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Zumiez, Inc. Message Board

tngenchek 372 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 minute 36 seconds ago Member since: Sep 3, 2009
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  • According to Hedge Fund Research, the average shorts biased fund has lost 10% a year for the last 4 years and was down another 5% at the end of June this year. I guarantee that's gotten much worse this month.
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    Just think how well they would have done if they put JCP in their short portfolio 4 years ago and closed today.
    They just shorted the wrong stock.

    Like taking candy from a baby !!!

  • Reply to

    I'm hooked on J C Penney!

    by markitvalue Jul 3, 2014 10:46 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek Jul 3, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Maybe you'll be a good little toad and tell these people where all those "new good paying jobs" are.
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    The number of Americans 16 and older who did not participate in the labor force climbed to a record high of 92,120,000 in June, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

    This means that there were 92,120,000 Americans 16 and older who not only did not have a job, but did not actively seek one in the last four weeks.

    That is up 111,000 from the 92,009,000 Americans who were not participating in the labor force in April.

    At no time during the presidencies of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton or George W. Bush, did such a small percentage of the civilian non-institutional population either hold a job or at least actively seek one.

    Before December, the last time the labor force participation rate sank as low as 62.8 percent was in February 1978, when it was also 62.8 percent.

    At that time, Jimmy Carter was president.

  • tngenchek tngenchek May 20, 2014 2:42 PM Flag

    Ullman is gearing up for the long haul and so far he has delivered as promised!
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    Maybe you can tell me exactly when he decided to deliver on his promise to increase the credit line.

    If I remember correctly he STATED that no additional funding would be needed to maintain the 2 BILLION liquidity through the end of the year. And before you make a stupid statement that he hasn't borrowed the money(yet) he IS counting it towards the 2 BILLION.

    And now the only shot he has was by increasing his credit line and EXTENDING the due date.

  • Reply to

    Soros Out

    by messnervan May 19, 2014 1:44 PM
    tngenchek tngenchek May 19, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    Well that just sucks ! We have a bagholder on this board that always says "Follow the big money"; but he's still holding, wonder why he doesn't take his own advise but wants everyone else to take his !!!!

  • Reply to

    Towards the End of the Article

    by messnervan Jul 3, 2014 11:37 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek Jul 3, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    1. Remove pistol from holster
    2. insert bullet or bullets
    3. shoot self in foot until you run out of toes.

  • Reply to

    ttiiiimmmmmmmbbbbberrrrrrrr

    by marketguba May 6, 2014 12:52 PM
    tngenchek tngenchek May 7, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    No, he just looked at a 2 year chart, not a 2 day.

  • Reply to

    Retayl101 is todays featured Laggard.

    by jcpenneyman85 May 9, 2014 8:31 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek May 9, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Retoy; better not post personal info. This guy sounds like an obsessed jilted lover.

  • Reply to

    LOOKING FORWARD TO SAME STORE SALES NUMBERS

    by parisonr May 27, 2014 4:34 PM
    tngenchek tngenchek May 27, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    Effective last quarter JCPenney will pre-announce monthly SSS figures for the entire year. The figures for May are already out. If for any reason they differ from the actual figures, accounting procedures will be changed until they match.

  • Reply to

    What could they be thinking?

    by alloro May 19, 2014 11:01 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek May 19, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    It's called "burning the doors and windows to your house for heat", winter is coming ! I can't believe the number of people that are ignoring the debt load on this company. Last year they borrowed 2 billion(to pay bills) then cheated stock holders out of a billion in dilution(to pay bills) and used some of the previous credit line(to pay bills) and now needed an extended credit line with and extended loan due date(to pay bills). Do they not see a pattern here? If you borrow money to make money, that's a good thing. Borrowing money to pay bills is a bad thing. They only have 1.2 billion in CASH and three quarters to go, even burning cash at half their present rate still leaves them with no money. They can Do Si Do around the issue and call it "Liquidity" but at the end of the day it's just MASSIVE DEBT

  • tngenchek by tngenchek May 15, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    Tell me that bedtime story again; you know, the one where the knight in shining armor rides in on a white horse and rescues JCPenney and they ride off into the land of higher revenues and larger gross margins. My favorite part is where he slays the debt dragon at the very last minute with nothing more than his sword of "hope" and "crossed fingers"

  • Reply to

    Acouple of down days here and...

    by alloro May 28, 2014 11:50 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek May 28, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    They'll be back when it goes up a nickel. Screaming and shouting "Mother of all short squeezes".

    I told them before there would be a rally and the smart longs should sell into it.

    Remember I said "smart longs", kind of an oxymoron. The rest are just bagholders.

  • Reply to

    Traffic up?

    by libocceclub Jun 22, 2014 8:00 PM
    tngenchek tngenchek Jun 26, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    Ok, I'll try to finish that for you............
    "Ullman
    And Record will...." continue to borrow money just to maintain LIQUIDITY"; another name for "paying the utility bills"

  • The old line of credit had terms of LIBOR + 3%

    The new line of credit had terms of LIBOR + 4.75%

    Because they are such a great "turnaround" risk they got the rate lowered to LIBOR +4%

    Bottom line remains, they didn't refinance to get a lower rate; they already had one. They refinanced to borrow more money.

  • Reply to

    Towards the End of the Article

    by messnervan Jul 3, 2014 11:37 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek Jul 6, 2014 7:42 AM Flag

    Boys and girls, can you say "co-conspirators?"

  • Reply to

    Traffic up?

    by libocceclub Jun 22, 2014 8:00 PM
    tngenchek tngenchek Jun 26, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Here's someone looking forward; "The fear is that when it returns to normalcy, the traffic gains it's made will slow again" and that fear is well founded IMO since it's been borne out time and time again, or you can ignore the warning signs at your peril.
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    "A lot of the gains it's made have come as a result of offering big, doorbuster sales and shedding slow-moving inventory at big discounts. Customers may like those promotions, and it is helping traffic, but it continues to hurt margins at a time when iJ.C. Penney needs to be generating cash.

    The fear is that when it returns to normalcy, the traffic gains it's made will slow again, plunging the retailer into financial peril once more at a time when it's got bigger bills to pay.

  • tngenchek tngenchek Jun 26, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    "hop aboard this stock before it takes off, just click here"
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    and you naturally assumed they must mean this "new product" is going to bail out JCPenney at the expense of it's competitors? LMAO

    As supor said, it's comforting to see who's actually on the other side of our trade.

  • Reply to

    Thee I told you so, post. Today's date, 6/27/14

    by markitvalue Jun 27, 2014 6:30 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek Jun 27, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    How much confirmation will it take until the investing public gets on board?
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    Here's three things that would be a big help

    1. Increase in sales without an accounting change to make numbers look better than they are. Compare apples to apples.

    2. Substantial increase in GM, moving closer to their peer group average

    3. Substantial decrease in cash burn, which in itself, will show expense control is moving in the right direction, traffic and conversion is up, and discounting for traffic and sales numbers is getting under control. Come to think of it, this should have been #1.

  • Why Warren Buffett Wouldn't Touch J.C. Penney Stock

    Both our operating and investment experience cause us to conclude that 'turnarounds' seldom turn, and that the same energies and talent are much better employed in a good business purchased at a fair price than in a poor business purchased at a bargain price. -- Warren Buffett, 1980

    CEO Warren Buffett realized that investing in turnarounds was just a waste of energy.

    investors in J.C. Penney would be wise to heed Buffett's wisdom. A large number of "value" investors have piled into J.C. Penney stock in recent months,.......... Yet J.C. Penney remains unprofitable -- and if you believe Warren Buffett, it may never be fixed.

    Buffett would caution that for every successful turnaround story, there are many more turnaround candidates that either limp along or quickly spiral into bankruptcy.

    Despite the sales and margin improvements, J.C. Penney still lost $344 million before taxes on sales of $2.8 billion. That's a double-digit negative profit margin

    Much of J.C. Penney's improvement last quarter can be attributed to its terrible performance the year before. It was simple for J.C. Penney to look good going up against such easy comparisons. However, there's little evidence that J.C. Penney is attracting new fans (as opposed to getting back some of the customers it lost), which bodes ill for its long-term prospects.

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    Well, if Buffett won't buy JCP, maybe Soros will ride to the rescue............................... oooopsie, been there done that !!!

  • Reply to

    Back to School Sale

    by cladthebuc Jul 27, 2014 8:42 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek Jul 27, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    Just wanted to let all the longs know that local Atlanta JCP store was hopping yesterday.
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    It's back to school time, happens every year this time, TGT, M, WMT, KSS are all HOPPING. Hope you didn't base any real investment on your observation.

    I

  • Reply to

    Expect JCP To Raise Guidance.

    by byetwoholed Jul 16, 2014 10:51 AM
    tngenchek tngenchek Jul 16, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    JCP guidance for this quarter was mid single digits, making it 4-6%(?). Last quarter was 6.2% that would have converted to 7.4% making the accounting change worth 1.2%. Adding that 1.2% to the high and low numbers gives a "real" guidance of 5% to 7.2%.

    If you hit the 7.2% watch this soar like an eagle for a few days, with the sheeple forgetting they are working with massaged numbers and proclaiming the "turnaround" is working. Smart/Big money will use this to dump any unwanted shares.

ZUMZ
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