Agree with you that we are still a year or two away from any sustained price increases. Regardless of hype, Market continues to tell us the gorilla is both oversupply and uncertainty. Further mining cutbacks and deferrals are necessary.
Sendai reactor restarts will most likely be no more than a feel good moment. Enough opposition within local communities may very well be sufficient to delay other restarts through court challenges. Based on suggested current inventories, the stockpile could last 10+ years, and for sure, the longer reactors remain off line the greater the probability some of the inventory will be released back into the market. Russia is self contained while also being a significant exporter. Their under feeding, as well as by others, exasperates the oversupply even more. China continues to buy while already sitting on huge stockpiles. However, rather than massive purchasing through the general market, much of the acquisition comes from domestic mines or those which they have direct investment. Since DOE abandoned the 10% domestic transfer guidance and currently has no ceiling on excess material they release from federal stockpiles, they could if so choose, supply 2015s global uncommitted utility requirements. The Germans are phasing out and the US has phased 5 since 2012. Delays from several months to years are affecting many start-ups. Higher value of the dollar hurts. Utility held inventories remain high, and, with near term requirements being met, there appears no concern of sustained higher prices anytime soon making spot purchasing attractive and minimizing term contracting. Yes, trade the swings while we wait out the spread.
....think he got a little ahead of himself. Communications from both URZ and UUUU have clearly stated in addition to normal regulatory and stock exchange approvals, shareholders of both companies must also approve, and meetings will be held during the 2nd quarter. Proxy statements should cover final details.
....could this have influenced the futures sell off today? Comments to the DOE inquiry are made available and provide a good overview of the impact the DOE has had and can still. CCJ and URZ offered interesting overviews from the mining perspective.