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Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Message Board

tkmadwilliam 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 11, 2014 11:46 AM Member since: Jan 29, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Equity offering coming?

    by stockpickinmoron Dec 10, 2014 8:01 PM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 11, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    My view is that the first lien senior lenders are well covered by asset values, and could disburse funds, but that second lien Apollo is much more exposed if things don't work out. I presume (reading between the lines) that Geisler is pursuing more than one way to fund Badami, but my gut says Apollo is the hold up. They already got another 100 bp added to loan margin to give the waiver. I am sure they want more for another "ask".

  • tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 10, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    Well, that might be good, or they may lease. In remote regions a plane is needed. But what the heck, it will still probably save money.

  • Reply to

    An Out of Ignorance Accounitng Question

    by foreverwhiteroses Dec 10, 2014 10:39 AM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 10, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Also, doesn't AK give a reimbursement based on the "Carry Forward annual loss credit"?

  • Reply to

    Anyone know when Badami closes?

    by chessmaster6752 Dec 8, 2014 9:58 AM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 8, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    For the record, Long - ouch- but not overextended like some. I think you have taken a deeper dive than me, and thanks for the color. MILL has a lot on its plate, but for me the key is liquidity and wise use of funds. The next few months will make or break the company. I know that is a gratuitously obvious comment, but this is Geisler's moment. If he pulls this off, he has a great career in the oil industry ahead of him. If not, we may have to exit stage Left.

  • Reply to

    Anyone know when Badami closes?

    by chessmaster6752 Dec 8, 2014 9:58 AM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 8, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Agreed, JV partner and a rig are key points, and I presume you mean HILC. Any thoughts on range of likely working interest and net revenue interest ? MILL needs to get this asset productive asap.

  • Reply to

    Anyone want to make a bet on whether MILL

    by pa1702 Dec 2, 2014 4:17 PM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 5, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    I think they went for proving reserves to get cheaper funds via the bank borrowing base. now they got that BB and are done messing around with RU, they can move on to the cheap and easy.

  • Reply to

    Kinder Morgan

    by boss1819 Dec 2, 2014 5:01 PM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 2, 2014 8:36 PM Flag

    don't think so - its an Inc.

  • Reply to

    An interesting comment on pricing...

    by akadvisor2014 Dec 2, 2014 3:43 PM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 2, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    These guys will not go into a self destructive price war. Both lose. My bet is sound minds prevail at both companies. Both sides will wait to see what market share ABBV gets based on their pricing. If, as most of the "experts" say, GILD has a superior product in terms of risk profile and success rate, then how much more market share can ABBV gain by dropping prices by another 5%? Probably not much. ABBV would likely just stand pat. Only if ABBV can make disproportionate more revenue with a price drop will price will we get a price war. Will ABBV have an elasticity of demand greater than 1 when faced with GILD's superior substitute?

  • Reply to

    RU3 & RU4 up next

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:03 PM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 2, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    Thanks guys. I agree with Geisler's approach, as outlined in the last news (Dec 10 CC). Gas is good at $7. I think North Fork will get attention, but probably with only 1 rig and I wonder about capacity constraints on offtake/midstream. But my numbers suggest MILL needs more than just NF, so I was curious about your comments. They are helpful. One item I keep in mind is the time lag between paying for capex and getting the AK state credit.. By my reckoning it takes about 3 months lag, so its still capital intensive upfront. Of course recycling the state credit helps in round 2 of the drill-out. Overall, I think the company needs to be very focused on liquidity, low risk execution, rapid ROC and decline curves.

  • Reply to

    RU3 & RU4 up next

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:03 PM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Dec 2, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    where do you get that $10 mm per well cost? Anyone got a feel for the decline curve?

  • Reply to


    by tkmadwilliam Oct 31, 2014 10:32 AM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Oct 31, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    I noticed insiders buying in July and August. One director, PAKIANATHAN DEEPIKA, bought in open market 2 mm shares in August.

  • Reply to

    Need some help

    by gpls72 Oct 28, 2014 7:54 AM
    tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Oct 31, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    I think there are several good points to digest. Yes, selling shares in strong market is best and results in less dilution and probably in a lower discount to market. I think cyoung has a grip on the numbers and CTIX will need more cash to advance projects and create value. Also, if they are correct in that they have a new class of antibiotics, its a big deal. I suspect its in every party's interest to advance the proof, get a better valuation, de-risk the IP and then think about strategic options. Speaking for myself, I would like to see some third party validation of the claims that this is a new class. Also, I noticed that a side effect was "tingling" in extremities, but this appears to be temporary.

  • tkmadwilliam by tkmadwilliam Oct 31, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    For at least a month now there is a pretty good pattern of OMED moving in sync with BIB, the biotech ETF. That is no surprise, of course. However, today the two diverge with BIB up (3% intraday) and OMED down #$%$ intraday). Any thoughts on what gives? Is it just noise?

  • tkmadwilliam tkmadwilliam Oct 27, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    Quick two shot of Qs. And as a preamble, I am not trying to rain on anyone's parade, just trying to get some facts. First, has an independent, credible, third party confirmed brilacidin works by a novel pathway? I understand the company asserts that it is a defensin-mimetic, but who else says that? Two, isn't the company a bit low on cash these days, and isn't a financing of some sort needed (how much?) to keep the momentum? Thanks.

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