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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

tjmcbntmkr 504 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2015 9:17 AM Member since: Jan 21, 2002
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  • tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Apr 18, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    What dividend? Link please

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Check My Numbers

    by oilly2bed Nov 18, 2013 11:33 AM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Nov 20, 2013 10:02 AM Flag

    Beeler #3 Sept production was under 9000 on the TRRC report-- so how do you get to a USEG net shown?

    What is an exit production number?? The Q3 10-Q states production flat at 1109?

    Trying to learn something here this morning.

  • tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Nov 16, 2013 7:36 AM Flag

    and this additional 650 barrels per day would come from????

    USEG has a 22% working interest in the Buda acreage so that would mean those 3-4 wells producing 3000 barrels per day or 90,000 barrels per month or 25,000 barrels per well per month. That's way way above any TRRC reports I've seen given the decline curves of Buda formation wells.

    Could you show us a bit of your math here-- what am I missing. They have struggled to keep the Bakken well production flat this year which accounts for 800 BOE/day.

  • Reply to

    Increasing daily production

    by tjmcbntmkr Nov 14, 2013 10:48 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Nov 15, 2013 12:09 PM Flag

    I am guessing-- a similar methodology to everybody else here. Started drilling Beeler#2 in April and have 3 well completed to date with a 4th drilling now. this development pace is certainly picking up and may well accelerate to under 60 days. Just trying to see how many wells would be operating over a given time period. I like margin's approach in another thread to estimating total number of wells and EUR per well at 22% W/I less $4-5M per well development costs yielding over $100M net to USEG over the next say 2 years. With the rather large assumption that well #20 have a similar production profile to #1. Many moving parts.

  • Reply to

    Dollar value of Buda claim to US Energy

    by jrb2000 Nov 15, 2013 10:24 AM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Nov 15, 2013 11:45 AM Flag

    so this cash flow of $100-$200M would take place over the next 2-3 years assuming that new well are completed about every other month. That rate of development is just a guess given the current pace this year which will likely accelerate with the positive results obtained to date.

    Under this scenario the pps would double at a minimum just recognizing that these Buda wells have a very limited production window. I recall they produce 90% of EUR in 1-2 years. Just trying to get some impact of the best scenario to USEG total production but certainly these are very large production numbers even given their 22% interest.

  • challenging to hold Bakken production steady which is over 800 out of 1100 BOE/D.

    Meanwhile, Buda production modeling is not provided by mgmt.-- these are early days. It appears they are completing a new well every 60 days max and average daily production over the first year, before the predicted large decline sets in, is in the range of say 500. So 500 x 6 first year wells operating x .22 (USEG interest) less about 1/3 of annual production for development cost (from the conf call "payout is 4 months" comment) = net increase in BOE/D of 440.

    At least on this back of the napkin estimate it is a substantial amount of oil but doesn't move the needle that much. So where is this estimate wrong??

  • tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Aug 27, 2013 5:17 PM Flag

    was most interested by the hundreds of references or prior art cited and reviewed by the examiner before granting this latest continuation patent. these references include all the prior art claimed by Apple, et. al. in the trials in East Texas and the re examinations at the US Patent Office.

  • Reply to

    absolutely--nothing

    by natureboy0630 Aug 21, 2013 6:12 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Aug 21, 2013 6:18 PM Flag

    in other words the apple attorney has nothing other than the claim that facetime is run on very expensive relay servers as of april with related service degredation -- the judge will disregard any other claim that they "are looking at" other non-infringing alternatives. it's a bluff the judge will disregard.

  • Reply to

    Why the AH drop on MAIN

    by lawstuff22 Aug 12, 2013 4:32 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Aug 13, 2013 8:16 AM Flag

    that was only $16m

  • tjmcbntmkr by tjmcbntmkr Aug 1, 2013 9:51 PM Flag

    and most interesting that the Bluegrass Pipeline project is being added to guidance in coming quarters-- really a mammoth project with excellent capabilities transporting Marcellus and Utica resources south

    On the off chance anyone ever does read this completely useless highjacked board anymore. Pretty unlikely given the apparent #$%$ match going on here which is completely weird.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Rex has reported favorable results on this EOR project for a small pilot in the Lawrence field with oil cuts increasing from 1% to 12% and very substantial increases in sustained production. A larger or expanded project was initiated last year with additional injection wells and results have been expected on initial production in June, 2013 . Looking for any further guidance on the topic.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tjmcbntmkr by tjmcbntmkr Jul 1, 2013 7:48 PM Flag

    Q1 @ $0.19 and Q2 @ $0.61
    last q conference call mgmt. est. DCF 2013 at $2.15 to $2.45
    so Q3 and Q4 distributions range from $0.68 to $0.82

    note that all the wet weather in mid west will increase sales of higher margin UAN produced by the recent plant expansion

    will add to my position close to $22

  • Reply to

    For what it is worth...

    by inowhoyour Jun 7, 2013 3:46 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Jun 9, 2013 3:53 PM Flag

    actually that was Buffalo Springfield-- Steven Still's first band. Before your time??

  • Reply to

    CEO Mullins purchased 6300 shares $15.63 May 6

    by tjmcbntmkr May 7, 2013 9:09 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr May 7, 2013 9:17 PM Flag

    so apparently he thinks the many problems identified on every major project will be addressed later this year.
    IMO Q3 or Q4 earliest we see any progress. These were the same problems they were talking about 6 months ago.

    I am assuming these brief comments will get a couple views in between the drivel on this high jacked board.
    Don't really care cause I sold several months ago. May revisit this summer.

  • see form 4 filed today

  • Reply to

    earnings date

    by kajacobson55 May 6, 2013 4:48 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr May 7, 2013 8:11 PM Flag

    per the USEG website IR 1Q 2014 Results on May 13 @ 10 AM MT

  • Reply to

    Dividend cut imminent

    by kokojie Apr 24, 2013 12:19 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Apr 24, 2013 1:53 PM Flag

    thats possible but unlikely given their established committment to sustaining the dividend in a couple infrequent quarters over the last several years where earnings dropped below the dividend level only to recover that ground in the following quarter. much of the "miss" can be attributed to the mark to market loss this quarter on trading investments vs. a profit last quarter of similair amount-- i.e. a wash over 6 months. Ire- established a small position last week below 10 and may look to add modestly when it settles in the next few days.
    Always open to contrarian comments. Might want to wait for the dividend announcement but that won't be till mid June.

  • tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Apr 11, 2013 4:38 PM Flag

    $25764
    buys under $3
    sell over $3
    a highly complex tading algo

  • to reiterate the point made by prior poster, an engineering firm reports on the value of remaining proven reserves was published in the full year 10-Q. this value is required by SEC to be based on natuarl gas prices obtained in the last 12 months (lowest prices in decades and now substantially higher) and are identifyed in the report as $79.1 Million as standardized DISCOUNTED value of the revenues from the poroduction of these proven reserves thru 2030. the discount rate applied ot this revenue stream is 10%.

    applying nat gas prices that are more realistic or even in line with current pricing and modest price increase and a lesser more realistic discount rate of 6% will yeild a standardized discounted value well above $100M

    The market cap of the ECT Marcellus Trust I at the close of todays oversold condition is just over $52M.

    I am a buyer at these levels. If it goes down more I may sell my golf clubs or the wifes jewelry and buy some more.

  • Reply to

    The funny thing is:

    by sourdough27a Mar 19, 2013 7:37 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Mar 19, 2013 8:18 PM Flag

    it is correct our interest is in these specific, completed wells-- not a mineral interest in the field. The residual value of the wells is still a function of how much gas is economically available in March, 2030. My understanding is that ECA is not oblidged, and therefore won't be investing any more dollars in additional completion technology.

    My family has owned mineral interests in downstate Illinois basin oil wells for 80 years. My grandmother was assured that the 1960's water flood was the last hurrah. Still geting those royalty checks nearly 50 years later.

    Point being, how will this residual value be determined? On the last months production or an engineering evaluation of economic reserves still accesable through these wells with completion and recovery technology available 17 years from now.

    Secondly, ECA has a 50% interest in the development wells and 10% in the first group of producing wells. Are they likely to leave large quantities of accesible gas in the ground for 17 years if they think that further recovery work will benefit their interest? If ECA does elect to employ enhance recovery methods to increase production from these wells how does that cost get spread to the trust?

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