The rally on Friday of last week was probably caused by the short covering and the MaxPain being 25.
The MaxPain calculated for this week as of today is 21.50 which is essentially the same as today's closing price. I have not had the chance to study the effect of MaxPain on the price of USO, but I would expect it's influence would be less than for a conventional stock such as AAPL.
The time premium portion of an option is always at it's highest value at the strike which is nearest to the current share price. OTM (out of the money) calls are cheaper because of the higher probability that these calls will expire worthless than an ATM (at the money) call. The buyer of an ITM (in the money) call will have two risks: 1) losing intrinsic value should the share price drop and 2) losing the time premium portion of the call. This is why the time premium portion for an ITM call is less than for an ATM call. Notice that the time premium portion for the July 19 calls is essentially the same as the time premium for the July 25 calls.
Dennis Gartman was on CNBC today. He had been calling for oil in the 40s but today he said we may have seen the bottom based on this weeks price action.
The MaxPain for this week's USO options exp is 25. This has probably provided an upward bias for the share price.
It looks like a possible double bottom being formed.
Six years ago when oil peaked around 150, the experts were predicting it to go even higher by 30%.
Today, they are predicting oil to go even lower by 30%.
Are you doing call spreads? Longer term call spreads would reduce the drawdown should oil continue it's decline.
A lot of traders are still playing USO short but also do not want to get caught on the wrong side of a major reversal. Did you notice that Tuesday's low was 20.53 and today's low so far is 20.54. They are now watching to see if it breaks below 20.53 before adding to their short positions.
Every day has been lower highs and lower lows. If it can stay above yesterday's low, buyers should start coming in.
It best to scale into your long position.
The trend has been lower highs and lower lows for awhile. If at least one of these can reverse, it may give traders some confidence to start accumulating a long position. With today's new low, a close above 22 may do it.
I am thinking of doing a 3 way call spread. With UVXY around 28.75, sell March 30 call, buy March 29 call, sell March 50 call for a net credit of around 5.00
At exp, profit would be 6.00 with UVXY between 30-50. Profit would be 5.00 with UVXY under 29. Breakeven with UVXY at 56. Loss would begin with UVXY above 56.
This is an extensive article posted in Seeking Alpha on 12-13-2014.
The author feels CZR is now a buy with the potential to rise to $60.
He has a few recommendations for a reconstituted Caesars which includes selling the weakest properties and doing a prepackaged bankruptcy.
You may also want to read the comments for this article.
In 1990, the Wall Street Journal had disclosed that Donald Trump was in imminent defalult at Trump Castle Casino. Donald Trump had surreptitiously borrowed 3 million from his father Fred Trump to help him make a 18.4 million Castle Casino bond payment. A week before Christmas, Trump had Howard Snyder, an attorney for his father, walk into the Castle, go up to a cashier's window, and buy 3 million in chips and leave with those chips. With that 3 million, Trump had the money he needed to make the bond payment.
This was probably better than just directly borrowing the money from his father. By waiting to cash in the 3 million in chips at some future date, the casino would show an immediate profit which in turn would provide further confidence to the bond and shareholders.
The fact that large institutions or funds own a stock should not be a vote of confidence. Consider DNDN which just a few years ago was trading over $50. It recently went BK and is now trading under 25 cents. A lot of large institutions and funds rode this stock all the way down to BK. However, DNDN was only a very small % of their holdings, some as low as 0.1%
CZR is only around 1% of the holdings owned by Omega. For a retail investor having a portfolio with worth 100K, this would only amount to a risk of 1K. For a portfolio similar to funds holding over 1000 different stocks with CZR as 0.1%, this would only amount to a risk of $100. If CZR is only 1% or less of your portfolio, then it would not make any significant impact if it were to go BK. Maybe this is why the large holders are not concerned. This would just be considered the cost of diversification.
Unless CZR is a very small % of your portfolio, then you should be concerned about the risk.
S&P is down AH but still higher than yesterday's close. UVXY now at 29.18 AH.
Lower highs and lower lows for 2 weeks. Today's low of 22.95 is the same as yesterday's. Lets see if the traders will become bullish if this level can hold.
The share price of USO has decayed over the years as a result of Contango. USO does not actually own oil but instead relies upon oil futures contracts. In a contangoed market, when the futures prices are higher than the spot price, USO loses money each time it rolls contracts to a costlier later-dated contract by selling low and buying high. Eventually, it will have to do a reverse split to survive. For an extreme example of contango, take a look at the historical chart for UVXY.
Big move up for financials this week. C and XLF are at new highs. I have calls on BAC. Will 2015 be the year for financials?