Case and point, when I see that idiot Ottohuber, Geist Gunter, Steind squealing like a stuck pig like he did all day today, that is usually an inflection point :) Then again, he is aways squealing like a stuck pig for the most part, so strike that. LOL
Hey, go ahead and thumb me down. I am long myself, and I'd love to see gold take off :) I'm just saying, from my experience watching these Boards, whenever I see euphoria setting in, that is usually a short term top, and whenever I see despair, that is usually a short term bottom.
This orgy of celebration by the longs seems a bit premature and scares me a little.
The safest trade in my view is the neutral to bullish trade. My gut tells me that gold does not have a lot of downside. Also, I am not seeing reasons why it should be exploding upward any time soon. I favor the upside because there are many long term bull factors in place across the entire commodity space with the specter of inflation upon us. The only reason why gold would fall would be if its current valuation is too high even with inflation looming. It is very difficult to value gold, but given the climate we're in, it's hard to see why it would have a lot of downside. GS and some of the other big firms have that $1,000 target on it based on economic growth targets. That scares a lot of bulls and gives a lot of shorts confidence, yet I can't ignore the climate of 3% GDP and lots and lots of money that was created out of nothing, and I smell inflation coming - most likely stagflation. World turmoil is also holding the price up, but that is not something I consider looking at the big picture. I believe economic factors will continue to put a floor on the gold price favoring the neutral to bullish trade.
GDX up 25.1% so far this year. So far this year as the "WORTHLESS/USELESS" golds and silvers are concerned, you continue to be very wrong.
I tend to agree with you on this point. Short term, there are all kinds of pops and drops going on related to various news events and world turmoil. I look through all that to longer term purely economic factors. Since we have monetary debasement going on worldwide and continuing to go on, and at the same low GDP with no sign that GDP will pickup, the recipe is here for stagflation. I think gold is solid long term bet along with other hard assets like real estate and agricultural commodities. The worst thing of all to own is pure cash.
This is the gold Board, so why promote the overall stock market here in this daily plethora of desperate sounding cut and pastes? Also, nothing in markets is 100% guaranteed, so the fact that you are saying that anything = 100% guarantee means that you are full of it.
Yes, let's look into the future and take a guess. Looking into the future, I see a whole lot more currency debasement coming worldwide. In fact, that is the biggest reason to own real assets, like real estate and gold, and the exact reason the worse thing of all to own is plain cash of any kind in any great quantity.
I would also add that the longer gold stays dead in what is amounting to a very narrow trading range, the more the volatility is going to come out of the options. (i.e. the premiums will dry up on both the call and put side). The PM's could be dead for a while. I hope not, but that is a real possibility.
Even if the dollar is the strongest fiat currency in world relative to other major currencies, it is weakening intrinsically, and getting weaker by the day, and that will make asset prices go up. To illustrate, just pretend hypothetically for a moment that there was only one universal currency in the world, and let's say it was the dollar. That would eliminate the entire Forex markets for currencies, and there would be no such thing as an exchange rate, yet if the central bank in this hypothetical were to indiscriminately continue to print money out of nothing, the currency would be debased, and all asset prices would have to inflate in order to show the same value as the currency was debased. Therefore, in reality, gold (or any other asset) does not have to go down just because the dollar relative to other currencies is getting stronger. It could be that the dollar is just the strongest of all the dying currencies as central banks print and print. My point is simply that dollar strength relative to other currencies is only one part of a very big equation involving many factors.
Yes, OTM calls and puts make sense given the trading range shows now sign of an imminent end. You wouldn't know that by the dumb posts people like dollardominance or goldendong put up, but the reality is that it hasn't been moving much in either direction. These Chicken Little's will eventually be right, and it will move out of the range to clear below $,1200 or above $,1400, but no one knows when. As a big picture guy and bullish commodities in the big picture, I favor selling the puts closer to ITM, and the calls further OTM. I also hold a core long position, so my calls are covered. On the put side, I run a credit spread (long OTM puts against the ITM short puts) to protect the downside in case of a collapse. The people straddling the$1,275 to $1,325 levels, or outright strangling the $,1300 level are doing quite nicely.
I don't think the dollar is at bottom intrinsically, Maybe relative to other currencies it could be near bottom, but in terms of debasement across its absolute value, it is being debased more and more each day as are all currencies worldwide. People love to measure the dollar in terms of its value relative to other currencies, and it is there that they miss the mark. There is another way to value it that isn't discussed much, and that is in terms of its buying power. Therefore, inflation will rear its ugly head inevitably, and that puts a bottom on gold. The most difficult part is that It is very tough to pin down a timeframe on its development. I am going to keep selling volatility in the options markets for the short and medium term, to capitalize on the relatively narrow trading range that goes on and on, while I hold a core long position for the long term. Rising rates are a cross current, yes, but in the end, I feel inflation will be the stronger force to recon with, and given that the GDP numbers are so disappointing and continue to be disappointing, we are talking stagflation coming, the worst kind of inflation. That's why I don't think gold will crash.
You are an enigma :) lol OttoGeistSteind… I can't figure you out, with your endless cutting and pasting, "snow to eskimos", and all the same endless nonsense, but you are indeed a funny character. For all that you are, one thing I can safely say you're not is a real trader. Real traders see things for what they are. They never live in denial, and they seize opportunities while managing risk. You are no trader based on your inability to see things for what they really are. There is no disputing the fact that gold has been and continues to be in a $200 trading range for over 14 months, and actually that range in the last 6 months is closer to $1,250 to $,1350. Not a darn thing changed today. Have a lovely holiday, silly guy.
We're still in the middle of the range, and today is really no big seminal moment as I see it. Gold has a bunch of bear and bull factors always cooked into it, ranging from economic, to world turmoil, to dollar strength. In aggregate, there are about as many things that could make it go down as go up as go down in the short to medium term, and that is exactly why is just sits in this trading range week after week. That is also why OttoGeistSteid has been so wrong about gold. He thinks it must be worthless, but such isn't the case with any of the commodities. Gold is no exception, and why should it be? If inflation rears its head, all the commodities, including gold will rise. He doesn't recognize the obvious - we are stuck in a trading range, and there is a very real possibility that we will be looking at this same trading range a year from now. I think there are enough bullish factors in place to put a reasonable floor on gold, so I favor the neutral to bullish side of a long term trade.
Your problem, OttoGeistSteind, is that you are only looking at one particular timeframe. Traders operate in various timeframes, and in the biggest picture of the PM markets, we don't know that we're in a bear market. We may well in fact be in a long term bull market. The PM's were on an 8 year bull run before the move down to current levels occurred a couple years ago. Even if it's true that the bull market in PM's is over (and we don't know that), one thing that is abundantly clear is that the PM's have held in the $1,200 to $1,400 trading range for well over a year. Who is anyone to say with any certainty that this trading range could not hold for many more months? Personally, I hope it does bust out of the range to the north, but to say that during the past 14 months that gold has held in this range has not been capitalized on by selling both calls AND PUTS by smart traders is just plain ignorant on your part. You are so focused on this one intermediate timeframe of yours that tells you we are in bear market in gold, that you are unable to realize that in the shorter time frames we are most definitely in a sideways market, and perhaps in the much longer one, we may well in fact be in a bull market. You are not thinking clearly.
Lots of people making money selling gold puts, OttoGeistSteind… just not you because you're a nitwit, and your busy posting the same nothings all day long while real traders are trading. Now that's a real reason for laughing out loud.
Sorry typo, I meant to write short straddling $1,200 to $1,400 and strangling near $,1300 have been very nice trades. OttoGeistSteind, bottom line, the traders that have had the guts to sell puts in the face of all the bear comments and lower price targets from GS and others this past year are the one's that are making money.
OttoGeist, this post is ridiculous. You love to talk about gold and silver calls expiring worthless. Have you not noticed that in the last year gold and silver puts have also been expiring worthless? You don't think the sellers of the $1,250 puts for the last several months aren't doing just as well as the sellers of the $1,350 calls? Heck, the put sellers are making more money than the call sellers right now, if you want to get technical, because of the premium big firms like Goldman Sachs add to the put extrinsic every time they talk about their $1,000 targets on gold. The fear that they put into the PM markets that so far has not been realized has just made the put sellers more successful than the call sellers. All this of course is always subject to change, but those are the facts right now. You really need to talk specific strikes and expirations in order to make any sense here. These rants of yours are getting more and more ridiculous by the day. The fact is both call sellers and put sellers that are short straddling $1,200 to $,1300 or strangling near $,1300 are the ones doing quite nicely so far for the 14 month look back.
Actually, Geist is just the name I prefer to call him (her). It could be Otto, or Steind, or whatever since few people disclose their names on the Boards. He has previously referenced the German people as being intellectually superior to all others, so I am guessing Geist is German :) That, by the way, is another example of how Geist gets his IDs revoked. Sometimes he goes over the top and gets outright offensive, gets revoked, and then a couple days later is reincarnated into a new ID, and the last three are all German names. It is quite humorous to me.
Iu3, peace. I like the trade too, but then again I am bullish, and I have always favored selling puts as a way to get long. When I first got on the Board and read the first Insect_Insight post, I had no idea that this character is a prolific poster that basically cuts and pastes the same rants in various forms dozens of times per day and hundreds of times per month. I actually like Geist because I can tell he is a smart person - and yet childlike. He is a good writer, and I respect that aspect. On the other hand, he is extremely condescending, and the whole idea of posting endlessly on this Board the same thing over and over again just makes a lot of useless noise after a while. I am calling Geist out for that, and also the fact that he keeps changing ID's. Apparently, a lot of people report him for abuse, and he is forced to change ID's and all his previous posts under the old ID are conveniently deleted at the same time.