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Copano Energy LLC Message Board

timodoz 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 13, 2016 3:53 PM Member since: Dec 21, 2007
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  • Reply to

    buyout

    by rdl3105 Feb 11, 2016 4:09 PM
    timodoz timodoz Feb 13, 2016 3:53 PM Flag

    The offer is clearly made to be so generous so as to have these issues held to a minimum. Utilities have been on a long bull run against the Financial repression getting ever worse. The trading level before the offer, was already strong against a better than avg dividend situation once it was resumed after the tornado and the offer is very generous. You never know maybe there will be a counter offer higher from DUKE or EXELON. I have long held the stock believing it was a strong take out candidate. It might be a good time to add to my Algonquin shares whilst this dilution manifests. The Loonie has come off a near .68 botom since Nov and closed the week at .722. The Chinese are selling US assets and US dollar reserves to buy a more diversified basket of other developed nation currencies for their reserve foreign currency holdings. . This is driving the US dollar down and foreign currencies up. The .DXY down to a 95 handle from a 100. China is going to get rid of the US dollar peg and adopt negative rates as well. This will not reverse the flood of global capital flooding into the US in search of escape from Negative interest rates but increase and exacerbate it, futher driving down US yields which are now only biased by the US Fed. The Fed has lost control of US rates vs what was always expected ..that they would go higher instead of even lower than the Fed would like to mandate. That means the Canadian currency should continue to gain incrementally which translates into incrementally larger Candian ute dividends and share prices as the Loonie rises. Then the eventual accretiveness of this deal. Capital of what they still have left in the emergings suffering from rampant inflation and US $ denominated bond defaults is also flowing in to the US debt markets. The lower the US rates go the higher goes the Loonie.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shouldn't Valley really be closer to 5$?

    by sandikofax Jan 25, 2016 11:27 AM
    timodoz timodoz Feb 3, 2016 7:05 AM Flag

    The Dividend has already been cut and the latest earnings were positive beating the Street. Those included one time charge offs of paying down higher interest rate longer term debt thay had carried from previous years which was used to finance loans. A lot of those loans were paid off early or refinanced and so the interest rate's gross revenues that they anticipated were not accrued. Clearly the Bank is getting itself leaner and MEANER. The Florida acquisition is the third or fourth since the late aught years melt down when the FDIC awarded them the assets of Park Avenue Bank which the FDIC moved on and closed. The latest FL acquisition adds to the customer base of SNOW birds. Valley like most banks is/has moved away from lending to concentrating more on the fee Business models. The same issues of old Higher yield debt that plagued the Hudson City takeover deal are being reduced and removed. VLY is becoming like Hudson City was a decent takeover target itself for a Wall Street major. With the one time costs just reported in the last quarter and still having some positive earnings vs the Street expecting something in neg territory the Bank should continue with enough cash flows and earnings to service the already reduced dividend payout. It is also the tax season and of year end bonus awards. Some insiders are disposing of shares near or larger than their incentivization share awards. That is there are tax strategies being undertaken by management both for paying taxes and also to keep their ownership positions in near the same balance of their networth diversified asset bases. VLY is NOT in "danger" of raising it's dividend any time soon but that div can slip back to 4% if the shares rise in response to it being sustainable VS the .TNX now fallen to BELOW 1.9%. It would get a near $15 bid if it were targeted but $12 is not an unreasonable 18 month target price.