Itsall...no. I'm saying Citi put up a red flag claiming LTE growth was slowing. As evidence they pointed to an estimated 30% decline in Chinese smartphone OEM's sales in the quarter. But, they failed to mention (probably because they aren't knowledgable enough) that the reason for the 30% shortfall for Chinese OEM's is the fact the iPhone is taking market share in China.
The reality is, LTE smartphone growth is not slowing. There is simply a shift in volume (market share) from China OEM's to Apple. And, this is good for SWKS.
It would make sense to me since last week's sell off gave the big boys the lower pps they wanted. NXPI was down 4.5% last week. This is how it works.
I agree, toast. Still, I think it's safe to assume a sale of an iPhone is better for SWKS than a sale of a Xiaomi smartphone..
The iPhone number will VERY likely be over 60 million. Why use a "consensus" number which is essentially an average estimate which includes all the perma Bears? Btw, 70 million will no way happen.
Ohhhhhhh, so that's why the Chinese OEM's were down 30%? (sarcasm alert). Hmmmmm, imagine that!
Could it be that SWKS was able to trade low dollar- volume Chinese smartphones for high dollar-volume iPhones in the quarter? Don't tell me some Citi analyst was telling only part of the smartphone story when he was freaking out over a 30% pullback in Chinese OEM's smartphones in the quarter.
I'm tellin' ya...listen to these analysts, but you better know the details for yourself. They can spin it however they want, or in many cases just don't know what they are talking about.
Apple likely had a blow out quarter at the expense of Chinese OEM's...a great scenario for SWKS. Good luck longs!
I do not know the details of the relationship with QCOM, toast. Generally, it is true that SWKS supplies QCOM in some way. How or if SWKS is therefore impacted by Samsung's move from QCOM to its own modem, I do not know. The possibility of SWKS as a supplier to Samsung for what they used to supply to QCOM could be in play, though.
In other words, I do not know.
I continue to appreciate you providing these relevant reminders, toast. We agree on the bright future for SWKS, even if we don't agree on the pace of growth from here.
Another thing I will mention...the highest EPS estimate I have seen from an analyst for FY16 is $5.94. Again, my estimate is $7, or 18% higher.
Analysts are always the last to know and/or reflect "real" estimates in their forecasts. They have nothing to gain by risking getting their estimates too far ahead of the game. In fact, in doing so they would be taking undue risks with their clients' money.
With that in mind, their estimates have been well behind reality for over a year, toast. So, why do you think they are suddenly correct, or even close, now?
In the late Fall of 2013, SWKS said they see their business in terms $5 EPS. 18 months later (June 2015) that is where the EPS will be. Then, in the late Fall of 2014, SWKS said they now see their business in terms of $7 EPS. I am giving them 24 months to get to $7 which puts them there at the end of FY16.
That's the long answer. The short answer would have been...I am listening to SWKS' leadership.
The $4.50 number is curious to me because in recent quarterly cc's they have talked about content in the $10-$12 range. In fact, in one call a couple quarters ago, they had an unidentified smartphone with them. They mentioned their dollar content in that phone was greater than all others. And, I believe they said they had $10 in that phone.
Subsequent to that, in the Raymond James meeting they mentioned they currently had the next two generations of smartphones on the drawing board with a couple OEM's. They said in those next generation smartphones their dollar content would be in the mid-teens.
Again, who do you believe? SWKS or an analyst? SWKS, of course.
No worries for you since you exited 80% of your position. You must be happy with that decision...so far. You are certainly going out of your way to point out all possible negative indicators. That is typical of someone who recently sold most of their holdings.
Skylight...Rightfully so, you listen to the company's comments about their business. Others here rely more on so called experts not within the SWKS organization to define "cyclical weakness" and the like. I agree with your approach. Good luck.
The reason for the sideways move is called basing or consolidation. This makes for a healthy chart, and should set up well going into earnings.