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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

tjmcbntmkr 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2013 10:02 AM Member since: Jan 21, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Check My Numbers

    by oilly2bed Nov 18, 2013 11:33 AM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Nov 20, 2013 10:02 AM Flag

    Beeler #3 Sept production was under 9000 on the TRRC report-- so how do you get to a USEG net shown?

    What is an exit production number?? The Q3 10-Q states production flat at 1109?

    Trying to learn something here this morning.

  • tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Nov 16, 2013 7:36 AM Flag

    and this additional 650 barrels per day would come from????

    USEG has a 22% working interest in the Buda acreage so that would mean those 3-4 wells producing 3000 barrels per day or 90,000 barrels per month or 25,000 barrels per well per month. That's way way above any TRRC reports I've seen given the decline curves of Buda formation wells.

    Could you show us a bit of your math here-- what am I missing. They have struggled to keep the Bakken well production flat this year which accounts for 800 BOE/day.

  • Reply to

    Increasing daily production

    by tjmcbntmkr Nov 14, 2013 10:48 PM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Nov 15, 2013 12:09 PM Flag

    I am guessing-- a similar methodology to everybody else here. Started drilling Beeler#2 in April and have 3 well completed to date with a 4th drilling now. this development pace is certainly picking up and may well accelerate to under 60 days. Just trying to see how many wells would be operating over a given time period. I like margin's approach in another thread to estimating total number of wells and EUR per well at 22% W/I less $4-5M per well development costs yielding over $100M net to USEG over the next say 2 years. With the rather large assumption that well #20 have a similar production profile to #1. Many moving parts.

  • Reply to

    Dollar value of Buda claim to US Energy

    by jrb2000 Nov 15, 2013 10:24 AM
    tjmcbntmkr tjmcbntmkr Nov 15, 2013 11:45 AM Flag

    so this cash flow of $100-$200M would take place over the next 2-3 years assuming that new well are completed about every other month. That rate of development is just a guess given the current pace this year which will likely accelerate with the positive results obtained to date.

    Under this scenario the pps would double at a minimum just recognizing that these Buda wells have a very limited production window. I recall they produce 90% of EUR in 1-2 years. Just trying to get some impact of the best scenario to USEG total production but certainly these are very large production numbers even given their 22% interest.

  • challenging to hold Bakken production steady which is over 800 out of 1100 BOE/D.

    Meanwhile, Buda production modeling is not provided by mgmt.-- these are early days. It appears they are completing a new well every 60 days max and average daily production over the first year, before the predicted large decline sets in, is in the range of say 500. So 500 x 6 first year wells operating x .22 (USEG interest) less about 1/3 of annual production for development cost (from the conf call "payout is 4 months" comment) = net increase in BOE/D of 440.

    At least on this back of the napkin estimate it is a substantial amount of oil but doesn't move the needle that much. So where is this estimate wrong??

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