I am mostly doing short term trading with UVXY, VXX, QQQ, AAPL. I like the very narrow bid/ask spreads for the QQQ. My first buy in is usually a spread position. Regardless of how good I think I am at finding a bottom, I am usually wrong about half the time. My second buy in will then be open calls. This is what I did this morning with QQQ. I closed out the open long calls shortly after it filled the opening gap. Both VXX and UVXY puts are good as long as the bid/ask spreads are not too wide.
The consensus here is that DB is either going to 30 or 0. A strangle or a straddle would appear to be the best strategy to play this out. Any thoughts on the best exp month and strikes?
I noticed that with TWTR at 14.31, you could buy the Jan2017 10/15 call spread for around 2.55
Your effective share purchase price would be 12.55
This would give you almost 100% profit if shares are over 15 at option exp.
Back in 2008 when oil was at it's peak of $150, Goldman was predicting it to go 33% higher to $200.
Now that it is $30, Goldman is predicting it to go 33% lower to $20.
The author of the recent SA article "The Perfect Short Part II" is calling for a S&P low of 1350 in 2016 and a low of 1100 in 2017. He sees the fair value at 1350.
One troubling sign is the abundance of zero down mortgages being offered. San Francisco Federal Credit Union has a loan program that will allow San Francisco-area borrowers to finance up to 100% of their mortgage – with no requirement for mortgage insurance – on loans up to $2 million. The borrower only has to be 18 years or older. This is an adjustable rate mortgage.
Imagine someone buying a 2 million home with no money down and ends up being laid off or relocated. If the property drops just 10%, it would cost him over 300K out of his pocket just to sell it and make a clean break from his home.
NUGT has had 3 reverse splits of 1:5, 1:10, and 1:10 during it's 5 year lifetime.
DUST has had 1 forward split of 2:1 during this same period.
$10,000 invested in NUGT during this period would now be worth $25
$10,000 invested in DUST during this period would now be worth $2,400
(from the site "split history")
The earliest date I could find for DUST is 12/31/2010
The closing price for this day was 20.19
Although there was a forward split, since the chart adjusts for this split, we could go ahead and just use the $20 price as the buy in price for $10,000.
Today's price being around $5.00 means that DUST has lost around 75% of the buy in amount. This means that the remaining balance of $2,400 would be correct.
GDX was 61.47 on 12-31-2010. At the current price of 18.42, GDX is down 70% for this time period. This is probably why DUST has held up so well compared to NUGT.
Maybe this is all just a big show by Apple to prove to the Apple users that the company is looking after their privacy. Apple may be in secret negotiations to assist the gov on a case by case basis. The gov wants the terrorists to keep thinking that the gov cannot access their cellphones. This is the best way for the gov to monitor their activities. This could end up being a win/win for both the gov and Apple.
I have Fidelity Active Trader Pro quotes. Some of the option volumes for YANG is showing up as over 10,000,000 calls. This would cost the buyers 10 billion for buying this one option strike. This is obviously an error. This seems to happen occasionally. Always good to check with another quote source if you see something like this.
This is the current call/put ratio for SPY:
volume: 1 : 1.51
open interest: 1 : 2.04
Have you noticed that almost everyone now on CNBC is bearish about the market and are recommending short positions. Needs to break through 201.35 before we see the next leg up.
SPY broke through the 201.35 key level today. Looks like it wants to fill the 203.87 gap. With the SPY open interest of 2 puts for every 1 call, we may not see any substantial declines.
Very bullish as indicated by the call/put ratio for DUST.
Volume: call/put 7 / 1
Open Interest: call/put 3.47 / 1
With DUST at 4.05:
The Sept 2.00/5.00 call spread can be bought for around 1.20
Your effective share price would be 3.20
Max potential profit would be 150%
The Sept 2.00/4.00 call spread can be bought for around 0.90
Your effective share price would be 2.90
Max potential profit would be 122%
These are plays on time premium, perhaps something to supplement an existing long position. The effective cost being below the current share price should give you a protective cushion. Due to effect of contango and time decay, profit should be taken before expiration, unless the share price goes up and remains above 5.00/4.00
I am looking at the June 45/55 call spread. A chance to make 2x if it goes back up to 55.
Who are the buyers? Maybe Ackman is adding to his position.
The April 1, 35.00 puts look good with a bid/ask of 3.70/4.10 with VRX at 38.75
Actually we should be glad there is a class of very wealthy people. The top 1 percent of California resident income tax filers paid just over 50 percent of overall revenues collected in 2012. This amount should be even higher for the current year.
GDX has just made a new 52 week high. GLD has failed to do so today. Keep an eye on the 122.37, 52 week high for GLD. It will have to break above this level for GDX to have any sustained rally.
Are you saying that anyone trading the miners should just ignore the price of gold?
One is the commodity while the other is the business of producing the commodity. This is similar to comparing oil to XLE. Of course they will not track precisely together, but close enough where they should not be ignored.