JPM today raised their target price to $80+ over the next year, carrying untaxed EPS for '15 topping $10/share & also raising '16 estimates from $9.05 to $11.22. Airline stocks appear cheaper TODAY than at summer's end. Look for consensus estimates ( '15- $7.41 & '16-$ 7.49) to move up significantly.
It should sell at a discount to DAL for now---as AAL still has potential risk coming out of bankruptcy, consolidation issues. DAL has been shareholder friendly over the past couple of years --which has won them friends & a higher valuation. Also, many institutions do not have AAL on their approved list for purchase as its post-bankrupt & takes time. Look for AAL to pick up new vanilla buyers as AAL eventually gets into S&P500 & gets index buying (DAL already there). As the AAL story continues to mature (now buybacks, dividends---following DAL's example) the stock will rise any way. A strong sector lifts all boats (planes !) so BOTH will participate on the upside. Don't fool around looking at P/Es as they are skewed to taxes----cash flow & PRASMs are better indicators. Analyst estimates are all over the map depending on their bias but there's a lot of room UP for AAL & slightly less for DAL --- but both will work nicely over the next year.
wow...you must be smart ! do you sit in a little room with a bunch of donkeys posting all day & swinging trades for 10c ??? you be da playa
Jet fuel is currently @ $1.70/gal on the spot market & compares to $1.87/gal last week. This is down 42% year over year. Investment firms like Morgan Stanley are carrying $2.50/gal in their baseline financial models for forward periods so continue to see incremental bumps in earnings estimates going forward. For those looking at airlines as the #$%$ investments of prior cycles be aware that managements are not rushing anytime soon to lower airline prices to attract market share (as idiots like Bob Crandall of AMR & other clowns used to do). Rather there is a consistent message that current managements are more shareholder friendly & passing along record profits to shareholders in the form of debt paydown, dividend increases & stock buybacks.
Stifel (Buy--$12 target) & Cantor (Buy-$14 target) out positive on the outlook today for THLD
Parker is also showing Wall Street that he is cognizant of employees and is doing all that he can to integrate the airlines -- one of the primary concerns of the merger. By providing some love to the FAs & hopefully wrapping up the pilots deal shortly he can have a nice happy discussion on January 9th when AAL gives guidance & an update.
The current jet fuel spot market price is $2/gal & heading lower. This compares to the prior week's $2.18 spot price. Look for wall street estimates to climb across the board over the next month. Stock should conservatively see $60/share without too much concern over the next 6 months.
you must be new to the financial markets. maybe go to the library & get a book on it or take a class---you might learn something.
what do you know ? you expect companies in biotech to hit on every indication ? must be new to the game. if this was such a big deal why is the stock down 1% ? riddle me that answer mr. smarty
More importantly -- what has the ceo & his management team brought to the table for shareholders over the last DOZEN+ YEARS ???? does anyone have that answer ? does everybody get a free ride for that long in every job ??? DOZEN+ YEARS ???
Nice call on Dendreon little rookie ! as usual you think you have all the answers---guess you didn't see BANKRUPTCY for DNDN did you.
DAL made important comments yesterday that are important for the group & can shine specifically on AAL. DAL made disciplined comments that they are flowing fuel savings to shareholders and NOT lowering prices for consumers. This will continue to break down the OLD thinking that airlines will shoot themselves in the foot making bonehead decisions like they did in the past. Look for AAL CEO Parker to echo similar remarks----pay down debt, modernize fleet, stock buybacks et al. Still a good bit of room for AAL & the group to run.
THLD is held by retail hands so its no surprise that they have trouble looking out another year+ for a shot at meaningful appreciation. There is no institutional interest in THLD & they would rather pay up if & when THLD is able to bring meaningful results to the table. Besides there are too many other companies in biotech meeting & exceeding expectations to give spec names much real interest.
$80.50 is JPM analyst '15 yearend target for AAL. He's been following the sector for a long time & has a very strong institutional following (ranked #1 Institutional Investor airline analyst in the recent voting). Unless AAL management drops the ball big-time on integration or the economy drifts into recession the stock has a nice risk/reward looking out over the next year. Relax & enjoy the ride---lots of upside remains especially as Wall Street has yet to increase their earnings estimates for '15 & '16. AAL has over $1 Billion in integration cost savings on the horizon along with lower jet fuel costs----now approaching $2/gal !
I am not short. "institutions" hold stock primarily as part of index funds (Russell 2000) & it's not much money anyway. I can't see any active biotech managers of any note that has made any substantial commitment to the management or the stock. I will say that there are hedge funds who employ long/short strategies in this sector who go long names like REGN & ALXN and short a basket of spec names with no products that are short names like THLD.
As far at their 10Q its all boilerplate---standard commentary. No surprise there. The only surprise has been timelines that continue to be pushed out. What valuation do you give to potential sales in 2020 ???
AAL will keep their dividend in line with DAL & will more likely repurchase shares (as opposed to big dividend increases) to provide shareholder support. Most investors are not invested in AAL or the sector for income.