The only profit on a BLUE short for the next couple years is luck in timing a trade. In the universe of stocks this is not one to short.
BLUE went into this JPM conference with run up in pps, high investor expectations, no new material info provided in the presentation and the broader market is volatile. The laws of stock logic say BLUE pps should decline today... No ordinary stock can hold up under these circumstances... and yet my gut tells BLUE is no ordinary stock. There's no credible bear thesis against BLUE other than technical corrections occur so why not now.
we'll see soon enough if I'm wrong. I'm long BLUE to $250 plus with no plans to trade. Just having fun predicting a pattern seen before.
BLUE will spike up a bit in the last hour of trading today as the hope of material news at JPM is too tempting for some. Then when no new material news is given out by BLUE that isn't already known it'll sell off hard on Weds in the AM. After that.. it all depends on when the market judges a bottom. My guess is low 90s, could be lower. Could last for 7-10 days then the shorts will rush to the exists and longs will want in before the next big leg up to the $120s
Unless they release some new material info not likely. The market already knows they've treated SCD patients and the initial results will most likely be positive, they have lots of cash, and they're working on CAR-T. It that's all that's offered up then BLUE will sell off for a couple weeks. But then it'll start heading back up as the market anticipates new info later in the year.
Prediction - BLUE will sell off to... low $90s. Bashers will appear proclaiming BLUE is overvalued, longs will lament and within a week or two BLUE will resume its climb up. And so it goes.
yeah, I gave myself red thumbs down when I realized going long INO was a mistake and the real action around immunotherapy was elsewhere and why. I give it to INO though, they produce great investor presentations. But just stating their electroporation creates 100 time greater t-cell response relative to other electroporation devices is a vacuous statement. If that 100 times t-cell response is only 1/10000 as strong as say CAR-T and only produces marginal therapeutic benefits then who cares?
And progress on their CAR-T work in 2015... SCD and CAR-T and the extra kickers will be announcements of pre-clinical work on additional therapies not yet publically disclosed.
You now understand why JUNO, KITE, Bellicum, etc are what they are and why DNDN, NWBO and INO are what they are... stimulating dendritic cells to get sufficient T-Cells action is problematic. Going straight to T-cells bypasses many immune system brakes. Using the dendritic path is a dead end to a successful therapy and appreciation in your investment.
bluebird bio, Inc. (Nasdaq: BLUE) today announced that management will present at the 33rd annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Wednesday, January 14, 2015 at 2:30 p.m. PST. The conference is being held January 12-15, 2015 at the Westin St. Francis in San Francisco
I agree. But negotiating with Medicaid to get some of those billions will be a must. It's a mathematical reality when it comes to SCD. Let's hope the SCD community and Bluebird have good lobbyists.
Oh, prejudice in all its forms economic, religious, etc. isn't so obtuse as to be explicitly stated in public these days. No, prejudice comes in the form of a phone call not returned, an email ignored, meeting made with no one of authority, or the best one "requires further study". I vote democrat if for no other reason than the belief I'm doing some small part in keeping a thumb on the other end of the scale of justice. But I also recognize that thumb isn't as realible as we wish it to be.
I'm not saying there aren't payers for this SCD patient population, I'm just saying the payers for this patient population may be resistant to paying much for it. Capitalism does a lot of good but it has it failings. When any random CEO or congressman can foresee their child with ALD but none see their child with SCD the moral mission, spare no expense to fully reimburse ALD somehow gets done while it doesn't happen for something like SCD. I'm just weighing that reality as a BLUE investor.
Putting aside the moral dimension that our value is not determined by how much money we have... Approx 90k SCD patients in the US, 65% to 70% are economically disadvantaged per the SCDDA stats. At best approx 27K SCD patients are covered by private health insurance and I suspect a good portion of those health insurance plans will be very resistant to shelling out $500k plus for bluebird's SCD therapy. And while there are millions affected by SCD in Africa and all, let's be honest this is a first world drug. There's no meaningful market outside of the U.S. and EU that can support this therapy.
Basically, unless bluebird can get Medicaid on board with appropriate reimbursement the billions in projected earnings will not materialize. The politics cut both ways. On the one hand providing healthcare to the disadvantaged is a government function most people can agree with but on the other hand it's to easy for politicians to hold congressional hearings railing against treatments that cost $500k plus.
I predict generic Lorcaserin/phen will be a big hit with weight loss centers years from now....