Suggest you review the financial policies that were a major cause of the financial crisis. Banks were pressured into giving mortgages to everyone...even if they could not afford a loan. Guess who was behind those policies....Does Barney Frank ring a bell?
I viewed RAD slide presentation.....I was impressed that they have the confidence to increase CAPEX, Big jump in new stores, remodeling etc. I think they have the right policies to take market share. all imho Good luck
If you want to see a dope,,,,look in the mirror....Then open a book ...to teach yourself manners....You just made the dopey ignore list.
Did you read my post that does an approximation of the impact of $60 upon the SA economy. I did the calculation to put the impact in prospective. If even 15% of the US revenues were turned off for even a short period of time....that would cause severe pain on the U.S. economy. But when you realize that oil IS the SA economy...that's another matter.
I think there has been an overreaction to the Saudi's announcement...that could quickly reverse. When the trend reverses, I think the stock will move up quickly.
That's what buying opportunities are all about. I am not worried about SD going bankrupt as some shorts want you to believe because of their hedges in 2015 and 2016 and no debt due in the near future. So I like owning the shares at this low price...like having an option without paying a premium and no expiration date. All imho Good luck
With the unbelievable price drop in recent days, any short that has not yet covered should seek the nearest couch available....all imho Good luck
AcXcording to a recent article, oil exports account for 85% of the Saudi's government revenue, and the IMF estimates that the Kingdom needs an average price of at least $83.60 a barrel to balance the national budget.
If you do an approximate calculation : Percentage of revenues lost = 1-60/83 = 1 - .75 = .25 or 25%
This is equivalent for the US shutting down 25% of its economy because 85% of revenue in SA is from oil.
All imho Good luck to longs
imho I do not think oil will drop another $30 per barrel. SD has most of its oil hedged at high figures for all of 2015. They also have a portion hedged in 2016. I believe its probable that one of several things will happen by spring of 2015.
1. The Saudi's will cut back because they are loosing too much
2. An international incident will occur effecting oil production.
3 The Saudi's will succumb to international pressure.
4. The US will pressure the Saudi government by holding back
weapons systems and/or parts for maintenance.
5. With lower prices, demand for oil will increase. So if SA produces the same amount, there will be less supply due to increased demand.
All imho. Good luck
The new congress will block or defund any agency that threatens the new shale industry in the U.S. imho Good luck
Addendum. Since a very large portion of shares are held by a relatively few number of hedge funds....they will be certain that the buyout to take SD private will be approved. all imho
That's exactly why they may take the company private. The hedge funds own a large portion of the stock ...and the price is soo low...they can buy it on the cheap. Then issue an IPO when conditions change....they make a fortune..and the little guys...make some bucks...not a fortune. all imho...good luck longs
I think the Saudi's need the US more than the US needs them now. Hopefully the new congress and the new president will work for US interests and includes ensuring that they encourage US oil production. There are a lot of bargaining chips that the US has for negotiation...and the #1 chip is US technology and power. You can't pump that out of the ground. All imho.
Mathew Simmons's Twilight in the desert sights study by the Society of Petroleum Engineers that concluded that Saudi Arabia's oil production faces near term decline and that it will not be able to consistently produce more than 2004 levels. Simmons states that they may have irretrievably damaged their large oil fields by over -pumping salt water into the fields to maintain pressure. Leaked diplomatic cables in 2011 warned the US that oil reserves in SA might in fact be 40% lower than claimed. From an article Oil Reserves in Saudi Arabia.
All imho. Good luck longs
Its not in the Saudi's interest to flood the market with oil.....They will loose billions of dollars as other's have pointed out. If the Saudi's continue an economic war on U.S. production and it is sustained over a long period of time, the new congress will act. The new congress is not against domestic production, in fact they favor it.
They will act to protect the industry if necessary. Besides the U.S. there are many other global players who don't like what the Saudi's are doing...which will also influence what happens. Already, many companies are starting to cut their drilling budgets....But the world will not let the Saudi's run the show...and they will share if they want spare parts for their fighters or upgrades to the electronic equipment keeping them safe....All imho. Good luck longs
I read it on the financial feeds.....it was either on Fidelity or on yahoo financial. I am not making this up...unfortunately I did not take notes on the source...because this was a few days ago and I was not quite ready to buy. However, my view as stated that very low prices in oil will not last for long...something will happen to drive the price back up to a range of 80-90 a barrel. I think this is the average price for shale producers. I bought today because of this view...As I said the "options" do not expire....so I can afford to wait. All imho. Good luck
Because the vast majority of shares are owned by a few hedge funds...and the price is extremely low, I think there is a good possibility that the hedge funds will get together and take SD private. Just a realistic appraisel of the situation. all ;imho of course. Good luck longs
I read that cost of producing a barrel of oil for the Saudi's is very high...north of $80. imho I do not believe the Saudi's will keep the price of oil very low...for very long. The cost for them will be too great...both in terms of dollars and in terms of pressure from other oil producing countries. That's why I picked up some shares at some bargain prices....like buying an option with no time limitation. Good luck longs.
SD usually has a mind of its own. Might just be that shorts are very worried about the strong move up. As we go higher, more shorts will be covering before they get a call from MR. Margin. Good luck.
OR shorts are just starting to cover and there are not very many sellers or the 3rd qtr was outstanding and there are lots of buyers. Good luck longs