lostmountain. If you intend to buy more, than i would continue to wait until the price gets into the 75's. There is still 15 days left in the quarter and i don't expect the distribution announcement until 3 weeks from today or tomorrow, so there is still time for this to be push into the 75's (today may be the day). As i said, this can be manipulated on very small volume; today is an example of that. Over the last 7 days, BP's share of the production has averaged over 86.5k barrels and oil is at $97.50/barrel, with an expect distribution for the quarter of $2.35 - $2.40, but the price is declining. I expect further declines for this week.
Your lucky, you caught me at my computer today. BP receives 26.36% of the Prudhoe Bay daily production and then BPT gets 16.426% of BP's share, up to the first 90k barrels of daily production. Good to see December's production increasing to where BP is now getting over 87k barrels as of Tuesday. Hope this helps.
From the Alaska Dept of Revenue - Tax Division. They have the daily output reported (2 days delayed). Some good news is that Tuesday's daily production (BP's share) was over 87k barrels - still not at the 90k level, but showing a steady improvement.
You are right about the distribution - should be in the $2.30 - $2.40 range. This is based on October's average daily production of 79k barrels (BP's share) and an oil price of basically $100/barrel, November's average daily production of almost 85k barrels (good, but still not the 90k we would like) and an oil price of basically $94/barrel and an estimate of December's average daily production of 82k barrels (Dec got off to a slow start, but the production of the last couple of days has increased to a daily average of over 86k, so the 82k may be conservative) and an estimated price per barrel of $97 (today around $97.75). I estimate the estimated production for the quarter will be about 82k barrels at an average oil price of $97 for the quarter. With chargeable costs of around $30.50 and taxes about $25.50, this leaves net revenue per barrel of $41 times 1.235 million barrels of oil (BPT's share of the production) and results in about $50-$51m of net revenue or a $2.30 to $2.40 distribution. I still think we will have a another chance to purchase this under $75 share as BPT can be manipulated and will be before the end of December. Today's action is representative of that.
Based on past history, the distribution announcement will be on either Jan 6 or 7th with ex-dividend date being Jan 13 or 14th.
viahosa2000 .... This is very similar to last year's price action, so i would not make any purchases until this settles in the low 70's. I am not sure why this drops so much considering that the last distribution was $2.17 and the stock topped out around $88-$89 just before going ex-dividend and now this is selling at $78 (and probably going lower), when the next distribution should be around $2.35. I do believe that this stock is and can be manipulated because of the low daily volume. Hard to watch, but this pattern seems to play out over and over.
i should have added that oil being down probably $9, at least, from last quarter is the real driver of the price decline in the units - almost 9%, so not surprising selling under $80 right now.
viahosa2000 - i have to agree with you. This Q is all the data, etc. for the distribution that was paid in July 2013 ($2.143), but it does provide a lot of information about the the reason the Oct. dividend was so good - the good news was that the price of oil for that distribution was over $105/barrel, the bad news is that the production for the quarter was pretty low - not as bad as the same quarter of 2012, but still under 70k barrels/day. So the $2.168 paid in Oct was a nice increase over the $1.822 paid in Oct 2012, but about 30 cents was due to the increase in the price of oil and 5 cents from production. I think the significant drop in the price is due to the worries about production for the upcoming quarter. Production is normally low during July, August and Sept for repairs on the pipeline, wells and other facilities, so the reduced production is not a surprised. Based on the Prudhoe production reported (Alaska tax agency) for Oct and Nov, output is increasing back to levels that should result in the daily production being in the 82k-85k range for Oct, Nov. and Dec. (not sure we ever see the 90's again). If you assume a quarterly price of oil of $96 (Oct averaged $100, so hopefully oil holds over $94 for Nov & Dec - a big if), a royalty per barrel of $40 and daily production of 83.5k/barrels, then the next distribution should be around $2.35 to $2.40 - not bad and an increase over the same period last year ($2.315). I do think you will have several opportunities to buy this at a lower price over the next several weeks.
viahosa2000 - one more thing about the 10-Q, i would be surprised if it is filed today. I know that Yahoo is reporting that today is the earnings release day, but based on my experience, i would expect the 10-Q to be filed this Friday. Now i may be wrong and if the 10-Q is filed today, then great, but if it is filed on Friday, as i expect, then i would not want the few readers of this board to get concerned that it was not filed today. Historically, this trustee files all financial information for the trust on a Friday.
The Trustee will file the 10-Q with the SEC sometime tomorrow, never checked to see if it is filed before, during or after the market closes. This will be the extent of the reporting - no press release or call.
viahosa2000, I also have been concerned about the rapid drop in price, but it looks as if some fund wants out at any price. As for the quarter, I think they are going to report an average WTI price of around $94.10 for the period. I use the monthly average price, not the daily, so i am usually off 5-15 cents and a very slight increase in production over the previous 3 months, but a nice increase over the same three months of 2012. For the quarter,I think we see chargable costs of around $30.30/barrel and taxes of around $25/barrel, leaving about $38.80 of royalty/barrel. For next quarter, i calcuate a distribution between $2.45 and $2.55. My assumptions and calculations are : the average price of WTI should be about $105.80 (daily price for July, August, Sept), chargable costs of $31/barrel (a little high) and taxes of $28-$30/barrel, for an average royalty of between $44.80 and $46.80/barrel. I expect the production to be around 1,345,000 barrels (total), for a distribution of around $60m to $63m on 24.4m shares or $2.45 to 2.55. However, could be a long quarter until we get to the January announcement.
What is really troubling is that this quarter they have finished 168 wells and produced 541 MBoe, last quarter, they had 151 wells completed and produced 651 MBoe - that is a 17% drop with 17 more wells. Two quarters ago, they had 119 wells completed and produced 518 MBoe and the quarter before 99 wells and 521 MBoe. Two things jump out - lots of new wells, but no higher production except for the last quarter and why do much higher and then a drop back to the 541 MBoe level. As for the dividend being partially funded by the subordinated, they missed it by only $275k. Next quarter will be when the rubber meets the road - production better be up or this trust is toast. Also, I am shocked that SDT is only down 8% and this 17% - SDT is probably worth $10 at best.
Lisa........ i am not sure the distributions will drop "significantly" after the subordination period as SDR needs about $27m of quarterly earnings to pay a 54 cent dividend on the approx 50m total shares (common and subordinated that become common). This quarter, it earned $26.5m. If they can continue to earn around $27m, then the distribution will stay around 55 cents. However, I do agree with you that the distributions will drop, but as a result of reduced production, which seems to be already occurring. If they don't earn at least that $27m next quarter, then this won't even be worth $10.
Next quarter the common gets the first $ .56 of earnings. Following quarters, the common units get the first 58, 60, 60 and 58 cents of earnings. This quarter, it had a cushion of about $5.5 million of meeting the common unit distribution. Basically, they have to earn about $21.5 m to meet the common unit requirement and this quarter, it earned about $26 m. Last quarter, they earned about $34m. This quarter more in line with history, last quarter greater production (17 % higher than this quarter) - maybe so SD could sell some of their units. You may get a chance to buy at $12.25 tomorrow.
The only good thing is that the after hours drop of 10% is on only 15,700 shares - i would have thought there would have been a rush to the exits. Tomorrow morning could be tough to watch.
Agree with you Liza. They will be hard pressed to pay 45 cents come Aug 2014. This is going to $10 quickly.
SDR distributed $ .68 last quarter - everyone was expecting an increase and not a 20% drop. Based on last quarter's high of $15.75 and the distribution of $ .68, the corresponding number for this quarter is $12.50.
After looking back several quarters, i wouldn't be surprised if they waited until next Thursday - Oct. 31. They seem to pick the last Thursday of the month to make the announcement.