Hopefully you didn't buy on margin and can hold long enough for the inevitable rebound once it begins to trade according to earnings growth again.
Google that and you will find an article at CNBC. Actually there are a few articles on China's economy there that go in to some interesting detail about money supply, loan growth, and the state of the economy. They all pretty much hit on themes talked about quite a bit. Namely, the government's desire to slow credit growth is working, it will have short term implications for the economy (see slowdown), but all of what is happening will be healthy for the long term, and growth targets will not be missed by much. We all understand this is going to hit VIP more than mass, which may be happening now if early April results hold true. As far as MPEL's stock goes, holders don't seem to care about the growth coming in the next few years. They are seeing GGR growth slow and are bailing out. How much lower will it go after already being down well over 20%? It's anybody's guess if it breaks below the 200 dma and it looks like it will. IMO the correction is already overdone based on forward earnings but the selling momentum is still strong. The market already knows Q1 was strong and that clearly couldn't matter less at this point. David Bain from Sterne Agee hinted they might put a buyback in place soon. If they announce one on the Q1 call that could stop the bleeding.
We will have to see how things play out but I don't know that two weeks of a month indicate a sustainable trend. A few analysts have predicted things would be choppy in Q2 for a number of reasons. Not many if any at all have reduced their annual GGR growth rate estimates, the consensus of which are probably in the mid to lower teens.
Boiled down to its simplest form this is a story of a nitwit freeloader who doesn't want to pay his taxes. The kind of law breaker nitwits would normally rail against. Predictably, however, right wing media, right wing pols, and quite a few anti-government nitwits have come to his defense. I think it's the kind of outrageous hypocrisy you have to be outside of the nitwit bubble to comprehend in terms of its depth.
And that is the real story here. Not that a cranky old rancher has come up with a nutty rationale for not paying the fees he owes. The story is the mentality of the folks who have rallied around Cliven. The same people who expend endless amounts of energy, like the nitwits on this board, spewing on and on about the "takers." The law and order crowd who want laws enforced, unless the guy on the wrong side of the law is an old, white, windbag getting the "free cheese."
Management is shifting tables from the segment with slower growth in to the one that is surging, has been doing it for a while, and the street rewards it by slamming it 23%, which is more than the other casino stocks. I'd understand this a whole lot better if MPEL was the most expensive stock in the sector based on forward earnings, but it has been and still is by far the cheapest.
Agreed. However, as today's fade after JPM's Q1 revisions hit the wire show the market is saying "we hear you on the Q1 numbers, the fine YoY growth, the infrastructure, the new casinos, the 40%+ EBITDA increase in 2015, and we are going to sell anyway." The street is addicted to seeing Macau exceed expectations and gets downright cranky when it doesn't.
Long term revenue catalysts are undeniable but right now the market seems to be more interested in over reacting to the weekly GGR numbers, in both directions.
BERLIN — The countries of the world have dragged their feet so long on global warming that the situation is now critical, experts appointed by the United Nations reported Sunday, and only an intensive worldwide push over the next 15 years can stave off potentially disastrous climatic changes later in the century.
It remains technically possible to keep planetary warming to a tolerable level, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found, according to a report unveiled here. But even in parts of the world like Europe that have tried hardest, governments are still a long way from taking the steps that are sufficient to do the job, the experts found.
“We cannot afford to lose another decade,” said Ottmar Edenhofer, a German economist and co-chairman of the committee that wrote the report. “If we lose another decade, it becomes extremely costly to achieve climate stabilization.”
The report is likely to increase the pressure to secure an ambitious new global climate treaty that is supposed to be completed in late 2015 and take effect in 2020. But the divisions between wealthy countries and poorer countries that are making such a treaty difficult, and have long bedeviled international climate talks, were on display yet again in Berlin.
You make it sound, by saying "record shattering highs," that the market is undeserving of where it is. Yet by historical measures it is not over valued. What has been going on is more about portfolio repositioning than it is about a reaction to economic news. Because if it were reacting to the latter it would be going higher. It is unequivocally correct to say nothing real, to date, comes close to justifying the mark down in MPEL shares. New casino openings are still on schedule/on budget, nothing happening in China suggests more than a modest decline in GGR, mass play is still going higher, mass visitation is still being positively effected by both secular trends in wealth creation and a transportation build out, higher mass play is causing margin expansion, yada, yada, yada, you know the drill. At $35.40 the stock is tremendously cheap based on very predictable forward earnings. I know you have mentioned being concerned about the lack of certainty in what the future holds. While there is validity in that view it can also be used as a rationale to never buy any stock since nobody has a crystal ball. But only events of great significance can disrupt the growth trends unfolding in Macau. So unless you think the Chinese economy is going to fall off a cliff or something else catastrophic is going to happen buying MPEL at these prices is as safe a bet as you can make in equities considering the level of certainty of revenue growth.
thinking about what would happen to the stock if something materially bad for earnings were to actually happen. Cuz consensus earnings just went UP for 2014-15 ($1.76/$2.13 respectively) with the release of Sterne Agee's report detailing EBITDA run rates for COD Macau, COD Manila, and MSC Macau.
Just when you thought the last of the knee jerk, reactionary selling was over and the stock was going to trade according to past, present, and future earnings it gets slammed again.
I like what drjack wrote yesterday..........."Sterne Agee has YoY EPS, 2014-15, growing at 26% yet the stock trades at 17.4x 2015 earnings estimates."
Now make that 16.7X. How many dividend paying stocks are out there selling at that multiple looking at 20-26% growth over the next 20 months? Plus they are apparently considering a buyback program.
BTW, 2015's estimates only include about 6 months of operations for MSC Macau, then in 2016 Tower 5 opens while COD Manila continues to ramp.
Sands China was up 6%, pretty much all of which happened after the announcement. Seems like the expectation is for multiple expansion due to demand from another group of investors.
If this were a tech stock with those kinds of growth metrics the stock would trade for 40x earnings.
The market has ignored the analyst's remarks during the decline and I hope it does this time too. I love being a buyer down here.
But because public sector jobs have been reduced by 1/2 million and population growth has created more people looking for work the unemployment rate is still too high. Something the Repubs have tried very hard to maintain as they see high unemployment as a political benefit rather than a national problem to be solved.
And because the labor market still has a lot of slack wage growth has stagnated. Another condition the Repubs have contributed to, and like, since it motivates their donor base to reward the GOP for keeping corporate profits high.
The problem being the analysts are speaking a language investors do not care about at the moment. They are talking about great growth from existing casinos, regional expansion leading to higher growth, and more expansion in Macau leading to.......you guessed it..........still higher growth. All at a very reasonable valuation. Investors hear that and say "what do I care" and sell anyway. The herd is the herd, the fact that it is being illogcal, running in the wrong direction, doesn't mean it will come to its senses any time soon. It means it will keep running the wrong way until it exhausts itself.
The Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp, the gaming regulator, has again warned Kazuo Okada that failure to comply with the country’s law on foreign ownership and the outcome of a bribery investigation could prevent his company from opening a casino-resort in Manila next year.
GamblingCompliance reports that PAGCOR chairman Cristino Naguiat gave the warning after the collapse of an investment arrangement by Mr Okada’s Universal Entertainment Corp and Philippine company Century Properties Group that was meant to comply with the law on foreign ownership.
GamblingCompliance quotes Mr Naguiat as telling Philippine news media: “They cannot open the casino unless they have addressed all issues such as the allegations of bribery and the land ownership requirement.”
Criminal investigators in the Philippines are following up allegations of bribery and violations of the anti-dummy law by Mr Okada.
WASHINGTON — President Obama's healthcare law, despite a rocky rollout and determined opposition from critics, already has spurred the largest expansion in health coverage in America in half a century, national surveys and enrollment data show.
As the law's initial enrollment period closes, at least 9.5 million previously uninsured people have gained coverage. Some have done so through marketplaces created by the law, some through other private insurance and others through Medicaid, which has expanded under the law in about half the states.
The tally draws from a review of state and federal enrollment reports, surveys and interviews with insurance executives and government officials nationwide.
Did you see the follow up interview with the analyst? He gave a pretty good perspective on why the stocks have been struggling. But here is what I don't get. I would understand why all the Macau stocks and MPEL in particular have come down if the valuations had gotten rich like some of the other stocks in the market being sold. Stocks with really high multiples. The gaming stocks don't have high multiples. I read drjack's post from yesterday about 2015 earnings. MPEL sells for 16x estimated 2015 eps which could be 43% higher than 2014's estimated eps. That is enormous growth. Somehow the gaming stocks have been erroneously lumped in with high p/e stocks, a big mistake.