The bright side to the full duration of the trial is that toxicity (a favorite theme of ISIS critics) seems to be a non-issue. That' will be little consolation if efficacy isn't ultimately established, but for now, "thank heaven for small favors."
"Unless, there is a math/data error above, I think FMR is done or about to be done."
Fidelity was not done selling. It's not that you made a mathematical error or that your data was incorrect. It was your assumption that was flawed (even though I got thumbs down for pointing it out at the time.) I do not rejoice in the bad news, and hope Fidelity doesn't know something we don't.
On 6/30/13, Fidelity had 461,529 shares
On 9/30/13, Fidelity had 219, 196 shares (according to data posted at the "whalewisdom" web site)
Total shares sold in 3Q: 242,333
Percent share reduction: 52.5%
AF is having a bad day (not for any reasons pertaining to OGXI.) He stuck his neck out on SRPT (bullish) and VNDA (bearish), and today is his Day of Reckoning. As he defends himself on Twitter, I'm recalling all the times he's mocked and rubbed salt in the wounds of retail investors who have lost money in biotech. Whether the losses were deserved or not, it's bad karma to delight in the misfortune of others. Today is Adam's turn to be humbled.
I'm not sure if your alias directed that comment at me, Dark, so I'll respond. I requested elaboration because, like most of your posts, it was vague and rambling, I'm familiar with the generational differences, safety concerns, and how you've been harping on the subject (to no avail) at the ISIS board (where you've lost all credibility and are a laughing stock.) I just wasn't sure if that's what you were driving at in your post.
Even though 1 thru 4 may not (yet?) have occurred, the bears seem to have baked those ingredients into the cake anyway. The market is a forward-looking pricing mechanism, and the price can reflect the occurrence of events even while they remain on the horizon and may never come to pass.. I listened to the cc, but will continue to fret about interim/final results (and leaks), TEVA's involvement, future dilution via ATM, and whether 011 might be crowded out (like Provenge) by newer anti-androgen therapies. I'll add to that list my opinion that there's a substantial amount of manipulation going on. I can't prove it, and I hesitate to mention it because it's such a hackneyed term, but it appears to me that this stock is being vigorously and relentlessly targeted by professionals.
The dilution may already have occurred via the ATM. No regulatory filing is needed if used, but the subject would come up on the conference call. I was hoping they'd wait for some good news before using it, but the way the price has been dropping, I wouldn't be surprised if management raised some capital now (in case the slide continues.)
That leak theory is scary stuff. There were plenty of other events, however, which coincided with the stock price's multiple legs down:
- Announcement of CFO's departure (along with her severance)
- Announcement of new 427 trials (good news but a use of cash)
- Announcement of ATM facility (necessary but still a dilution)
- Announcement of Xtandi results (uncertainty about changes to prostate cancer landscape)
- Controversial SNTA hsp90 results
In the same time span, the only good news we got was the Needham upgrade. Had the upgrade come from a more credible source, it might have served as an offset.
Then why is he selling the company? And why seek a buyer unless he lacks confidence in the effectiveness of Provenge sequencing? Seems to me that he'd wait to put the company on the auction block if he really believed Provenge sequencing worked and that management was sitting on a gold mine. I see many articles to come about why Provenge never should have been approved and how MG fleeced DNDN shareholders.
Not sure how my post ended up on this board - was meant for the DNDN board. In any case, as far as "your company" is concerned, I shorted it from $5 to the $2s (check my message history), and have since covered because, as revolting as it is to agree with an ignorant fool like you, TNK does seem to have bottomed. Whatever happened to coursonC? You kind of remind me of him.
I hope it affects any future partnering with TEVA. Glad for the funding, but TEVA is one of the reasons that 011 gets no respect (backing from a more respectable pharma would have lent more credibility to the ambiguous Ph II 011 data.) If OGXI doesn't go the rest of the way alone, I hope they at least steer clear of more tie-ups with TEVA.
Darkster, file this one under "aliases who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones":
VICL is going to be a rocket, because VACCINES SAVE THE WORLD and the MMs are picking up cheap shares and AT THESE PRICES I'M BUYING MORE and there is some kind of foreign investor and they wouldn't take it down unless something or other, and you only lose money if you sell the stock because otherwise it's just a paper loss, and something about the price of gold and SOMETHING ABOUT THE PRICE OF ISIS and don't have any stop losses or whatever, and I told you so and MY ALIAS TOLD YOU I TOLD YOU SO and did I mention anything about VICL going to the moon and DID I FORGET TO PUMP VICL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS?
While the stock is limbo, analysts and opinionated journalists (including AF and Seeking Alpha authors) can jerk the price around. That's why I posted my warning about AF's column on SNTA (which I knew someone on this board would misconstrue as bashing or "being short,") Up or down, price fluctuations don't mean much on no news and low volume. Holding through the volatility for trial results.
This might be much ado about nothing (as to OGXI), but AF just trashed SNTA' in his column. Last time SNTA's hsp90 drug disappointed, OGXI tanked in sympathy. I know OGXI isn't developing a hsp90 inhibitor, but bad SNTA news could fuel doubts about OGX-427 or encourage more shortselling.
Provenge doesn't work, and virtually everyone knows it, but kudos to management for going to these (desperate) lengths to try to increase shareholder value.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Nothing of import, but on the radar screen. From his Biotech Mailbag column released today (note: OGXI isn't the only company referenced):
"To select the next test cases for the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule, I ran a screen using BioMedTracker for companies with cancer drugs in phase III studies expected to announce top-line results within the next six months.
"Remember, the F-R Rule tries to predict the outcome of phase III studies of cancer drugs based on the market cap of the company conducting the study four months prior to the expected results.
"Here's what I came up with:
"Oncogenex Pharmaceuticals (OGXI_): The "Synergy" study of custirsen in combination with docetaxel in first-line prostate cancer patients should have survival results ready in mid-2014. That timeline makes Oncogenex a bit early for assessment by the F-R Rule but keep it in mind."
Darkout (you) isn't responsible for anything but some colorful commentary and losing his shirt on VICL. Unlike VICL, OGXI is down on no trial-related news.
Can't believe Darkout has anything left to gamble on VICL with after the reaming he took on his ISIS short. Ouch!!
"One or two CCs ago Scott Cormack cited statistics showing that the number of prostate patients getting chemo has not decreased since Provenge and Zytiga were approved for pre-chemo patients, and the same is likely to be true for Xtandi."
Xtandi seems to be more effective than Zytiga. The question is, how much longer might it defer the need for chemo? I don't think the selloff (or bear raid) is irrational behavior. The market simply hates uncertainty.
"In fact, just as OGXI is testing a combination of 427 and Zytiga in pre-chemo patients ..."
Synergy between 427 and Zytiga would be great as it could create a halo effect - implying synergy with Xtandi.
".. , it's possible that it and Teva could test a combination of 011 and Xtandi for the same population because 011 has been shown to synergize with Xtandi preclinically (see OGXI's presentation at ASCO in 2011 or 2012)."
That would take time and money, neither of which would help the stock price any time soon.
Since I've never been an avid believer in 011, today's news didn't shake me out or change my initial investment thesis. Nevertheless, despite Xtandi's potential to dominate the pre-chemo prostate cancer space in the foreseeable future, I believe good news about 011 would still significantly boost OGXI's share price by validating OGXI's pipeline the same way Kynamro turned ISIS around despite the treatment's limited market potential - assuming that, as has already been noted, not too much dilution happens along the way.