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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

to200andbeyond 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 27, 2014 3:14 PM Member since: Dec 13, 2002
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  • to200andbeyond by to200andbeyond Jun 27, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    Financing is announced on Monday?
    Will the price soar of a dollar? $1.20? $1.30? $1.50?

    Would a few shorts run for cover knowing that whoever is backing this company is serious about seeing them succeed?

    Let's say they get 40 to 60 Mil and issue year 2020 warrants at a price of 75c but an early buyback price of $1.
    Would the price of the warrants cause you to dump your shares at 75 cents?

    Creative financing happens all the time and the top investors here aren't going to let Metabolix fall flat as long as their IP still has value. Worst case scenario the company is sold for the value of it's IP... The work they've done in PVC is probably worth more than the current market cap!

  • to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Jun 27, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    End of June is not as dire as some think. Here is part of what was said during the CC: “You’ll recall that our financing plan is to raise to $50 million to $60 million over the next 12 to 15 months. To that end, we’re looking at a variety of different structures ranging from smaller staged financings to larger, more comprehensive solutions. While we’re not in the position today to say how this will all play out, what we do know is that we intend to complete at least the first phase of our financing by the end of June… Based on our current plans and projections, which remain subject to numerous uncertainties, we intend to raise $50 million to $60 million over the next 12 to 15 months… Failure to receive additional funding by the end of June 2014 will force us to delay, scale back or otherwise modify our business, operating plans, and/or pursue strategic alternatives… here’s a lot of activity around the financing, and we are talking to a bunch of different people about a variety of different structures. The focus has really been about the long term business plan and making sure that we’re securing the capital that we need to execute it. And we’re focused specifically on counterparties who share that interest… I would say that our plan to complete at least the first phase of financing by the end of June and we would expect to have a full set of information for investors about what that financing looks like when we announce it. And to complete it by the end of June, it means we’d have to announce it by the end of June.”

    Okay so failure will lead to delay, scale back, business mods or strategic alternatives… The last one there could interest short term traders because a sale of the company would probably return at least 2x from today’s price and possibly much more. In spite of what the shorts want you to think, The IP here has significant value. Shopping the company for a buyer that knows how to unlock value could result in a bidding war

  • Reply to

    Huge BREAK through $34.10

    by ramimd May 29, 2014 11:29 AM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond May 29, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    Charts show a gap back to $39 that needs to be filled. After that momo could take this much higher. IMHO, it is a very bad time to be short; it would be much better to cover here (in the low thirties) and wait for the train to take a pause before loading up new passengers.

    Speaking of gaps, if momo takes over and investors start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel then there is another gap up to $65 that could eventually fill (perhaps this year's Christmas gift, eh?)

    Time will tell...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    About $8 trillion is benchmarked to...

    by rumorwhisperorbuzz May 27, 2014 12:03 PM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond May 29, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    The addition to the index brings hundreds of new funds that will need to own a little Twitter. Along with that come many researches who will want their shiny new investment to go up. Give it time, the recovery has just started; there's a gap to nearly $39 that needs and wants to be filled. If you are short then expect pain. Twitter is gaining momentum back in the positive direction. You can either stand in front of a train or you can get out of the way OR you can climb aboard and enjoy the ride.

    I expect we'll see high $40's before we see $30 again. If you must be short hopefully you are short at a much higher price. I'd hate to see anyone get run over and lose their shirt.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    About $8 trillion is benchmarked to...

    by rumorwhisperorbuzz May 27, 2014 12:03 PM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond May 28, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    You think recent upgrades aren't related to the upcoming series of buys

    The addition to the index is the beginning of the end for recent shorts

    See you at $40 and beyond...

    Much sooner than anyone here suspects

    May all your dreams come true :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    About $8 trillion is benchmarked to...

    by rumorwhisperorbuzz May 27, 2014 12:03 PM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond May 27, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Twitter has done an deal with ad agency holding company Omnicom that will bring it $230 million in revenue over the next two years according to the Wall Street Journal.

    The deal is an indicator that advertisers are really starting to take Twitter seriously as a big media vendor.

    LOL, and one more reason to buy for the long term..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    About $8 trillion is benchmarked to...

    by rumorwhisperorbuzz May 27, 2014 12:03 PM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond May 27, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    LOL, nice negative spin on a long term positive event

    I agree that there's a trade to be had here but longer term... Buy low, sell high

    Twitter down here is a gift

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Have you ever seen such a chart.?

    by vanmusicblues May 21, 2014 5:48 PM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond May 21, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    Yes, it happened when Facebook dropped to near $20 soon after their IPO lockup ended...
    Made a lot buying that one...

    I also happened when the Google IPO lockup ended...
    Darn it, I missed that one...

    History repeats with many of the biggest names
    Ready to buy this one...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Facebook should buy Yelp

    by to200andbeyond Apr 28, 2014 2:11 PM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Apr 28, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    There are few that would be a perfect fit and Facebook is definitely one of them. They could easily pay 2x or more for Yelp and I wouldn't be surprised to see them make an offer for a lot more than that. The company is growing world wide and their new ties to Yahoo only expands that opportunity. I wouldn't buy Yelp for the buyout potential but it does limit the downside. The company is synonymous with certain types of searches in the same way that Google is. IMHO, it is a good fit for any social media company.

  • to200andbeyond by to200andbeyond Apr 28, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    It's one of those services that everyone knows and many use in spite of an occasional issue... The two would be an excellent fit and FB has shown an interest in owning companies that fit well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    great time to buy

    by byecell Mar 13, 2014 12:00 AM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Mar 28, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Don't forget the following: "The 2014 FIFA World Cup will be the 20th FIFA World Cup, an international men's football tournament, that is scheduled to take place in Brazil from 12 June to 13 July 2014"

    I expect that Arco will ramp up as the entire world looks for ways to profit from this year's world cup. If I were short I would certainly cover before the end of April then probably get back in during the height of the tournament. If I wanted to go long then I'd probably get in now before the talking heads on TV start to hype everything related to Brazil.

  • to200andbeyond by to200andbeyond Feb 21, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    The folks at Metabolix like to talk about their product but they really should focus on how it can improve the 3D printing market! There are a lot of people producing a lot more plastic products yet many don't realize that their is a sustainable biodegradable option. Metabolix should move in and take control of that space. The following says nothing that catches many eyes; they really should be partnering with 3D Systems or Stratasys or ExOne or any of the big 3D printer companies:
    -------
    Metabolix has developed new amorphous PHA biopolymers with the physical characteristics of a low Tg rubber. These new rubber modifiers have been shown to improve the ductility and flexibility of PLA, while also retaining clarity and compostability. In PLA extrusion applications, MirelTM rubber modifiers lower stiffness and brittleness and improve tactile feel. In PLA film applications these rubber modifiers also increase tear resistance. PHA and PLA biopolymers are both biobased and compostable, making them attractive for sustainability and performance-driven business opportunities.

    "Metabolix continues to make great progress in the use of our core PHA technology as a performance-driven modifier in applications where improved performance of both biobased and conventional polymers such as PLA and PVC is desired," said Joseph Shaulson, president and CEO of Metabolix. "In this case, Mirel rubber modifiers have the potential to expand the application space for PLA which may lead to new business opportunities."

    "These innovative Mirel rubber modifiers are an exciting extension to the Metabolix PHA technology platform. Their capability to modify and improve PLA demonstrates performance that is comparable to traditional non-renewable rubber modifiers without compromising the renewable nature of PLA or key features of clarity and compostability," added Bob Engle, vice president, biopolymers of Metabolix. "We look forward to presenting our new biobased rubber modifiers...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    volume

    by ready788 Feb 10, 2014 3:31 PM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Feb 10, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    Ready, when is the next conference call? It should be the first with the new CEO so it will be interesting to hear what he has to say about current sales, future sales, financing and partnerships. This company was in real need of new blood and fresh talent, and they finally got it! We now have something to look forward to instead of the smoke and mirrors that Eno presented. I imagine that it will take awhile to turn the ship around yet it will be very interesting to learn anything about the new course it's on. This should be Metabolix's year to shine; hopefully a big turn around for longs and the end of the big short.

  • to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Dec 26, 2013 6:03 PM Flag

    Good questions... This is why they should partner with one of the big printer companies (like 3D Systems Corp DDD) and use their deep pockets to own the space. Metabolix has the patents but they don't have the financial savvy and until the new CEO they didn't have the charisma to open new doors... Let's hope that the new CEO has the leadership skills to take this to $2.00 and beyond!!! Blowing out the doors in 2014!!!

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by normey Dec 26, 2013 10:04 AM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Dec 26, 2013 5:55 PM Flag

    I've seen ideas floated here for partnering with one of the 3D print companies to make a new high quality biodegradable print material. IMHO, that is worthy of investigation and a partnership there could lead to much more.

    Anyone here in the construction industry? Does Metabolix's latest ventures into PVC interest you at all? Does it sound like they have something big on their hands or just another novelty that will go the way of biodegradable beach toys?

    The short count here is intriguing... Any positive development and this company could double overnight. If it's a long term commitment with one of the 3D printer companies or a large construction firm and it could triple within a week. The potential for a nasty squeeze exists here and perhaps the new CEO will figure a way to help make that happen.

    I imagine that the recent drop has a bit to do with end of the year tax loss selling... With so many gains out there why not take a few losses where you can. It will be very interesting to see if there is a bounce right after the start of the year (or within the first 30 days for those who worry about wash rules).

    Here's to $2 and beyond!!!
    May it happen much sooner than you expect '-)

  • to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Dec 13, 2013 12:33 PM Flag

    Here are a few related paragraphs about that agreement:

    Limited Exemption

    The Schuler Agreement provides that if the Schuler Stockholders’ beneficial ownership of Common Stock at any time equals or exceeds 15% of the then outstanding shares of Common Stock and either they hold the shares with the purpose or effect of changing or influencing the control of the Company or in connection with a transaction having that purpose or effect (“Control Intent”) or ... then the Exemption will immediately terminate and they will immediately become Acquiring Persons under the Rights Agreement... If the Schuler Stockholders’ beneficial ownership of Common Stock at any time equals or exceeds 20% of the then outstanding shares of Common Stock, the Exemption will immediately terminate and the Schuler Stockholders will immediately become Acquiring Persons under the Rights Agreement.

    Support Arrangements

    The Schuler Agreement provides that during the period commencing on the date the Schuler Stockholders’ aggregate beneficial ownership first equals or exceeds 15% of the then outstanding shares of Common Stock and ending upon the termination of the Exemption (other than a termination resulting from a Schuler Stockholder becoming an Acquiring Person) (the “Support Period”), the Schuler Stockholders shall cause the shares of Common Stock beneficially owned by them and/or their respective affiliates or associates: to be present for quorum purposes for any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company and to be voted in accordance with the recommendation of the board of directors of the Company at any such meeting or in connection with any written consent of the Company’s stockholders. In order to facilitate the foregoing, the Schuler Stockholders agreed to deliver executed proxies to the Company at least seven days prior to the date of any such stockholder meeting.

  • to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Dec 13, 2013 12:20 PM Flag

    ready, you appear curious about the schuler agreement and his status relative to metabolix but I suspect you have the same problem interpreting legal mumbo jumbo that the rest of us do. That’s okay, I’ve never found a legal contract that didn’t bore me to death before the end of the first paragraph.

    When the schuler agreement was released I tried several times to determine what it meant and basically concluded the following (although I’d have to go back to the agreement to get the correct legal terms and I’m not about to do that again).

    Companies do everything they can to limit an individual’s ability to control a majority percentage of a company without explicit board approval. In Metabolix’s case, if an individual exceeds a certain threshold then something kicks in that limits their ability to vote their own shares (releasing their voting rights to the board). I believe that the schuler agreement extended jack’s limit up to 15% but gave him the right to purchase up to 20%. He currently owns his limit (plus or minus a few shares) without falling into the special category that would require him to give up his votes to the board.

    Keep in mind that jack is over invested here, he already owns nearly 15% of the company, and dollar cost averaging down near $1 would be a great thing for him to do if he could but giving up ones right to vote isn’t worth it. If another company comes through with a great bid for Metabolix and the board doesn’t want to take their offer than jack’s voice may be the only sizable one that speaks independently for the rest us. As long as he doesn’t exceed the 15% cap then he has the ability to be an activist for change. I don’t want to see him give that up!

    Personally, I’d like to see the board give him the rights to purchase up to another 5% without effecting his current status. I’d also like to see them invite him to a seat at the table. Jack’s presence either on the board or through additional purchases would be a very good sign.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    back to $1?

    by ready788 Dec 10, 2013 10:09 AM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Dec 11, 2013 4:08 PM Flag

    Re: "Shorts have to think twice when a person with real inside information spends another hundred thousand scooping up more shares :)"

    I'm sure that the rest of the insiders are hoping that it gets back near $1 so they can scoop up some cheap shares too!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    4,027,510 shares short on NASDAQ on 11/29/2013

    by casinomarket Dec 10, 2013 7:37 PM
    to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Dec 11, 2013 2:23 AM Flag

    Shorts have to think twice when a person with real inside information spends another hundred thousand scooping up more shares :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • to200andbeyond to200andbeyond Dec 5, 2013 9:43 PM Flag

    Here's to $2.00 and Beyond... May it happen much sooner than you expect '-)

    Strobecks buys aren't what pumped up the stock last year and they haven't in the past; they simply tell long term investors that this stock is still worth holding and that now is a good time to dollar cost average. Unfortunately, most of the real long term investors have been there and done that so many times that few are 'ready' to add another dime here. The jolt that we saw last November wasn't because Strobeck made a similar purchase; it happened because many employees made a similar purchase. Of course, we know how that worked out for them; Antibioticos surprised many by discontinuing salaries and shutter much of their plant (it wasn't pretty).

    I'm a believer in their patents and their intellectual property so I'm here for the long term. I highly suspect that if management decided to give up they could sell their IP for at least $2 per share... Until then they are going to keep trying to make this work. In the ideal case they would find a big American partner to produce product for the 3D space or to manufacture specialized PVC for the construction market. Both of those product lines have the potential to turn this back into a ten dollar stock and beyond... Personally I wish we could count on government to force manufacturers to deliver at least 25% of their products in biodegradable sustainable plastics. It would be nice to know that the sea of plastic floating in our oceans is an issue worth solving; Metabolix clearly has the solution for preventing it growth but no one is ready to support their solution.

    I truly like the idea of going after the 3D market and partnering with one of the leaders.

    Please make it so.....

    Sentiment: Hold

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