Good job. I have also been able to buy some 175k under $0.34 since the share sale. I have about 265k now.
WHILE SPDC did not respond publicly, PFSW did. Here it is: PFSweb said its board had reviewed the proposal and felt confident in its current strategy which included "use of prudent acquisitions to augment our organic growth initiatives." NOTE: USE OF PRUDENT ACQUISITIONS. ALSO NOTE that SPDC had a market cap of $215 million, while PFSW had $190 million market cap. Today, assuming all warrants are exercised and assuming SPDC trades at $0.56, the market cap is less that $50 million. Does it make sense to you why PFSW will be the BIGGEST LOSER here if it does not do everything to gran SPDC down here. TAKE NOTE that nothing has changed regarding the synergies Engine Capital outlined earlier. IN FACT, something changed. SPDC is now bigger with Fifth Gear acquisition. However, it is cheaper by some $150 million.
Even if PFSE pays $120 million to SPDC shareholder, it is still getting the company for about $100 million cheaper but with larger scale with 5th Gear. In an article on Seeking Alpha on January 2, 2015, a writer who was long PFSW wrote about the Engine Capital proposal: “If, as I expect, PFSweb continues to perform well, there will be future opportunities to combine with Speed Commerce, and that combination could very well come at a time when PFSweb would be in a better position to have terms that would be more favorable to the PFSweb shareholders.”
IS THERE A BETTER TIME FOR PFSW TO BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO HAVE BETTER TERMS IN A MERGER WITH SPDC? There you have your buyer…PFSW!
PART ONE. PLEASE READ PART TWO FOR THE GIST:
1. On Dec 29 when SPDC market capital was $215 million and PFSW was $190 million, Arnaud Ajdler of Engine Capital submits letter making a case for PFSW and SPDC merger, arguing that : (1) A strategic combination would create unequivocal number-two player behind eBay Enterprise, with significant scale, additional revenue opportunities, significant cost savings opportunities, and potential multiple rerating. (2) Identifying $12 million in cost savings, because both company headquarters are located a few miles apart creating an opportunity to reduce duplicative real estate and back-office costs, duplicative IT costs as well as call center expenses. Further, the number of warehouses could be optimized with the associated labor and equipment savings. A combined entity would also be able to reduce the significant freight expenses associated with the business model. (3) The cost saving opportunities of $12 million that we have identified would therefore create an additional $120 million of value using the same 10x forward multiple. (4) Additional synergies such as increased market share, cross-selling opportunities, and increased valuation multiple.
Engine Capital suggest that suggest that each Company's board of directors form a special committee to analyze the benefits of this transaction. (WHICH IS WHAT SPDC JUST DID). According to Engine, "it appears that Mike Willoughby's strength lies in operations while Richard Willis' strength lies in Mergers and Acquisitions ("M&A"). We would therefore envision the combined company to be led by Mike Willoughby as CEO with a particular focus on day-to-day operations and by Richard Willis as Chairman with a particular focus on M&A."
PLEASE GO TO PART TWO TO SEE THESIS AND CONCLUSION on why it is PFSW.
Pardon me, I do my homework and stick to it. Was holding my breath for it to hit $0.30. Still hoping for that number to make one final dash here
Oh, sure 73k, but that number has gone up. I bought 16000 more at $0.36 and lower. So, I now hold 123000 shares.
ENTERPRISE-VALUE-TO-SALES EV/SALES basically uses Market Cap plus Debt plus Preferred - Cash and Cash Equivalent. We then divide the derivative by Annual Sales. Multiples are then added to the annual sales.
So here we go:
1. 88 million shares multiplied by $0.56 (that's the only reasonable figure to use = $49,280000
2. Total debt $102 million
3. Preferred shares $10 million
4. Cash at least $13 million after giving effect to the conversions
5. Sales: Whether you use Fiscal 2015 or 2016, you'd get at $175 million. (Fiscal 2015 SPDC is $125, plus $50 for 5th Gear = $175 million. They used that guidance also for fiscal 2016)
THEREFORE: 49.2 plus 102 plus 10 = $161280,000 minus $13,000000 minimum cash = $148,280000.
So, 148280000/175000000 Sales = $0.85. And this price is at just 1X multiple. If we use 1.5X sales, shareholder get closer to $1.30, and so on depending on the multiple.
CAUTION: I own 107,000 shares, 730000 of which was bought under $0.50.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Previous share count: 66 million
After Offering of 13 million = 79 million
9.8 million warrants exercised at $0.56 =88.8 million
7.3 million Series C Notes to be exercised at $1.50 = 96 million
Fiscal 2016 Revenue (Note that company that number is preliminary and conservative: $175 million
So, assume a sale at $180 million / 96 million shares derives about $1.87 per shares. So, plus or minus, I achieved a range of $1.50 to $2.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Folks like you that jump in when the market is trading on pure fear and manipulation usually make it on to the top.. I wonder where you started buying but I figure you'd be very profitable with this trade. Ditto for too-much if he is still holding. TAKE NOTE that the only reason SPDC crashed hard on Feb 09 was the perception that Zisk's resignation on Feb 04 was going to release more bad stuff in addition to the dismal quarterly performance. Moreover, there was the belief that Zisk would dump the shares. But the filing yesterday has not only put that the rest, it actually shows:
1. Zisk is not selling
2. There was apparently no disagreement with the present management
3. The value of Zisk's shares are mostly $1.47 and $1.69
4. Zisks would not be selling those shares for less than $1.47
5. Zisk is considering buying shares in the open market to "enhance shareholder value"
6. Zisk considering other options, including taking over control or helping management to get a merger or similar arrangement.
NOW YOU CAN SEE THAT YOU ARE SITTING ON AN ALASKAN GOLDMINE
I omitted the most important bullet:
* $5.1 Million of the $7.1 Million Net Loss was actually Fifth Gear acquisition $2.1 million, costs related to the $99 million was $3 million. Refer to the CC. So, the net loss barring acquisition of Fifth Gear would have been $2 -$3 million (when you factor the $1 million partial revenue that came in from Fifth Gear).
I am merely reporting the facts and not adding my comments.
*FIVE NEW CUSTOMERS JUST STARTED ON APRIL 1st
*FIFTH GEAR WILL POST A "RECORD REVENUE FOR QTR" not my my word but CEO's
* FIFTH GEAR TO POST EBITDA OF BETWEEN 6-10 p
* LOSS OF FOUR CUSTOMERS ALMOST COMPLETELY COVERED BY THE FIVE NEW CUSTOMERS
*MORE ADDITIONAL CUSTOMERS SIGNING UP IN MAY (CEO's comment)
*2016 FISCAL YEAR GUIDANCE CONSERVATIVE AND VERY PRELIMINARY
*SEASONALITY QUARTERED BY THE ADDITION OF FIFTH GEAR WHICH HAS ALL-ROUND CUSTOMERS
* 100 POSITIONS TO BE ELIMINATED AFTER FIFTH GEAR PURCHASE (SAVING ON EXPENSE)
* COMPANY ON TRACT TO POST "RECORD REVENUE FOR FISCAL 2016" CEO's statement
****SELLER....DID YOU READ WHAT I READ or IS THIS JUST A GAME???
Either way, thank you. I now have 43,000, 23000 of which I bot today shares of SPDC.
Had to ignore being a part of this party. I have to thank too-much for letting me in here. I saw the stock on his IHUB thread and have been monitoring it for a while.
Take note that whatever numbers reported as value by the company is based on the proved 12.9 MMBoe. The company correctly states:
"Over and above the 12.9 MMBoe of proved reserves, the Company has identified an additional unrisked 54 MMboe of probable, possible and exploratory reserves. These projects are defined with recent fully processed 3-D seismic data and within our acreage positions. The majority of this upside potential is within our Garden Island Bay field."
The above is why I am holding 413000 shares DUNRQ.
We will find out soon...auction is by next month I believe. I believe there will be a bidding frenzy here.
I did two round trips on those price moves. Bot 4000 at $5.24 on Friday and sold yesterday at $5.69. Bought 3000 again today at $5.24/$5.22 and sold at $5.51. Doubt whether I can recreate that tomorrow with that IoT piece from Zack, but will try. Just trading it for now but watching to load for a major run if it crosses $5.89 on volume.
Holding 26600 shares
I need to be clear regarding putting $630K on SPDC. I will vouch that no individual investor that posts regularly on Yahoo Board would put such money on SPDC. Institutions, obviously can do it, they have the cash. But no right individual investor (not even SPDC CEO) would do that. NEVER EVER. There are so many other names to spread it over
catjomy31, I like your parochialism (hope you understand what that means). If you read some posts here going back like a month, you may discover that too much may actually have been making money making fools like you to take him on his word and push the stock down. He basically say-trades the stock. Who on his right mind would put $630k on SPDC. And what would make a guy that has $630k to invest to be playing around a name like SPDC???? I am surprised folks like you take him seriously.
Just patience. If you read the prospectus, especially the part relating to 5th Gear, you'd find out that SPDC will make you money. You just have to be patient with the selling shareholders. It won't run until they're completely done. I believe they should be close. Just an honest opinion. I bot some in the $1 range and have added occasionally if I have spare change.
Many folks do not know there are sell-side analysts and buy-side analysts and that there are other analysts covering the stock. But if folks don't know where this is headed after the last CC, then they better watch from the sidelines, although this volume stongly suggests that investors are back to FXCM - especially institutions and large funds
It will change to BPZQ. It got BPZR when it was delisted. Now that it is bk, I guess it will get the Q. No need to theorize on best or worst case scenarios here. The shaeholders are not seling their shares and we shall see how it plays out. There appears to be a lot of equity value IMO. I don't own the stock yet, tried to get some just before 4pm but it failed to fill. I will try again tommorrow.