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Melco Crown Entertainment Limited Message Board

toast22342000 942 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Oct 25, 2005
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  • Reply to

    w/e reading for nitwits

    by toast22342000 21 hours ago
    toast22342000 toast22342000 21 hours ago Flag

    One more thing, this time about Schweizer's writing style. Using open ended questions to imply wrongdoing does not prove wrongdoing. For example, if I ask the question, "do members of the nitwit cabal diddle themselves while writing stupid posts," it in no way proves they do.
    Schweizer's accusations centering around the sale of US uranium mines are based on exactly the same kind of innuendo. The deal’s approval was the result of an extensive inter-agency process that required the assent of at least nine different officials and agencies. A former State Department official who participated in the deal’s approval has said that Clinton did not weigh in on the uranium sale one way or the other, and her campaign calls the allegations in the book “absurd conspiracy theories.”

    But that doesn't enter the calculus for nitwits intent on character assassination of Clinton even in the absence of any hard evidence? No. Right wing media knows the standard of proof is zero in getting its audience to take everything it says as gospel because the track record of such is so strong.

  • Twenty-Plus Errors, Fabrications, And Distortions In Peter Schweizer's Clinton Cash

  • Reply to

    can one of you nitwits explain

    by toast22342000 May 1, 2015 12:21 AM
    toast22342000 toast22342000 22 hours ago Flag

    You can't possibly be saying you have no problem with donors being anonymous, can you? The only thing worse than unlimited amounts of money being donated is not knowing where it comes from.

  • Reply to

    can one of you nitwits explain

    by toast22342000 May 1, 2015 12:21 AM
    toast22342000 toast22342000 23 hours ago Flag

    Just once I'd like to see a nitwit cabal member not write a reflexive response and think for a moment. The obvious point, which somehow eluded the cabal's notice again, is that ALL the dark money coming from ALL sources from BOTH sides of the spectrum has a corrupting effect on politicians. You just can't whine about the as yet unsubstantiated allegations that the Clinton's were involved in a pay for play scheme to support their charitable foundation while championing the billions of undisclosed dollars flooding in to campaigns from the enormous loopholes created by Citizens United.

  • "China Mobile Is A Game Changer For Apple" from SA. Basically it trys to quantify the sales opportunity of the iPhone series phones in China. The more the tier 1 phones (iPhone--Galaxy S6) become the preferred phones there, implying the same thing might happen in other emerging market countries, the more it plays in to SWKS higher margin profile for those phones.

  • The Q1 guide is for 220-250 MW's, 75-90 sold, 145-160 retained. That is opposed to the full year guide of 2,200 MW's, or 550 per quarter, so clearly the guide is back half loaded. The nature of the devco biz is things are lumpy Q to Q with the more important metric being the size of backlog and how fast it is growing. In that regard, at the devco level, I don't see things changing too much from the CMD since it wasn't very long ago but a bump to the FY guide to show they still have momentum would be helpful. The Atlantic asset acquisition, for SUNE, is more about how it effects TERP's divi. We know the projection is for $44M in CAFD but we won't know what that implies for the dividend until TERP announces the pricing for the next offering or updates their divi guidance. Something I hope they do when they report for Q1.
    As I've mentioned a number of times I am hopeful the breakout of the financials on project drops to TERP, promised for this and future reports, will help the street understand the cash flow generating ability of the devco. Something the street has missed completely up to now.
    Getting back to TERP's divi, I think this is where the focus should be.........all else equal. I'm sure they aren't going to steal Domenech's thunder if an updated guide is forthcoming but IMO this is where the juice lies. A guide update re-emphasizes the pace at which the divi is growing and thus the speed at which they get to the high split of the IDR's.
    Another biggie could be granularity on the upcoming EM yieldco. When it is coming and most importantly the size of the portfolio and thus how large the divi will be. I don't expect the divi to start out as high as TERP's nor do I think the STATED pipeline/call rights list will be as big. However, the stuff that won't be counted as backlog, like the 10 GW's of MOU's in India makes the opportunity breathtaking.

  • Reply to


    by cortisone2 May 2, 2015 2:39 AM
    toast22342000 toast22342000 May 2, 2015 8:50 AM Flag

    Good question. Since you are long I assume you have listened to the conference call or read the transcript so you know just how positive management is about the state of their business. The "firing on all cylinders" cliche is an apt description. It's true, margins won't go up forever. But they will until they likely get to the low 50's% range which is around 4% higher than they are now. That's a lot. Potential catalysts include a divi raise (which may be baked in since it is so obvious FCF can easily support it) with the real kicker being M&A.
    To answer the question, it depends on what you are looking for. To me there is a lot to said for the relative safety of owning a stock with growth that comes as close as you can get to guaranteed. Maybe it comes down to where you think the multiple goes. Because the added earnings are coming, that's a virtual lock. Unfortunately SWKS is in a sector with extremely conservative p/e's so it is not going to get the multiple it deserves, like 25x forward EPS. So if we assume the best multiple it is going to get is around 20x, and you feel as I do that their $7 EPS stated goal comes some time in 2017, then you're looking at about a $42 gain over the course of a couple of years. The X factor is M&A which could change the math considerably or marginally depending on the type of deal. If a 40% gain, with potential upside, in that timeframe is good enough you hold on. If it isn't you pick your spot and move on.

  • toast22342000 toast22342000 May 1, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    You mean I can get it legally now (wink).

  • "But others are less convinced, with Equal-Weight ratings on SkyWorks maintained Friday by both Harsh Kumar of Stephens as well as Barclay's Blayne Curtis.

    SkyWorks pricing and margins "may reset more in line with other mobile suppliers" within a couple of years as the supplier base expands, Curtis said."

    This clown maintains an "equal weight" because he thinks margins will decline in TWO YEARS. I sometimes wonder how a few of these guys got the positions they are in.

  • toast22342000 toast22342000 May 1, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Merrimac, up by Haverhill. But I live in CO now.

  • toast22342000 toast22342000 May 1, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    Very much appreciated. We MA guys need to stick together.

  • Reply to

    Eric Garner

    by toast22342000 May 1, 2015 2:00 PM
    toast22342000 toast22342000 May 1, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    For years, Baltimore City police have grappled with excessive force complaints. Now an exhaustive Baltimore Sun investigation revealed more than 100 people have won settlements and judgments that, along with legal fees, cost city taxpayers $11.5 million over the past four years.
    Victims include a pregnant accountant, a woman selling church raffle tickets, a deacon, an 87-year-old grandmother and another grandmother, Barbara Floyd. The city paid her $30,000. She said she was trying to get her grandson into her house when officers claimed she was interfering with his arrest.

  • toast22342000 by toast22342000 May 1, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    I see there is a Barron's article on NXPI on its Yahoo page only available to subscribers. If someone has a subscription could you post the text on this board? Thank you.

  • toast22342000 by toast22342000 May 1, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    For the sake of the nation I certainly hope the Freddie Gray case doesn't end up to be the sham of justice the Garner case was. At some point we all need to see it is possible for the system to work to not only expose the criminal behavior of a disturbing number of the boys in blue but to hold them responsible for their actions.

  • Reply to

    can one of you nitwits explain

    by toast22342000 May 1, 2015 12:21 AM
    toast22342000 toast22342000 May 1, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    I'll ignore the usual baseless, ad hominem attack and just ask that you, for once, support anything you said with something other than drivel.
    However, we do agree Shrub's mug won't be joining the heads at Rushmore. Though it may appear on a Wanted poster outside the Hague.

  • toast22342000 by toast22342000 May 1, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    "Credit Suisse had a Neutral rating for First Solar with a price target of $70. According to the brokerage firm:

    Revenue miss – timing related, not structural: First Solar experienced a confluence of issues outside their control for three projects, including permitting delays, environmental delays (150 MW Tenaska plant in California experienced a delay owing to concerns over the flat-tailed horned lizard), and module shipment delays owing to the west coast port shut-down. The 32 MW Lost Hills project was partially sold in the second quarter (51% stake sold to Southern Company).

    Credit Suisse also noted that:

    During the quarter the company experienced three project delays (issues cited of environmental permitting and port-shutdown) resulting in a miss of $131 million relative to guidance of $550 million to $650 million, and pushed gross margins down to 8.3% given under absorption and higher mix of modules vs 30.6% of margins in the fourth quarter (due to sale of a 150 MW project)."

    Like I said, the projects business is prone to lumpy results due to unreliable completion dates. This is a dump that should be bought.

  • toast22342000 by toast22342000 May 1, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    From Barron's......John Vinh, Pacific Crest Securities: Reiterates an Overweight rating, and a $110 price target. ” SWKS confirmed that its SkyOne Ultra front-end module has been designed into Samsung’s GS6. We believe the company’s content increased by $1 in the GS6 vs. the GS5. In conjunction with increased content on 4G smartphones, we believe this helped more than offset weakness in the China smartphone market, which was down in CQ1. SWKS still sees a strong ramp of 4G smartphones in China and estimates units growing from 100 million in 2014 to the range of 225 million to 250 million in 2015.” Vinh raises his 2015 estimates to $3.25 billion in revenue and $5.15 in EPS from a prior $3.2 billion and $4.92.

    From IBD....Pacific Crest Securities analyst John Vinh, in a research report Friday, cited as good signs the fact that Skyworks Solutions confirmed that global No. 1 smartphone maker Samsung would use Skyworks' SkyOne Ultra module in the Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge smartphones, and also the fact that Skyworks said more of its chips were being used for 4G smartphones. Gross profit margins also beat expectations, he said, pointing out that the company forecasts higher margins for the current quarter.
    That, Vinh said, offset weakness in the smartphone market in China. He reiterated his overweight rating on Skyworks stock and a price target of 100.

  • toast22342000 toast22342000 May 1, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    I think you will do well holding NXPI. I might even join you. They have great diversification across the wide spectrum of growing markets. But what I liked about SWKS' call, of the things, was the mention that they are growing "broad markets" at a 27% clip.........following that comment by saying nobody in the semi biz can match that.

    I think that is about their ability to gain share with integrated solutions that satisfy a number of OEM needs by using a single supplier, namely SWKS.

  • ....and we are increasing our contracted volumes for next year. We expect to ship between 2.6 to 2.8 gigawatts for the year, including shipments to self-developed projects. In the first quarter, we have shipped 690 megawatts, a new record for a single quarter.

    We are encouraged by the continuing bookings momentum, as highlighted on slide 6. Total bookings for the first quarter of 2015 were 422 megawatts DC against shipments of 690 megawatts DC. In the month of April, we have booked an additional 483 megawatts."

    If you're in the projects biz results can be lumpy due to unforeseen completion delays. Seems to me retail is still skeptical about the yieldco even though the stock was bid up when it was announced. Folks are going to have to get used to seeing FSLR deferring immediate gains from the sale of projects for the long term value created by cash flows coming from operational assets. It is no accident all the major solar companies are creating yieldco's. They understand they need to in order to compete with SunEdison who will be launching yieldco #2 this summer for emerging market assets.

  • Reply to

    Very Nice day

    by dividendseeker May 1, 2015 9:51 AM
    toast22342000 toast22342000 May 1, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    I put in what I thought was a low ball bid for the Aug. 21, $95 calls before the open and to my surprise got filled. Already up $1 on 50 contracts. I'm going to spend some time on NXPI but from a risk/reward basis, from an execution standpoint, from a dominant position in their addressable markets perspective, I like SWKS.

20.75+0.33(+1.64%)May 1 4:00 PMEDT