five weeks rest. There's a number of other horses that have a shot also but I think Brody's Cause is the most talented of the rest and has as good a shot as anyone, including Exaggerator win the race. Stradivari, the horse I bet in the Preakess is also running and although he had a pretty good showing in the Preakness he was a bit more green than I expected and I think will need a few more races before he contends in a race like this, although he has a ton of talent. Nyquist does appear to be the best three year old this year but he's just a very tired horse. Look for him to win his next race later on in the summer though after he gets a good rest. So my money's going on Brody's Cause and you can join me and if not wish me luck.
Finished fourth. That doesn't pay me anything. Oh well, we gave it a shot and got decent odds. He got a bad break with another horse coming out on him early on but doubt he would have won if that hadn't happened. He made a run at the leaders in the stretch but the track and the wide trip just wore him down. Keep an eye on this horse in the future. For all his inexperience he ran a good race and only look for him to improve with more experience. We'll get em next year. Maybe.
Okay, back to sanity. Stradivari is now bouncing between 7-1 and 8-1. I have no idea what happened before but I checked four different places and Stardivari was anywhere from 1-1 to 9-5. I don't know if it was a technical glitch or what but I did read that one person made a super large bet on Stradivari that crashed his odds like that. Could be but I don't know if that is really a fact. Oh well, I feel better about my odds now.
A new development in the Preakness. This is hard to even believe. Suddenly a ton of money has been coming in on Stradivari and he's now the favorite at 3-2 and Nyquist the second favorite at 8-5. Now I don't know what to do. Stradivari is so inexperience and his morning line was 8-1 and Nyquist's morning line was 3-5. I was willing to chance him because the odds made it worth a gamble. The only think I can figure is the trainer and some of his staff and the owner now know they have what is called in the business (a freak horse), that can do what no horse like him should be able to do and are dropping tons of money on him. There really is no other explanation. I don't know if I should cancel my bets or just ride the big money and hope he is somewhat of a lock in the race. This is a development that I never expected. I guess I'll just wait until we get close to the race and decide what I want to do. If the odds do say there I will say for sure that I will cancel my show bet and put that money on the nose.
As the money comes in on the race, Stradivari is now down to 7-1. Its beginning to look like we won't get that 10-1 but I think he will end up drifting up to 8-1. Nyquist is now 4-5 and Exaggerator is 9-5 and that's a bit more support than he should be getting but as I suspected, some bettors are looking at that good race in the mud I was talking about and attracting more money. Go Stradivari.
Preakness Day is here boys and girls. The good news is they're not expecting thunderstorms but the bad news is the long range forecast for rain is coming true. They are getting light rain right now and rain is expected throughout the day and heavy at times. The rain is expected to let up by the time the Preakness goes off but the damage will have already been done. I went back and checked out the races of the horses entered and Exaggerator ran very well in the mud in one of his races and ran away with the race but the competition was not what he will be facing today. That will probably bring a lot more money in on Exxagerator but I still don't like him to win any of the triple crown races although I'm not saying he can't win. Nyquist will still be the favorite and rightfully so but I took my shot with Stradivari. I like his potential and the odds I'll be getting. Right now its looking like around 10-1 odds on him. I like the risk reward ratio on him, although we still don't know a lot about him because he is so lightly raced and hasn't even been in a stakes race with better horses. There's nothing in the race that you could call a sure thing. Makes it interesting and presents one with the opportunity to pick up a good horse at good odds. I've already placed my bets so now I just sit back and wait for the race which isn't for about another 9 hours. I bet Stradivari across the board, in the exacta, in the trifecta and in the superfecta. Come on Stardivari. I didn't bet a lot but with nice odds and if we can collect on some of those exotic wagers we can make a lot of money if he wins. Be there or be square.
Now we have more clarity but more confusion at the same time. Gun Runner will not run in the Preakness because he didn't come out of the Kentucky Derby very well as I expected. That's a shame, the Preakness was his best shot of the three triple crown races. So that helps clarify things. On the other hand they are now saying that there's a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore on Saturday and that brings in confusion. Talk about throwing a wrench into things. There are 11 runners and some have run in the mud and some have not. I'll have to go back and check what horses have run on off tracks but I'll wait and see if the forecast holds up. I do know Nyquist ran on a slightly off track in the Florida Derby and handled it well. I know Stradivari has never run on an off track but his daddy is Madaglia d'Oro and he was a great mudder. So will that talent to run in the slop and not caring that you're getting a face full of mud carry over to Stradivari? We'll just have to wait and see if the rain forecast holds. The post positions were drawn this afternoon and Nyquist drew post position 3 and Exaggerator drew post position 5, while Straivari drew the outside post position at 11. There's not a terrible post position with the smaller field in the Preakness but I would have rather seen Stradivari get that 3 or 5 position. On the other hand, starting on the outside will help keep him out of trouble. I still believe I'm going to go with Stradivari and bet him across the board and in the exotic bets. The horse has tons of talent not to mention speed and endurance but we'll find out just how good he is on Saturday when he steps way up in class and he is well rested, so that's no excuse. Good luck to those betting on the race no matter who you pick.
Now you have a double on DWSN. Again I will apologize for my timing because I'm usually better than that with my timing but once again, I don't feel too bad for you after giving you a double, even if it took 7 or 8 months. If you want to cash in, congratulations but if you want to hold tight you will probably end up with a triple. That call is yours. You must admit, a double in a period of months beats the snot out of taking a beating on WMT day after day, week after week and year after year.
I hear Pops Buffett has his eye on buying the company that makes the DynaTac cell phone. He was really impressed when he was watching the movie Wall Street the other night and saw Gordon Gekko using one. He said to himself, maybe I am really good at spotting the next hot tech trend.
The reason some women support this guy is because there are some women out there that are dumb as dirt. Not saying this as a knock on women because there are just as many dumb men. Too stupid to even think what they are doing to themselves. Little wonder how we ended up with a dumb drunken puppet dunce like Bush.
The guy is so lost he doesn't know which way to turn. One the bright side he is still selling the dying retailer WMT but on the sad side he is buying AAPL which has passed its peak, is turning into just another run of the mill device company and going to fall hard from where it had been and is. He also bought more oil stocks in a world where the demand for oil will drop 90% in the next 15-20 years and the world moves to renewables in a huge way. Pops really needs to understand that The Holiday Shores Retirement Village is screaming at him from the top of their lungs but he seems to be losing his hearing along with his mind. Maybe I could get some really slick color brochure's to send him. I'd just send him a great presentation on his computer but for some reason I don't think he'd ever be able to find the sent info. Pops is so 20th century that it has to be embarrassing to the people who work at Berkshire who have to try and defend him and make excuses for what he is doing.
Speaking of horse racing, my thoughts and hopes go out to Karl Broberg. Broberg is a trainer who led the nation in wins last year and is leading again this year. He runs at the smaller tracks so he isn't leading in purse money won, just wins. Karl Broberg's wife fell from a cruise ship Saturday about 2am and the coast guard has been searching for her ever since. They said the ships video showed someone falling overboard and after doing a roll call, Broberg's wife was the only person missing. They didn't give any details like if it appeared to be just a freak accident or if she appeared drunk or was doing it to commit suicide. Karl Broberg was not on the cruise as his wife went on the cruise with a group. I wish him the best of luck but lets face it, the chances of finding her alive are slim to none at this point. They have three children.
Another thing I wanted to mention is that Nyquist, Exaggerator and Gun Runner are coming back only two weeks after a tough race in the Kentucky Derby and Stadivari is well rested with his last race going to be just over a month ago and as I mentioned it was such an easy race for him winning by such a wide margin and never being asked to run. He ran at his own pace and it was a race that didn't take a lot out of him. Also, with Todd Pletcher running Stradivari in this race, even though he is so inexperienced, you know he has great confidence in him. There is another stakes race being run the same day as the Preakness at the same track that he could have run Stradivari in and another stakes race at another track that he could have run him in but passed on them to run in the Preakness. Don't forget that the trainer and jockey of a horse receive 10% each of the winners purse so Pletcher could have could have run him in one of those two other races and almost be guaranteed a winner and pocket 35-40 thousand dollars himself but chose to pass on those races and chose instead to run the Preakness with much better competition.
By the way if you're wondering what a second and a half difference means in horse racing, a fifth of a second is about one length so that means if all things were equal, he would have beat the winner of the Blue Grass stakes by 7-1/2 lengths. With Stradivari running in the Preakness it sure makes things more interesting but harder to figure at the same time. Right now I'm leaning toward taking a shot at Stradivari by betting him across the board. I was hoping he would go off in the 12-15 to 1 shot range but some early betting in Vegas has Stradivari at 7-1 after opening at 30-1 just a short time earlier. I think he will go up a little from there because Nyquist will get a ton of money and Exaggerator will get a lot of money and I hope they enter Gun Runner because he will get a lot of money bet on him. So, that 7-1 may be realistic but a little higher if they decide to run Gun Runner. Stradivari also has one of the top jockey's in the country, John Velazquez, riding him. You have to love horse racing. There are so many things that enter into a race that have to be considered. In a few days we'll know who is running and who's not. There are some other than ran in the Kentucky Derby in the race and a few that didn't but I don't consider any of them legitimate threats.
His name is Stradivari and what a talented horse. He was a late born three year old and has only run three races. His first race was a maiden special weight against some good horses and he lost. His second race was another maiden special weight race against good horses and he cruised to a 10 length victory is a very good time. His third race was an allowance race against some really nice horses and he blew them away in a 1-1/8 mile race by 14 lengths and never asked the horse to run and won it in a great time without being pushed. In fact he ran the race on April 17th at Keenland which was the Sunday before the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes which was also at 1-1/8 mile at Keeneland and is one of the major prep races just before the Kentucky Derby. Stradivari ran his race 1-1/2 seconds quicker than the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes and both were run on fast tracks. Tracks do change from day to day as far as how fast the track was but I went back and looked at all the races run on both those days and the track seemed to be close on both days as to how fast the track was running. I had said I wouldn't bet on Nyquist simply because his odds would be too low to take a chance and was leaning toward Gun Runner because he finished a fading third in the Kentucky Derby but this shorter race and what I think will be a slower pace set up better for him than the Derby. I'm really worried about Gun Runner though because they still haven't committed him to run in the Preakness and all I can figure is he didn't come out of the Derby well and is not gaining as much weight as he should have and thus won't be in top form. So we still don't know if he will even run in the Preakness. It is a giant step up in class for Stradivari to go from an allowance race to a grade I stakes race and he has so little experience but his trainer is Todd Pletcher who is one of the top trainers in the country and I don't think there is any way he would run him is he didn't think he had a decent shot.
I told you in early fall to buy DWSN in the low 3's and told you that you'd make 50% by the end of the year. Things took longer to develop and still haven't developed nearly as quick as I thought they would but it is now up 70% from when I told you that. So I apologize for being wrong but 70% in a matter of months is not too bad so I don't feel too bad. I traded it a lot and made a fortune on it but I thought it best for you to just hold instead of trading, which you republican sheep could never be good at. That being said, I think since things have not all developed yet, that it has a lot of room to go further up but you make the choice. I will never fault anyone for taking a 70% gain in just months. It has to seem like winning the lottery compared to if you hold things like WMT.
Sometimes in life we say things that make us look very foolish and then the only thing left to do is hide.
That's very possible that they may get early approval. This is exactly the kind of thing that they give 'Orphan Drug Status' to since there is no other treatment for spinal injuries.
where people are going to pass him up. Jeff Bezos net worth is now 61 billion and closing in like a speeding freight train on Pops Buffett and expected to pass him very soon. It won't take him long to pass Bill Gates either. Poor Pops. Pops is now throwing it into reverse and somebody needs to inform him that its very dangerous to drive in reverse on the highway, so he needs to pull off at the next exit which just happens to be the exit for The Holiday Shores Retirement Village. I don't think Pops can drink enough Coke, charge enough to his American Express Card, burn enough gas in his Caddy or buy enough repair parts for his ancient IBM computer to keep his holdings going and he would never buy any junk from WMT so we know he can't save them.
The jockey of Exaggerator said he would have won the race except he got pinched in at one point. Still doubt that he would have won because when he saw he had the race won the jockey let up on Nyquist as a good jockey will do to save some horse for the next race. I wouldn't bet on Exaggerator in the Preakness though. The pace in the Derby was very quick and that helps the late runners and I doubt the early pace with be that quick in the Preakness which means the front runners will have more left in the tank in the stretch run. For the Preakness I would tend to pick Nyquist or Gun Runner. The Preakness is a 1/16 mile shorter than the Derby and that should help Gun Runner. My jockey Florent Geroux rode a great race and did all he could with Gun Runner but as I feared he just tired at the end in the longer race. With a bit more maturing, a tad slower pace and the shorter race he might take the Preakness. So much depends though on how these horses came out of the Derby. I know for sure I'm not going to bet Nyquist in the Preakness. Not because I don't think he can win but because the odds will be too low to chance it. You had to bet him in the Derby to get any kind of price on him. I figure Nyquist to be about 3-5 in the Preakness and I won't bet a horse with that low of odds because after all its a horse race and anything can happen and the risk/reward gets too tilted to the risk. So if I bet it will be Gun Runner or nothing. I might bet Gun Runner like I did Nyquist and bet him across the board.