for though I walk thru the shadow of the valley of bankruptcy, my accountant and my attorney further encumber me....
mkt is being very efficient - and exacting a small toll from pro-forma FYE'14 / 1Q'15 net asset value.
I get abt $2.55 a share looking at future dilution thru 1Q '15 (assuming the other $4.5 tranche will be converted).
With less moving parts and most of the heavy lifting done on the re-org for now - mgmt can hopefully on getting day to day ops cleaned up and getting MEA well positioned to grab any added business from the improving economy and any increase in domestic mftg over the new few years as the dollar strenghtens.
Who knows - but at $0.38 a share, taking a small spec position might pay off.
mgmt has made some good practical moves. debt levels and debt service have been sharply reduced. as the economy rolls along - metals prices should firm.
or sell. if you bought in at 31.50ish. still long. but took the piece off the table that I was forced to hold for 2 days. the indignity of it all.
80 - 85. for a minimal ROE.
There will be a sizable FC write down this qtr or next. Around $300M or so. Maybe higher.
But they did issue stock when it was at $30 - so they have solid cash - for the next 18 months or so.
good LT play. I opened a small position just now. will add some over time.
should be back at 25 - 30 within 18 months.
I finally stopped ordering from them. I have been a customer since 1999.
The past 6 months they messed up order after order. Got tired of filing claims and hunting down packages and tracking numbers.
Not sure where the problem lies. Maybe it is the shippers - UPS or FDX.
Or maybe you have to have Amazon Prime now to have anything shipped reasonably promptly and accurately.
But I just go directly to the specific retailer for the items I need now.
Just curious if anyone else has noticed this.
standard low ball the next qtr. wh they do almost every qtr.
they need to raise the div. 20 cents a year and add another $10B to the buyback.
if not, then she is a Hold at best.
easily done. but after the late 90's / early 00's acq spree, they are moving more cautiously these days.
which is good. and with $50B in cash they can double the share buybacks, double the dividend, and do $10B in acq's and still have $20B or so leftover. Plus whatever cash they generate in the years to come.
Did they sell their hedges? Anyone? I think I saw a non recurring gain. Haven't looked at the call tranny yet.
The Hawk is wounded a bit - but she still flies.
what facts made you optimistic? I didnt listen to it.
they are issuing another 39 MM shares and using $22.5MM in cash. Still losing mkt share and lowering guidance. Again.