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Incyte Corporation Message Board

tjnelis 2843 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Jan 9, 2007
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  • Reply to

    4th q estimates

    by tjnelis 14 hours ago

    I think that I had taken the difference of what was full year guidance for contract revenue and what they had earned by the end of the 3rd q, it is one that i did not check on compared to my other numbers, it was just from memory. With that said, it would be hopeful that with the additional 5 million in CR, and an uptick in ruxo sales that it hits your mark.

  • Looking back at 2nd and 3rd q income ( 142m and 161m) for incyte, I believe that going conservatively we see sales at 180m, royality at 20m, and contract revenue at 30m......revenue of 230m.......i see maddison has said 245m, it would be nice to see, but generally he is high. Ok, on R& D i see 140m plus , SG&A at 50m and other of 10m........total of 200m. Now, other costs that could arise that I have not included is employee stock compensation, hopefully none, but one never knows what the BOD decides to pass out. One item missing from last q that we will not have this time around, is a 31m charge on the debt conversion. Had this been missing from the 3rd q it would have been a much nicer report. All said 230m revenue, liabilities of 200m earnings of 30 million or a profit of 15.8 cents per share based on 190 million shares, note last year was 183.

    It is difficult to give forward estimates, as we need more time to see what the growth is from the q. I do not believe management will ever breakout, MF and PV sales. Hopefully it is growing very steadily in PV.
    We all know 1st q can come in light on revenue as people are getting deductibles filled. So I will low ball 2016 , until results on Thursday at 820m ruxo sales for Incyte.

    To note NVS did 121m this 4th q, and i believe it was either 105 or 109 in the 3rd q, so if the calendar year for both NVS and Incyte ended at the end of the 2nd q of 2016, sales rate for ruxo in this period would be about 1.1BILLION, thus hitting was is considered a huge hit in the pharama/ drug sales.

    It would be good to hear of how many countries are currently selling ruxo, and maybe status on or if there is any possibility of England coming on board.

    Soon, I will give what I feel might be a couple of items seen as competition/headwinds for Incyte.

  • interesting article in the taiwan today , if you google, could this be Incyte's pill supplier?

    article talks about huge growth in bio tech in the coming years for Taiwan

  • Reply to

    It appears we may have hit a bottom

    by ronbbck Feb 4, 2016 10:58 AM
    tjnelis tjnelis Feb 5, 2016 6:27 PM Flag

    yes, it is me , hope to change the mood........

    estimates for the q earnings of .08 h .22 l -.10 Rev 223.77 h of 246.28 l of 189.49

    I will be putting forth my estimates for the 4th q .....this coming weekend

    on trading today, sure seems like someone/institution is defending the 68 mark........stock would fall to this number ,then lots of buying.........

  • Reply to

    It appears we may have hit a bottom

    by ronbbck Feb 4, 2016 10:58 AM
    tjnelis tjnelis Feb 5, 2016 5:59 PM Flag

    bonk, some thoughts to help you. AMGN was hit more than likely from Pfizer and their S Korean partner as they are getting the initial nod from the FDA today on their new bio similar for RA, looking like approval next week. talk is they will come in with a 25%decrease in price than similiar drugs. You can google the the article. When Incyte got approval, the stock did not much of anything for nearly a month if you go back and look.

    It is interesting to note that their seems to be lots of trials failing and not very many new nda's being submitted to the fda lately, maybe this will speed up the process for bari, one can only hope. based on sales from NVS, I think the numbers will be good. management just needs to give focus on 2016 sales and not talk about 1q, as we know this is the weak q. Also they really need to shed light on the whole high and low CRP in CRC, seems that with no other trials halted, this maybe a big oversight by the analysts.

    With the new man on the helm at Gilead, except changes M & A, lots of companies with declining sales that need to aquire.....NVS,LLY,AZN,AMGN to name a few. I think they would like to see the report from Incyte before anyone would consider a move. IMHO

  • tjnelis by tjnelis Feb 3, 2016 6:51 PM Flag

    tofa sales for 2015 523m up from 308
    172m in 4th q up from 104

    just the facts no pumping, no bashing

  • even i find this to be too much of a sell off, it seems more likely that those in the know, started at about 105 / first trading day of the new year.

  • we shall see

  • tjnelis by tjnelis Jan 27, 2016 6:47 PM Flag

    (Reuters) - Incyte Corp said on Wednesday that it would stop a mid-stage study on its combination treatment after it failed to prove to be sufficiently effective to treat metastatic colorectal cancer.

    The results cast a shadow on the prospects of the drug, Jakafi, which is also being studied in a late-stage trial to treat advanced pancreatic cancer.

    Incyte's shares fell nearly 12 percent to $65.50 in extended trading.

    Piper Jaffray analysts said while it would be premature to write off the pancreatic cancer studies, the risk of success of Jakafi, or Ruxolitinib, had gone up.

    "Jakafi for solid tumors is one of the key pillars to support Incyte's valuation and potential upside, so we are not surprised to see the after-market weakness," the analysts wrote in a note to clients.

    Jakafi is an FDA-approved drug to treat people with bone marrow disorders such as polycythemia vera and blood disorders including myelofibrosis.

    Incyte was testing Jakafi in combination with Bayer AG's Regorafenib to treat metastatic colorectal cancer, in which diseased cells break away from the colon or rectum and spread to form tumors on other organs.

    "The last thing any company needs in the midst of the current biotech meltdown is a clinical trial setback," Piper Jaffray said.

  • Further study details as provided by Incyte Corporation:

    Primary Outcome Measures:
    Part 1: Determination of the dose of ruxolitinib that is safe and tolerable in combination with regorafenib as measured by the number of dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) observed in the evaluation cohort [ Time Frame: Baseline through Day 28 ] [ Designated as safety issue: Yes ]
    Part 2: Overall Survival (OS) [ Time Frame: Randomization until death due to any cause. Approximately 28 months.] ] [ Designated as safety issue: No ]

    Secondary Outcome Measures:
    Progression Free Survival (PFS) [ Time Frame: Randomization through disease progression, or death due to any cause if sooner. Approximately 28 months. ] [ Designated as safety issue: No ]
    PFS is defined as the time from randomization until the earliest date of disease progression determined by investigator assessment of objective radiographic disease assessments per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) v1.1, or death due to any cause, if sooner

    Objective Response Rate [ Time Frame: Baseline through end of study. Approximately 28 months. ] [ Designated as safety issue: No ]
    Objective response rate determined by radiographic disease assessments per RECIST v1.1, by investigator assessment

    Duration of Response [ Time Frame: Baseline through end of study. 28 months. ] [ Designated as safety issue: No ]
    Duration of response determined by radiographic disease assessment per RECIST v1.1, by investigator assessment

    Safety and tolerability of the treatment regimens assessed by a summary of adverse events and clinical laboratory assessments. [ Time Frame: Baseline through approximately 30 days post treatment discontinuation. Approximately 28 months. ] [ Designated as safety issue: Yes ]
    Disease Control [ Time Frame: Baseline through end of study. Approximately 28 months. ] [ Designated as safety issue: No ]
    Disease control as measured by the percentage of subjects whose best response was not progressive disease (PD) (ie, com

  • tjnelis by tjnelis Jan 27, 2016 6:33 PM Flag

    On September 27, 2012, the U. S. Food and Drug Administration approved regorafenib (Stivarga tablets, Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals, Inc.), for the treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) who have been previously treated with fluoropyrimidine-, oxaliplatin-, and irinotecan-based chemotherapy, an anti-VEGF therapy, and, if KRAS wild type, an anti-EGFR therapy.


    Regorafenib, and its active metabolites, inhibit multiple membrane-bound and intracellular kinases involved in normal cellular functions and in pathologic processes, including those in the RET, VEGFR1, VEGFR2, VEGFR3, KIT, PDGFR-alpha, PDGFR-beta, FGFR1, FGFR2, TIE2, DDR2, Trk2A, Eph2A, RAF-1, BRAF, BRAFV600E, SAPK2, PTK5, and Abl pathways.

    The approval was based on the results of an international, randomized (2:1), double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (Study 14387) enrolling 760 patients with previously treated mCRC. All patients had received prior treatment with fluoropyrimidine-, oxaliplatin-, and irinotecan-based chemotherapy and with bevacizumab. All but one patient with KRAS wild-type tumors received panitumumab or cetuximab. Patients in the regorafenib arm received 160 mg regorafenib orally once daily for the first 21 days of each 28-day cycle plus best supportive care. Those in the control group received matching placebo with best supportive care.

    A statistically significant prolongation in overall survival was observed in patients randomized to receive regorafenib [hazard ratio (HR) 0.77 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.94); p=0.0102]. The median survival time was 6.4 months (95% CI: 5.8, 7.3) in the regorafenib arm and 5.0 months (95% CI: 4.4, 5.8) in the placebo arm.

    The trial also demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival [HR 0.49 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.58); p

  • only this will cause more dilution, as insiders will now gift more free stuff to themselves, oh and never, never, never buy any shares with their own cash

  • looks like another down day coming tomorrow

  • given to them just 2 weeks after the latest January options dole out .........

  • sellers rule the turd

  • gem is more like a turd

  • no buyers on level 2

  • Reply to

    shorts

    by davidribet Jan 26, 2016 11:52 AM
    tjnelis tjnelis Jan 26, 2016 12:13 PM Flag

    I bet you are maddi , 130 by friday

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