Got to have a well establish growth trend in scripts for the pps of VVUS to reliably move up and maintain it. This Flat 10K scripts per week won't cut it. If this flat rate continues into late Jan I believe VVUS will take another big leg down. (same goes for ARNA) Market is looking for strong evidence of sustained growth and it doesn't see it in scripts or interest from patients and doctors (if you take search traffic as an indicator as I do). The speculation growth will come soon is what's holding up the pps for now but that will only go so far. Things have to turn around for VVUS and ARNA come Jan - May or you're looking at 2015 before the next round of speculation and share appreciation IMO.
The physical construction of the staccato device (the physical product) is probably the least valuable part and a fraction of the total value that is Staccato (and Adasuve). The intellectual property, the sales, the R&D, the regulatory, finance, etc, etc expertise is what matters (and it's there in CA). I fail to see how you have much of a point ends-met about the 1-5% that goes into the physical construction of the device.
Yes, absolutely the pps of ALXA could just stay the same even when sales start, or it could go up or it could go down. AAA bonds may give you certainty you seek over X period of time.
Don't get me wrong with what I'm about to say, the long case for ALXA stands just fine on Adasuve alone, Rasagline is potentially icing on the cake. And I haven't had the time dig into this too much... having said that this is how I would sum up what you have found so far. 1) 'inhaling a drug gets into the blood quickly' we know that. 2) "PD patients shake so taking a pill might be hard when they do" .. but they get around to eating and drinking like everyone else and they can and do successful take pills sometimes with help... opening an inhaler box and holding the inhaler up to your lips is probably just as challenging when shaking as taking a pill IMO. 3) 'Aerosol gets deep into the lungs and that's good for treating stuff in the lungs' For this drug, who cares? It needs to go to the brain. 4) 'Fast onset is good for ... yada yada yada" Agree, but for this specific s drug fast onset makes no difference. There might be a case for fewer side effects with inhalation but from my initial reading Rasagline is well tolerated in oral form.
Teva sees something here. I just see an evergreening attempt... which in the end money is money right. I just don't see how staccato necessarily fits here and I would prefer to see revenue projects based upon real value to patients and not just a patent construct that's keeping generics out.
from what I can tell, CF, ends-met, etc are either down significantly on ALXA or they or someone they know was been laid off from Alexza and they personally blame King for their predicament. They have some depth of knowledge about ALXA but every event is filtered through this emotional dislike of King. Bet King doesn't give them any thought. Hate and revenge animates them. From my perspective it's a bizarre way to spend your precious time here on earth, but to each their own I suppose.
Already priced in. Why isn't the market cap of ALXA $150 million, answer capital raise is priced in.
I am, :) The need for additional financing is well known and already priced into the stock. Alexza has cash to Q3 2014. In the 10Qs and repeated many a time by management. There is no surprise here. All the analyst know this, you know it, I know it. ALXA is well positioned to assume debt, but equity financing will do to. Either way my downside risk is minimal at this pps.
CF, everything you listed is already priced into the stock. It's why I'm long ALXA. In this worst case scenario you layout here I break even... oh well, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
the pps of sa tock is based upon estimates of future earnings. It has nothing to do with a prize given out in Stockholm. Give that a thought.
I understand, but for this particular drug and for the long-term treatment of PD does it matter? At first glance, changing the delivery of Rasagiline appears to be an 'evergreening' maneuver by Teva with no practical clinical advantage to the patient. I'm not an expert on the legal ins and out of how to accomplish evergreening or what's the probability of success is for this drug. Clearly, Teva believes they have a good chance of success or they wouldn't be planning to expend the resources to try it.
From what I read, Rasagiline is rapidly absorbed with oral administration and the half life is 3 hours. But because its an irreversible inhibition of MAO-B there is no correlation of pharmacokinetics with its pharmacological effect.... so who cares (from the patients perspective) if the drug is delivered via pill or staccato?
After studying Rasagiline, what's the clinical advantage of administering Rasagiline via Staccato? There is no accute condition there that would be helped with a rapid onset. Yet Teva is looking at an alternative delivery path. Must be some patent angle that makes it tougher for a generic to come in. Don't know enough about that to understand how that would work.
Thanks shaggy_dawg. Looking for evidence of sustainable trends in patient awareness and physician adoption. When I'm confident in the fundamentals I can tolerate the daily ups and downs of a stock. When I don't believe I have that understanding I get nervous and go to the sidelines.