Once the First Wind deal closes the divi is going to get raised to $0.325 per quarter or $1.30 according to the post acquisition presentation. From there, not inclusive of other deals, the divi is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24% per anum.
The non-GAAP discussion (this isn't my first rodeo) was really just a way to bring up the notion that despite SWKS' impressive stock performance it is still cheap on all the meaningful metrics, including a multiple of EBITDA. But thanks for the input.
If you read thru SWKS' Q4 reconciliation you'll see that the difference between the two, which is the case in most all reporting scenarios, is non-GAAP numbers are not inclusive of what are considered non-recurring expenses like restructuring charges, acquisition expenses, stock based compensation, etc. Basically non-GAAP figures are clean in terms of what the results from operations were and therefore, IMO, what the multiple should be based on.
Trailing non-GAAP EPS is $3.24, putting the trailing multiple at 22.6x.
The forward consensus estimate for fiscal 2015 is $4.51, up from $4.08 sixty days ago. Folks, that's a whopping 39% YoY increase.
In reading thru the numerous published analyst comments from the last few weeks as well as taking in to consideration management's remarks from the recent industry conference presentations (unfortunately no longer available at SWKS' site) it seems visibility is very good for 2015. China is in the midst of 4G upgrade cycle, Apple phone sales are robust, the IOT is growing rapidly, mobile is "the" thing, all of which is leading to revenue growth coupled with margin expansion.
As I wrote in an earlier post semi's typically receive a conservative forward multiple because of the tendency for the sector to experience boom-bust cycles. I am far from an expert but recent comments I've read suggest those cycles are evening out. And even if they aren't the semis are clearly in a boom cycle at the moment with SWKS's product line being in especially high demand.
So, with the rate at which EPS is estimated to grow (54% CAGR from 2014-16) is it unreasonable to say the stock deserves continued multiple expansion to around 25x trailing EPS? That may be high from a historical perspective but 54% CAGR (which COULD prove to be conservative) is just plain stunning for a company with this kind of revenue base.
A Baltimore Fox affiliate apologized Monday night for a report it ran over the weekend that deceptively edited protesters to look like they were chanting "kill a cop."
Gawker originally caught WBFF chopping up footage of a protest chant to sound like incitement to murder police on Monday.
The chant went "we won't stop, we can't stop, 'til killer cops, are in cell blocks," according to C-SPAN footage.
But WBFF cut the audio short and told viewers that the words were in fact "we won't stop, we can't stop, so kill a cop."
The station apologized both on its Facebook page and in an interview with one of the protestors leading the chant.
I wonder how many of those cops who turned their backs on DiBlasio did so with a guilty conscience?
"Reuters interviewed 25 African American male officers on the NYPD, 15 of whom are retired and 10 of whom are still serving. All but one said that, when off duty and out of uniform, they had been victims of racial profiling, which refers to using race or ethnicity as grounds for suspecting someone of having committed a crime.
The officers said this included being pulled over for no reason, having their heads slammed against their cars, getting guns brandished in their faces, being thrown into prison vans and experiencing stop and frisks while shopping. The majority of the officers said they had been pulled over multiple times while driving. Five
had had guns pulled on them."
Rosenblatt Securities’s Jun Zhang today looks through the numbers in China’s roll-out of faster 4G wireless service and concludes the entire country needs to order more phones.
According to published numbers from China Mobile (CHL), the largest of the three Chinese carriers, the company’s subscribers for 4G, or LTE, wireless, is running ahead of what he estimates the company has sold in faster phones:
China Mobile reported 16.78 million 4G net adds for the month of November. By the end of November, China Mobile had 71.2 million 4G users. However, we believe China Mobile only sold around 65-70 million 4G smartphones so far and we think China Mobile will only sell 75-80 million 4G smartphones in 2014, 20% lower than they previously planned. We think many China Mobile branches upgraded 3G users to 4G services without upgrading their smartphones.
Zhang’s conclusion is that China Mobile, along with the other two national carriers, China Unicom (CHU) and China Telecom (CHA), needs to step up its sales of LTE phones in 2015. He sees chip vendors Micron Technology (MU), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) being victors in that regard, and also thinks Taiwanese chip vendor MediaTek (2454TW), which competes with Qualcomm (QCOM) is becoming interesting:
We think China Mobile will plan to procure 200 million 4G smartphones in 2015. China Telecom and China Unicom together will procure 80 million 4G smartphones in 2015. We believe that 4G smartphone procurement will reach 280 million units in 2015. We think inventory builds will restart again in Q2 of 2015 and we think the 4G smartphone supply chain names will benefit. We are now turning slightly positive on MediaTek, even though we believe that Q4:2014 and Q1:2015 results will still be weak. We are positive on Skyworks due to a high market share in the 4G PA market in China. We are positive on Micron due to higher Mobile DRAM demand from China 4G smartphones in 2015.
I hope for your sake you are just pretending to be as stupid as a person would have to be to miss the point here.
Repubs and or conservatives claim onerous regulation is killing the U.S. economy? Perhaps they have not considered regulation is the kind of thing that would have prevented the explosion of that fertilizer plant in TX this year. Not to mention the global financial meltdown Bush brought to us by turning a blind eye to the incredibly risky activities of the banking sector. Regulated capitalism results in the strongest, sustainable kind of economy.
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. economy grew at a sizzling 5 percent annual rate in the July-September period, the fastest in more than a decade, boosted by strength in consumer spending and business investment.
The resurgence in growth last quarter provided the latest evidence that the U.S. economy is steadily strengthening and outpacing most others around the word."
is the NRA. That organization is swimming in a pool of blood.
"The hot dental industry isn't alone; the semiconductor space has also undergone a radical transformation of late. Cramer knows that most investors associate semiconductors with being cyclical stocks with high peaks and low valleys. But things have changed recently, and the peaks and valleys are less extreme."
He went on to say he thinks the smaller players are going to get bought out. But my take on what he said has more to do with the multiples the market has traditionally been willing to pay for the semi sector. If in fact the ups and downs of the semi cycles are less severe, and if you accept the notion the sector is still in the "early innings" of a boom cycle due to the increasing demand for all things mobile, it's my opinion stocks like SWKS have p/e's that are justifiable in the present range and arguably should go higher. Of course that assumes there is no break in the current trends leading to the achievement of management's predicted $7 in non-GAAP EPS within a few years.
My takeaway was the RFMD-TQNT merger could at some point represent some competition for SWKS as currently SWKS is the only one stop shop in the market.
But I do like how he explained the cyclicality of the sector is lessening and he did have some nice things to say about SWKS. Not that his opinion is the be all end all but it does reinforce what the analysts have been saying.
It never had a chance to get to the $20's unless oil stabilized or went up. Oil was down over 3%, that's all you need to know to explain why SUNE was down. Please, lets not rehash the stupidity of that trade, just acknowledge it exists.
with over $800M in cash (and growing) and no debt, management is going to figure out a way to put some of the cash to use? Maybe increase the divi, declare a special divi, make an acquisition, something to either reward stockholders or grow the business. I guess it is certainly not unusual for a tech company to hold a lot of cash on the balance sheet but I would certainly like to see them be proactive with it.
"North Korea is having major Internet problems, just days after President Barack Obama promised a proportional response to the devastating hacks against Sony.
The country, which the FBI accused last week of the cyberattack, is suffering a total Internet outage that experts at DYN Research said is out of the ordinary, as first reported by North Korea Tech. According to the research firm, North Korea's Internet grew steadily worse beginning Sunday night, and then went completely offline Monday morning."
Good thing McCranky isn't president or there'd be missles flying.
Brean Capital’s Mike Burton today reiterates Buy ratings on wireless chip makers RF Micro Devices (RFMD) and TriQuint (TQNT), and raises price targets on both, writing that “we have become increasingly confident in both companies’ ability to meet or beat their near- term estimates,” thanks in no small part to business with Apple (AAPL) inside the iPhone.
RF Micro and TriQuint, you’ll recall, are merging into something called “Qorvo,” for which the companies received regulatory approval last month. (The stocks will begin trading together under the ticker “QRVO” on January 2nd.) With that last hurdle out of the way, the companies can start to focus cost savings they’ve been working on since March, notes Burton.
Burton had a meeting with RF’s head of investor relations, Doug Delieto, last Wednesday in New York, he writes. He came away with the impression “that some of the recent investor concerns about a ‘coming deterioration in pricing and/or margins’ looks like ‘healthy paranoia’ (we share the feeling, but it doesn’t look likely).”
Heavy revenue weighting from one company or product line is not desirable but if it has to be somebody (for now) I'm glad it's Apple.