The trouble with this kind of study you are using is statistical significance - too little data to draw a conclusion about what happens next. A 100 year monthly chart has only 1200 data points (100 x 12). If you could show us a chart that goes back 5,000 years, now we can start to glean a picture. A hundred year monthly chart is very hard to use to make any kind of reliable prediction, especially on gold which has so many things cooked into its price at any given time in human history.
That is an interesting thing to consider. We know there is some world turmoil in the gold price. The question is how much, and if the situation were to calm down over the next few weeks in the MidEast and Russia, how much juice would that take out of the gold price? I am in gold for purely economic reasons that I see in the big scheme of things. I don't consider world turmoil, nor do I wish for it. If world turmoil were calm, I would not be surprised to see gold work its way back towards the middle of the range, $1,300, but as inflation and tepid economic growth start to come into the price more, gold will move higher towards $1,400 without the turmoil.
I am a long term bull, but I admit that we are still solidly inside the trading range. Now we are approaching the upper 30% of the range. Let's see what happens in the coming weeks. When it solidly breaks up north of $1,420, that will be big.
Absolutely no way he works for a hedge fund. Geist is a rogue fool that just likes to post and post his nonsense. Ah, the wasted time… But that's OttoGeistSteidCainineInsect for you. The Board enigma.
Goldendong, do you honestly think that Otto is paid by a hedge fund to post his nonsense on this Board? You give him way too much credit for being anybody at all.
Otto, the miners, a good proxy being GDX, are up 25% on the year, so in 2014 if you shorted the miners, you did some fine work towards blowing up your account. That is a fact. Gold itself has not faired as well, being up 8% on the year. The S&P 500 is up 7%, so gold and the S&P are about neck to neck. Can't you see that the discussion has to reflect the specific product being traded and the time the trade was entered? Talking about gold, gold miners, the stock market at large and how they relate to each other is great, but without specific products, entry points, and trade timeframes being clarified, it becomes a bunch of mumbo jumbo.
Very true. I have been telling Gruber that factually the GDX alone is up over 25% so far in 2014 against the S&P 500''s 7%. Yet Grubber is in complete denial of that fact. Obviously he is working in a much more macro timeframe that caused him to completely miss the 25% move, AND worse, if he's short, he gave it back, or loss writing calls or whatever he claims to be doing. I doubt he actually trades. I can understand that many here are long term shorts and depending on where they took that short position, they could still be up big. However, there is no denying that in 2014, the people that were smart enough and lucky enough to go long are up quite nicely. The future is anybody's guess. Right now some people are up, some down, and it all depends on the timeframe of their trades.
"Cratered"? Down 1.80% on the day to be factual. You would characterize that as cratering? I am giving you the honorary blue ribbon for the dumbest posts on this Board. LOL
Case and point, when I see that idiot Ottohuber, Geist Gunter, Steind squealing like a stuck pig like he did all day today, that is usually an inflection point :) Then again, he is aways squealing like a stuck pig for the most part, so strike that. LOL
Hey, go ahead and thumb me down. I am long myself, and I'd love to see gold take off :) I'm just saying, from my experience watching these Boards, whenever I see euphoria setting in, that is usually a short term top, and whenever I see despair, that is usually a short term bottom.
This orgy of celebration by the longs seems a bit premature and scares me a little.
The safest trade in my view is the neutral to bullish trade. My gut tells me that gold does not have a lot of downside. Also, I am not seeing reasons why it should be exploding upward any time soon. I favor the upside because there are many long term bull factors in place across the entire commodity space with the specter of inflation upon us. The only reason why gold would fall would be if its current valuation is too high even with inflation looming. It is very difficult to value gold, but given the climate we're in, it's hard to see why it would have a lot of downside. GS and some of the other big firms have that $1,000 target on it based on economic growth targets. That scares a lot of bulls and gives a lot of shorts confidence, yet I can't ignore the climate of 3% GDP and lots and lots of money that was created out of nothing, and I smell inflation coming - most likely stagflation. World turmoil is also holding the price up, but that is not something I consider looking at the big picture. I believe economic factors will continue to put a floor on the gold price favoring the neutral to bullish trade.
GDX up 25.1% so far this year. So far this year as the "WORTHLESS/USELESS" golds and silvers are concerned, you continue to be very wrong.
I tend to agree with you on this point. Short term, there are all kinds of pops and drops going on related to various news events and world turmoil. I look through all that to longer term purely economic factors. Since we have monetary debasement going on worldwide and continuing to go on, and at the same low GDP with no sign that GDP will pickup, the recipe is here for stagflation. I think gold is solid long term bet along with other hard assets like real estate and agricultural commodities. The worst thing of all to own is pure cash.
This is the gold Board, so why promote the overall stock market here in this daily plethora of desperate sounding cut and pastes? Also, nothing in markets is 100% guaranteed, so the fact that you are saying that anything = 100% guarantee means that you are full of it.
Yes, let's look into the future and take a guess. Looking into the future, I see a whole lot more currency debasement coming worldwide. In fact, that is the biggest reason to own real assets, like real estate and gold, and the exact reason the worse thing of all to own is plain cash of any kind in any great quantity.
I would also add that the longer gold stays dead in what is amounting to a very narrow trading range, the more the volatility is going to come out of the options. (i.e. the premiums will dry up on both the call and put side). The PM's could be dead for a while. I hope not, but that is a real possibility.
Even if the dollar is the strongest fiat currency in world relative to other major currencies, it is weakening intrinsically, and getting weaker by the day, and that will make asset prices go up. To illustrate, just pretend hypothetically for a moment that there was only one universal currency in the world, and let's say it was the dollar. That would eliminate the entire Forex markets for currencies, and there would be no such thing as an exchange rate, yet if the central bank in this hypothetical were to indiscriminately continue to print money out of nothing, the currency would be debased, and all asset prices would have to inflate in order to show the same value as the currency was debased. Therefore, in reality, gold (or any other asset) does not have to go down just because the dollar relative to other currencies is getting stronger. It could be that the dollar is just the strongest of all the dying currencies as central banks print and print. My point is simply that dollar strength relative to other currencies is only one part of a very big equation involving many factors.
Yes, OTM calls and puts make sense given the trading range shows now sign of an imminent end. You wouldn't know that by the dumb posts people like dollardominance or goldendong put up, but the reality is that it hasn't been moving much in either direction. These Chicken Little's will eventually be right, and it will move out of the range to clear below $,1200 or above $,1400, but no one knows when. As a big picture guy and bullish commodities in the big picture, I favor selling the puts closer to ITM, and the calls further OTM. I also hold a core long position, so my calls are covered. On the put side, I run a credit spread (long OTM puts against the ITM short puts) to protect the downside in case of a collapse. The people straddling the$1,275 to $1,325 levels, or outright strangling the $,1300 level are doing quite nicely.
I don't think the dollar is at bottom intrinsically, Maybe relative to other currencies it could be near bottom, but in terms of debasement across its absolute value, it is being debased more and more each day as are all currencies worldwide. People love to measure the dollar in terms of its value relative to other currencies, and it is there that they miss the mark. There is another way to value it that isn't discussed much, and that is in terms of its buying power. Therefore, inflation will rear its ugly head inevitably, and that puts a bottom on gold. The most difficult part is that It is very tough to pin down a timeframe on its development. I am going to keep selling volatility in the options markets for the short and medium term, to capitalize on the relatively narrow trading range that goes on and on, while I hold a core long position for the long term. Rising rates are a cross current, yes, but in the end, I feel inflation will be the stronger force to recon with, and given that the GDP numbers are so disappointing and continue to be disappointing, we are talking stagflation coming, the worst kind of inflation. That's why I don't think gold will crash.