What do you think about the large OTM call buys mentioned above? The share price only needs to go up around $6 in the next few months from when they were purchased for these calls to double in value.
This is part 2 which has been blocked from posting.
"Senior management repeatedly said they would make Twitter easier to understand, and hinted at plans to monetize inactive accounts. Analysts remained skeptical. The talk sparked a bout of upside call buying.
On Wednesday, when the stock was down 10% in reaction to earnings, bouncing around $28, an investor paid 59 cents for 6,600 January 55 calls that expire in 2017. A similar-size trade occurred in the January 60 calls. These are lottery tickets for Twitter’s stock price doubling by 2017.
Before the earnings release, we advised investors to buy the stock when it was around $29.71 and sell January 26 puts for $1.60. The position is still attractive for aggressive investors who want to build a Twitter position.
The Street is rightfully unable to give Twitter credit before results appear. Investors, however, should remember that while the market is always right on price, it has a terrible sense of timing. Twitter represents a new way of communicating, and it will take time to fully monetize the platform."
Twitter: Keeping the Faith in a Turnaround
The social-media pioneer is struggling to regain momentum. Investors should remember that a quarter doesn’t make a company.By STEVEN M. SEARS
Oct. 31, 2015 12:59 a.m. ET
Companies are judged quarterly on their financial results, but they are never built over a quarter. This is a good reminder for investors who doubt Twitter —and for those who believe in the pioneering social-media company.
Last week, Twitter (ticker: TWTR) reported solid earnings. A mixed outlook initially chopped about 11% off the stock price. Then, just as dramatically, the stock regained most of its losses and has since traded with some volatility.
While it is difficult to overlook the modest growth in Wall Street’s favorite Twitter metric—monthly active users—the company is more than one measurement. Twitter’s monthly active users rose 11%, to 320 million, in the third quarter. The Street wanted 321.3 million.
Now, it’s up to Jack Dorsey, Twitter’s co-founder and new chief executive, to prove Twitter’s value to skeptical investors and users. The company’s modest fourth-quarter outlook makes that imperative.
For even though Twitter’s third-quarter earnings exceeded the Street’s expectations, fourth-quarter sales guidance ran from $695 million to $710 million. Investors wanted $740 million.
This disconnect overshadowed Twitter’s third-quarter earnings of 10 cents a share on revenue of $569 million. The Street expected earnings per share of five cents on $560 million. Meanwhile, Twitter’s new management team—Dorsey; Adam Bain, chief operating officer; and Anthony Noto, chief financial officer—demonstrated on the postearnings call that they understand issues important to users and investors. This is a soft point, but ultimately critical; it indicates that management is aligned with the proper facts.
End of Part 1
Stifel Research Analyst Scott Devitt just changed his rating from hold to buy.
Jon Najarian bought in this morning. He said it is undervalued and should easily move up to the mid 30s.
A lot of the traders are playing the run up to earnings for a quick profit and maybe holding a small portion through earnings. Right after earnings, these traders will sell their remaining position, whether up or down. Both AAPL and TWTR had a run up going into earnings. Looks like the next play will be FB.
Some of the traders on CNBC mentioned that these stocks may be dead money for awhile. Those who sold at a loss may be bound by the one month WASH Rule for buying back in. One month should bring us to black Friday hopefully for the beginning of a tech rally.
During an interview in Aug, Buffett said his average cost basis for IBM was around 170. Buffett has spoken against derivatives in the past, but I would not be surprised if he is now working with options. In order to lower his cost basis, he should sell short OTM puts rather than just buying more shares.
Balmer's net worth is around 10% more than the market cap of Twitter. His position in TWTR comes to slightly less than 4% of his net worth.
NASA Federal Credit Union is offering 100% mortgage financing. You do not have to work at NASA to apply for the loan. Even better, PMI (private mortgage insurance) is not required for this loan. The 110% loans should be coming soon, just like in 2006.
Actually better in Atlantic City. If the ball lands on 0 or 00, you will only lose half of your bet in Atlantic City.
The 268 support level appears to be holding, at least for today. Looks like the 250 area is next is it breaks down.
Now retesting the previous high of 16.15 from Aug 31. Need more buyers to come in and move it.
Looks like this trade has worked out very well. He had paid around 0.60 for this spread. TLT is now over 124. If it stays there, this trader will have made 400%.
Today on CNBC around 1:15 PM, Jon N. announced there was big call purchase for TLT. TLT rallied shortly thereafter. Jon suggested that the buyer may have known that there was not going to be a rate increase today. There was even talk that this info had been leaked.