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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

tmguven 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 16, 2014 2:41 PM Member since: Jul 23, 2012
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  • Reply to

    BMO Aug20 update

    by reg_got2 Sep 15, 2014 3:00 PM
    tmguven tmguven Sep 16, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    Reggot, thanks for that response. It is really in these assumptions that one can start to see the variables, sometimes quite wide, that exist. How that discount rate adjusts up and down changes a lot of dollars in the NPV. This probably should be in a new thread, but what is the limiting factor on the mill at MM? If you know, I guess I am asking, if crushing were not a factor, what is the upper limit on the mill, or even other extenuating factors, to process? If they had two complete crushing lines, could the mill process 100 ktpd without a lot of extra investment outside of these crushers? I am also interested in your thoughts that 62-65 is achievable with a secondary....is that your being a bit conservative too? Thanks again.

  • Reply to

    BMO Aug20 update

    by reg_got2 Sep 15, 2014 3:00 PM
    tmguven tmguven Sep 16, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Appreciate it Reggot for filling in the numbers here; gives a good perspective of their position. Thank you. Do you think 10% is about right?

  • Reply to

    BMO Aug20 update

    by reg_got2 Sep 15, 2014 3:00 PM
    tmguven tmguven Sep 15, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    In this instance I/we do not know what the interest rate/discount rate was used in this NPV calculation. If the discount rate is high enough for the perceived risk, risk for mines in this sector, as long as the NPV is greater than 0 the project is good. Very important consideration. Also we do not know what the price of gold or copper will be several years out, or what was used in this NPV calculation. This gets less important the further out you go, but this project just started. Finally, the mention of a secondary crusher is developed in the BMO statement, yet it is difficult to know what the tpd will be with that. They, BMO, in their calculation do not seem to go beyond nameplate with a secondary crusher; and that is reasonable as it is difficult to know at this point, yet on the conf call there was mention that the mine could go beyond 60,000 tpd with a secondary crusher, and that certainly will be a consideration, if not drastic consideration for a NPV calculation. Finally, there is a number of other things: I do not think this NPV is taking into account Moly, nor, the tremendous reserves that have been hinted at around Mt. Milligan. And this just begins to get at some of the variables, i.e. exchange rates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tmguven tmguven Sep 5, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Foggie, thanks for the remind. Listened: C&M at TC mine is pretty certain, but Perron did say that stripping makes a lot of sense above $12 moly (even to go on their own). Found the conversation on the evaluation process to partner with someone at TC mine interesting on the dynamics going on with the current price of moly and the new capacity coming online, and then the tail off of that new capacity. Also, think that his expanded explanation on new crushing via the time-frames of rock mix between softer, hard and really hard rock was helpful: The current mix of rock (softer due to weathered closer to the surface) doesn't need the new crushing to get to 60,000 tpd, but depending on the mix of softer to really hard rock, this blend will last 3 to 6 years before getting into just harder grades of rock that will probably need more crushing capacity.

  • tmguven tmguven Sep 2, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    Dollar is just getting back to where it was at the beginning of the year, and still a ways below last year's highs. As far as gold, I have watched a lot of retail demand for gold in the mid $1200's. We are there, much lower and a lot of physical starts to be taken out. But like Ultra is saying, momentarily the powers that be would like to weaken gold as part of tightening the screws on Russia.

  • Reply to

    can't hold $3

    by zakattak46 Aug 29, 2014 7:28 PM
    tmguven tmguven Aug 30, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    If you really believe that, we will not see you for a couple of years, no?

  • tmguven tmguven Aug 20, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    Light, you are covered by your long spread all the way through and you have lowered your breakeven. (long 30 Jan 2 calls, short 60 Jan 3 calls, long 30 Jan 4 calls) In your example, breakeven now $2.23 and $3.77. Total loss $.22. If you check with your brokerage they should see that this is a covered long position.

  • tmguven tmguven Aug 20, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    Light, take it to the next step with your current position and sell 30 Jan 3 calls and buy 30 Jan 4 calls. Recalculate. :)

  • Reply to

    Marmara Metal

    by bromma_bull Aug 14, 2014 4:18 PM
    tmguven tmguven Aug 18, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    ML, Fidan would be an interesting target, especially since some of the recordings that were leaked were not favorable to him--i.e. his suggestion, let's bomb Turkey and make it look like Syria so that we can cause justification for the US to go into Syria--however, if it was him that would be an interesting dynamic. I guess that is what good spooks are made of. I should have been a little clearer, it was not Gulen himself that did the wiretapping, but since there is such a deep following of Gulenist's among the police and judicial and business, i.e. Tuskon, that word got back to him of what was on the tapes. Now who leaked them, good question, but it caused the Government to shut down Youtube in Turkey.

  • Reply to

    Marmara Metal

    by bromma_bull Aug 14, 2014 4:18 PM
    tmguven tmguven Aug 15, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Jay, one of the things we need to watch is that the Turks are big on announcements, yet in reality many/most things do not materialize. I just put their announcement up from last Fall that was posted on their web site. That being said there is a couple things: I had a friend (Istanbul based) look into their (Marmara Metals) shipments and did not see the kind of movements that would indicate that they were the size of their capitalization. Secondly, Turkey is imo a mess now. Erdoğan, the prime minister and now just elected president has been taking kick backs etc. to the tune of upwards of a Billion dollars. His whole corp of ministers were sacked back after the December 17 raids; they too taking bribes. This situation is evolving, and to try to contain it the AKP party in power has taken over the media, put reporters in jail, and sacked thousands of police officers and hundreds of judges looking into the corruption. All phone lines are tapped; my partners and I will not talk of politics but in person. Now Marmara metals bought before the December 17. Now I delve into speculation; the scandal had at its roots the trading of gold for oil to get by the sanctions placed on Iran. Because it was being done under the table it was ripe for kickbacks and that is what was happening, and in big amounts. Here is where I wonder if Marmara Metals was moving some "funds". The whole thing had a falling out in December with Gulen, who is a spiritual leader and Imam holed up in a farmhouse in Pennsylvania, had a falling out with Erdoğan. Gulen had deep roots into the Police and Judges, and was wiretapping everything, even the Prime Ministers cell phone. It is against this backdrop the Marmara Metals world has changed since last fall. There is a lot more to this story.

  • Reply to

    Marmara Metal

    by bromma_bull Aug 14, 2014 4:18 PM
    tmguven tmguven Aug 15, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Dragon, this was on their web site: Regarding the news that were mentioned in 24.October.2013 dated Metal Pages and 25.October.2013 Metal Bulletin our company MARMARA METAL declared that besides its existing “Trader” identity, Marmara Metal have decided to move in part into the production side of the industry. Whilst Marmara Metal invested a 5.3% share in Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc., Marmara Metal signed an agreement with Chinese Mining Research Group. Under Marmara Metal’s structure, they now possess around its own mining licenses. The Chinese Group has sent their research group to Turkey right now. As a result of this partnership, there is a common production plan for Copper, Nickel and Chrome Ore. This is strategically tied into the investment into Thompson Creek, whom are already a running projects in this sector and materials, therefore Marmara Metal decided to buy 5,3% of their stocks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm glad to see the price rising.

    by larrry46 Aug 12, 2014 3:13 PM
    tmguven tmguven Aug 13, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    Light, let me just say, and I addressed this issue once before with you, but at $2.90's during the CC we did not know what the stock was going to do. It was only in the $2.90's for a very short time; counted in minutes, not hours. Yet if a few people did what you did, it is no wonder this stock does not go through $3. This stock is too thinly traded and there are too few new investors that know about this company; so day traders carry the day.

  • Reply to

    Funding for TC Phase 8 Stripping

    by jay998898 Aug 6, 2014 12:15 PM
    tmguven tmguven Aug 8, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    I appreciate your comments here Reg. If you would go down this route at MM, how would you ever know if the original plan would have met or even exceeded nameplate? How do you put together an IRR for the new incremental not knowing the original performance potential? Is that a logical question?

  • Reply to

    My Concerns . . .

    by dirklp44 Aug 6, 2014 5:54 PM
    tmguven tmguven Aug 6, 2014 6:46 PM Flag

    + Dirk. I am with you Dirk....This is the kind of broad question that should have been put forward in the CC today, or now to the Board. The Moly does two things, keeps them diversified and provides cash. Without it where is the cash coming from. It has been mentioned here (primarily by Ultra) that Phase 8 of TC mine could come in as East wall and then West wall, with a smaller initial outlay and then spending the total $80 million as operations ramp up and from cash flow there. Basic stuff to any business, but apparently not here. They do not have to put the 2nd crusher in till later either. They are on schedule at MM, just complete the ramp up, see what you have, and then talk about expanding. To throw this 2nd crusher in now just gives another cloud on the ramp up to deal with.

  • Reply to

    A new America economy

    by iraqwartosavecamel_j Jul 23, 2014 5:34 PM
    tmguven tmguven Jul 24, 2014 12:49 AM Flag

    Two Hump, Strong sell and you keep 10,000 shares?

  • Alert Triggered for Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. The consensus earnings estimate for this year Increased from $0.33 to $0.34. (Reuters report provided by Schwab)

    7/22/14 Increased from $0.33 to $0.34
    7/15/14 Increased by 4.72% from $0.32 to $0.33
    7/10/14 Increased by 3.27% from $0.31 to $0.32
    7/7/14 Increased by 6.99% from $0.29 to $0.31
    6/27/14 Increased by 7.12% from $0.27 to $0.29
    5/22/14 Increased by 23.38% from $0.22 to $0.27
    5/21/14 Increased by 7.23% from $0.20 to $0.22
    5/19/14 Increased by 9.38% from $0.18 to $0.20
    5/12/14 Decreased by 17.73% from $0.21 to $0.17
    5/9/14 Increased by 9.78% from $0.19 to $0.21
    5/5/14 Decreased by 32.08% from $0.28 to $0.19
    4/23/14 Increased by 10.24% from $0.25 to $0.28
    4/7/14 Increased by 7.78% from $0.23 to $0.25
    2/26/14 Decreased by 30.20% from $0.35 to $0.24

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Alert Triggered for Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. The consensus earnings estimate for this year Increased by 4.72% from $0.32 to $0.33. (Reuters report provided by Schwab)

    7/15/14 Increased by 4.72% from $0.32 to $0.33
    7/10/14 Increased by 3.27% from $0.31 to $0.32
    7/7/14 Increased by 6.99% from $0.29 to $0.31
    6/27/14 Increased by 7.12% from $0.27 to $0.29
    5/22/14 Increased by 23.38% from $0.22 to $0.27
    5/21/14 Increased by 7.23% from $0.20 to $0.22
    5/19/14 Increased by 9.38% from $0.18 to $0.20
    5/12/14 Decreased by 17.73% from $0.21 to $0.17
    5/9/14 Increased by 9.78% from $0.19 to $0.21
    5/5/14 Decreased by 32.08% from $0.28 to $0.19
    4/23/14 Increased by 10.24% from $0.25 to $0.28
    4/7/14 Increased by 7.78% from $0.23 to $0.25
    2/26/14 Decreased by 30.20% from $0.35 to $0.24

  • tmguven tmguven Jul 11, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Private, the pps movement as the Bible says might come "as a thief in the night." I hope it is a thief for shorts. :) This stock is highly controlled now--and has been--by large money. They are getting their signals together. Gosh, we have large trades (50,000 to 200,000) going through and they are going through on 1/2 cent bids. And then you have a thousand or two trade that moves it 3 or 4 cents. I put in a 1000 share trade at market today and it took several minutes to fill at 100 and 200 shares a time. We just have to wait for the big guys to get ready to move.

  • Alert Triggered for Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. The consensus earnings estimate for this year Increased by 3.27% from $0.31 to $0.32. (Reuters report provided by Schwab)

    7/10/14 Increased by 3.27% from $0.31 to $0.32
    7/7/14 Increased by 6.99% from $0.29 to $0.31
    6/27/14 Increased by 7.12% from $0.27 to $0.29
    5/22/14 Increased by 23.38% from $0.22 to $0.27
    5/21/14 Increased by 7.23% from $0.20 to $0.22
    5/19/14 Increased by 9.38% from $0.18 to $0.20
    5/12/14 Decreased by 17.73% from $0.21 to $0.17
    5/9/14 Increased by 9.78% from $0.19 to $0.21
    5/5/14 Decreased by 32.08% from $0.28 to $0.19
    4/23/14 Increased by 10.24% from $0.25 to $0.28
    4/7/14 Increased by 7.78% from $0.23 to $0.25
    2/26/14 Decreased by 30.20% from $0.35 to $0.24

  • Reply to

    What Now?

    by do_lo_smith Jul 11, 2014 11:15 AM
    tmguven tmguven Jul 11, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    Listen to Dragon, Just DO It!

TC
2.65-0.05(-1.85%)Sep 17 4:03 PMEDT