Look for January 9th to be an interesting day as AAL management is scheduled to provide updated guidance. It will be interesting to see how they spin the outlook---hard to see it being less than positive. Management has stated that they look to be shareholder-friendly with their good fortune.
Why is the stock up & GOING HIGHER ??? RDUS's drug demonstrated a reduction in fracture rates vs placebo---- with SUPERIOR GAINS in bone mineral density relative to LLY's Forteo. RDUS's abaloparatide reduced non-vertebral & clinically meaningful fractures in a SATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT FASHION. It does not appear that LLY's Forteo was able to hit these endpoints.
So in a side-by-side comparison it appears that RDUS was able to achieve important fracture endpoints that LLY was not able to achieve with Forteo. This is a $500MM+ drug ---- LLY should BUY RDUS if they want to extend the life of Forteo which goes off patent in 2018.
Time for shorts.....to cover ??? having problems breathing ???
Cowen's top rated biotech analyst Eric Schmidt says RDUS should go to the low $60s after the positive Phase III data in severe osteoporosis along with other positive secondary endpoints. The shorts may be about to run out of OXYGEN ! should be fun !!!
Jet fuel is currently @ $1.70/gal on the spot market & compares to $1.87/gal last week. This is down 42% year over year. Investment firms like Morgan Stanley are carrying $2.50/gal in their baseline financial models for forward periods so continue to see incremental bumps in earnings estimates going forward. For those looking at airlines as the #$%$ investments of prior cycles be aware that managements are not rushing anytime soon to lower airline prices to attract market share (as idiots like Bob Crandall of AMR & other clowns used to do). Rather there is a consistent message that current managements are more shareholder friendly & passing along record profits to shareholders in the form of debt paydown, dividend increases & stock buybacks.
hardly---Merrill will be next telling the markets that energy prices have dropped. the players in airline stocks are way too sophisticated for chump analyst comments like stifle trying to move up closer to "consensus"---which is still too low & why the AAL stock will print $60 or better in 2015
By chance did you happen to notice that AAL has DOUBLED in 2014 & handily CRUSHED the market overall ? Are you going to be OK ? 15 years "investing" in airlines ?????? are you crazy ? NO ONE has been successfully "investing" in airlines in that period. How many bankruptcies have you had ?
DAL made important comments yesterday that are important for the group & can shine specifically on AAL. DAL made disciplined comments that they are flowing fuel savings to shareholders and NOT lowering prices for consumers. This will continue to break down the OLD thinking that airlines will shoot themselves in the foot making bonehead decisions like they did in the past. Look for AAL CEO Parker to echo similar remarks----pay down debt, modernize fleet, stock buybacks et al. Still a good bit of room for AAL & the group to run.
The airline industry lost $ 16 of past 25 years because of poor management (Bob Crandall the AMR CEO poster boy !) poor discipline which resulted in an unfriendly investment environment. Nowdays Parker & others have learned from this history & the sector is on its way to investor friendly----with dividends, rational pricing, financial metrics in place. This leads to a greater institutional presence and likely increasing earnings multiples (comparable to other transports) ---- first time in 25-30 years that I've followed the sector.
Are you comparing THLD to BLUE ??? you should get familiar with BLUE as its the real deal (along with RARE & KITE).
The current jet fuel spot market price is $2/gal & heading lower. This compares to the prior week's $2.18 spot price. Look for wall street estimates to climb across the board over the next month. Stock should conservatively see $60/share without too much concern over the next 6 months.
what specifically are you alluding to ? or just trying to throw out a bone because some of senior management are there ?
$80.50 is JPM analyst '15 yearend target for AAL. He's been following the sector for a long time & has a very strong institutional following (ranked #1 Institutional Investor airline analyst in the recent voting). Unless AAL management drops the ball big-time on integration or the economy drifts into recession the stock has a nice risk/reward looking out over the next year. Relax & enjoy the ride---lots of upside remains especially as Wall Street has yet to increase their earnings estimates for '15 & '16. AAL has over $1 Billion in integration cost savings on the horizon along with lower jet fuel costs----now approaching $2/gal !