Earning next quarter will decline year over year, a 10-15% dividend increase won't do anything, they already blew through 40 billion in buybacks and no one believes anything Cook says. It's simply amazing a company as big as Apple can't work on two different things at the same time.
One thing with TGB there is always an excuse for underperforming. It's a lower grade copper this quarter? That's a new one. Usually it's the dog ate my copper, or we couldn't get to the dock or the copper went bad, or our hedge backfired, or the conveyor belt ran backward putting the copper back into the ground, or it was too cold (or too hot), or to rainy (or too dry).
Honestly if they say it's a lower grade of copper if I were covering the call I would have to ask why that's never been an issue before?
Well, they've got most of the world fooled. And lets not forget it took Apple how long to admit the 3.5 inch screen wasn't "perfect." Cook has already admitted growth in N America is over.
Not sure if people just don't want to believe it or if they want to ignore it, but that's the reality. Sure there will be some growth in emerging markets, but that impact will be minimal considering the sales done in the US.
One of the biggest companies in the world can't come up with more than 1 new product every 4 years…not the best sign for the future.
No kidding Sherlock, but the obvious reason is Cook needs the shares higher to dump his shares in March. Wouldn't surprise me if he spends another 10 billion between no and then trying to get it even higher. What does he care? It's the shareholders money and he just wants to make as much when he sells as possible.
Too cold? Too hot? Too much rain? Too much snow? Couldn't find the port? The dog ate 27 tons of copper? They ran the belt in reverse by accident for half the quarter putting Copper back into the ground? (hmmm, they did pre announce a 35% increase in copper so that one is probably out). Their hedge backfired?
I guess they don't really need an excuse. They can just come in with the estimated three cents a share and suck naturally.
Do the improvements they made ever actually impact the bottom line?
How is Cook betting for himself? First, he's using shareholder money, and Second, he get a direct benefit from the share price being higher. If anything he's manipulating the price since he has options that will vest in March. Apparently you don't realize how options work, but in his case the lower the share price the less money he makes.
I hear you in theory, but the reality is if there aren't new products coming they should have saved the money to buyback the shares at $400…or lower. This will support the share price for a while, but they really need new products to get growth back on track or buying back at these prices will turn out to be a waste of money.
I'm with you. If the future is so bright what does he care about a short term drop? And why not buy back last year when it was under $400? I think someone is trying to meet a performance goal to trigger a bigger bonus.
I have a hard time seeing EPS drop to $36 during a massive buyback, but could easily see it happening once the buyback is over. I mean last quarter is now around $15 when you consider the additional shares out of circulation. They should be able to squeeze 9-10 for the next 3 quarters considering they've gone from 940 million shares to about 865 and should get down to 830 with just the remaining money left. Considering they will increase the buyback to at least 100 billion in March/April, that number drops further to around 755…
Who knows? Maybe they do have great things coming and people will wonder why they ignored Cook…but I doubt it.
Yeah, I hear that a lot from the Cook supporters. When was the iPad released again? Was it last year? The year before? The year before that? No, it's going on 4 years.
But more than that, Apple is now one of the biggest companies in the world. Is expecting something new every couple of year really that unrealistic from a huge company? It's no longer the sub 100 billion dollar market cap company that could get away with a new release every so often. As the company grows resources grow and the capability of producing more products should grow with it.
As for Ichan, plenty of rich guys have made mistakes. As a matter of fact most would say it was their mistakes that lead them to their success. But, sure, Apple is a low risk investment, but it's also turned into a low reward investment as well. Now we're supposed to trust Cook, a guy who in my estimate doesn't have a ton of credibility or a proven track record of innovation, that new things are coming.
Hey, it's not the board's money, it's the shareholders money, and when the CEO of the company sells every share he gets when it vests I'm not sure I really trust the board anyway. Do any members of the board even have a sizable stake in Apple? I know Cook doesn't.
Cook has been implying this for 18 months…and nothing earth shattering so far. You could make the counter argument that buying that much back in such a short time was a desperate attempt to support the stock price and inflate EPS when there is no net revenue growth. If $500 was such a great price why not $380 like it was a year ago or in the low to mid 400s like it was for most of last year?
Cook is now the CEO that cried wolf. He calls everything great and exciting so it's hard to take anything he says seriously. Plus some guys probably need the share price higher so they can sell all their shares when they vest.
Executives have targets to meet for bonuses. I believe Cook has some options maturing in March that he will want to sell and probably needs the price higher.
Agreed, first thing I thought of was where would the price have dropped without the buyback.
Also true. "Only" 20 billion in domestic cash left after the 14 billion in buybacks they just disclosed. They still have 33 billion left to raise on the plan from last year so I imagine there will be more debt taken on in March/April, but they "only" have 18 billion of the 60 billion allocated just last year left to spend so either they need to increase the buybacks or their attempts to support the stock price with buybacks will be coming to a close.
Seems desperate to me to unload that much cash that fast. If $500 was such a good price why didn't they buy even more last year when it was sub-400? Someone has a bonus they need to hit.
Saying "barely" made 40B last year is pretty stupid. Poor way to end your point.
Uh, Apple moves $10 a day all the time. And no, it would be insane to buy them back…they got the dividend and can just sell puts at the same level as the calls to make more money.
No, anyone who owned the stock on 2/5 would get the dividend regardless of ownership today. If you sold on 2/6 (the ex-date, the first day the stock trades without the dividend) you will still get it. Likewise if you bought on 2/6 or later you would not.
So buy it and stop crying about the stock price. What growth? Net revenue isn't, gross revenue was barely growing and projects to be flat next quarter. That's growth to you?
And six years is way too short a time frame, but think what you want.