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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

tomn5570 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2014 2:38 PM Member since: Jan 3, 2010
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  • tomn5570 by tomn5570 Jul 24, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Production numbers for the last 4 days are running less than a third of normal production. Normally, production drops in the summer, but these numbers have not been seen since July 2011. Does anyone have any information on the reason for this large drop in production? Average production is running 30% behind last quarter, while oil prices are about the same. At this rate, the quarterly distribution will drop by 30% over last quarter.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Youch

    by starcommand777 Jul 14, 2014 10:12 AM
    tomn5570 tomn5570 Jul 15, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    Google "Repeal of Alaskan Oil Tax Reform Ballot Measure 1" - the first item is ballotpedia which provides a great overview of the issue. The Tax Reform voted in effective Jan 1, 2014 probably added about 20% to BPT's distribution for both the 1st and 2nd quarter of this year. If it is repealed, I would expect the distribution to be around $2.05 to $2.10 based on $100 oil prices and a 10% decline in production compared to last quarter.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Youch

    by starcommand777 Jul 14, 2014 10:12 AM
    tomn5570 tomn5570 Jul 14, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    The third quarter is always a challenge for this trust. Most long time investors know this is always a tough quarter due to maintenance being preformed on all the equipment & wells. I would expect a 15% drop in the distribution for the third quarter if the price of oil averages $100 for the quarter and production drops 10% from last quarter (current run rate is minus 10%) - looking at something around $2.60. This is still a great distribution (2nd highest 3rd quarter distribution in the history of the trust), but investors do not like a 15% decline in distribtions quarter over quarter. I would expect the price of BPT to adjust accordingly to this expected dividend level. Also, another wild card this quarter is that the Alaskan oil tax reform bill could be repealed come August.19th (a big impact on BPT). It will be interesting to see the outcome as those wanting to repeal the bill have raised about $160k and those opposed to repealing the bill have raised $3.8m and have the support of the 6 largest Native Alaskan corporations.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Up $1.37 after hours?

    by bennyd15_99 Jul 9, 2014 4:28 PM
    tomn5570 tomn5570 Jul 9, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    Only 450 shares traded; someone made a mistake with their order.

  • Reply to

    2nd Quarter Distribution

    by tomn5570 Jun 27, 2014 5:21 PM
    tomn5570 tomn5570 Jul 2, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    Well, we should get the number tomorrow morning. A lot of profit taking before the announcement.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • With the 2nd quarter basically in the books, the distribution looks to be around $3.00 to $3.05/unit. While this may be a little disappointing to some, it was actually a very good to great quarter. The highest 2nd quarter distribution in the history of the trust was $3.05 in 2008 (compared to $2.14 in 2013, so a 40% increase over 2013). Compared to last year, production for the quarter was up almost 2% and June was up 7% year over year. So, while we were hoping for a bigger quarter after the 1st quarter, this is still an outstanding quarter. Compared to the first quarter, production was done almost 4%, but this is expected due to the need to do repairs, starting in June, on the wells, gathering facilities and pipeline; oil prices were up almost 6%.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Stock will only payout $35 in future dividends

    by yurivelarde Jun 18, 2014 9:39 AM
    tomn5570 tomn5570 Jun 18, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    You may want to go back and compare this quarter to the last quarter - your tax number is probably too high by about $9/barrel. So with oil prices up close to 6% quarter over quarter, you see the distribution dropping over 15%. You may have some credibility with Lisa, but other than pointing out something that everyone on this board has known for years, you have provided nothing new. Sorry, but I think you have a personal agenda here.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Stock will only payout $35 in future dividends

    by yurivelarde Jun 18, 2014 9:39 AM
    tomn5570 tomn5570 Jun 18, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    If you are such a good accountant, you may want to go back and sharpen your pencil(s) about the next distribution. Compared to the last quarter, the price of oil is up almost 6% and production level is down about 2% (normal for June and the rest of summer due to the repairs being done on the wells, collection facilities and pipeline). Overall, with over 85% of the quarter in the books, the distribution will be 4% or more than last quarter's distribution of $3.00. Check the facts before putting out a bogus number.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tomn5570 by tomn5570 May 31, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    First two months of the second quarter are basically in the books. Compared to the first quarter, overall production/oil prices are up over 5% for the quarter. Production is up about .5% and oil prices are up over 4.5% for the first two months of this quarter compared to the first quarter. Overall, a very good start to the 2nd quarter. If this trend should hold, the 2nd quarter distribution would be the second highest in the history of the trust, however March was a fairly good month for both production and oil prices (averaged just over $100/barrel). As for the recent bear raid on BPT (happens just about every quarter at this time), I do not look for it to end for several more days - the closing price on this Tuesday or Wednesday could be back in the 80's; not sure how low it will go, but may be a small buying opportunity.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tomn5570 by tomn5570 May 1, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    First month of the quarter is in the books. Comparing April's results to January's results : Production was down 3.5% (January was a very good month for production) and the price of oil was higher by $7.9%, for a net increase (month over month) of about 4.4%. February's production was disappointing for two reasons : less days of production and, in the middle of the month, production dropped significantly and then returned to a normal state later in the month - hopefully, May will show a nice improvement in prodcution. Oil prices averaged just over $100 for Feb, so it probably will be tough for May oil prices to beat that level. All in all, a fairly good start to the quarter. As for the trading of the last several days, this is another of the bear raids that periodically happens to BPT. I would expect it to continue, at least, through tomorrow - may be able to pick up some units under $85.

AGNC
23.12+0.19(+0.83%)Jul 31 3:59 PMEDT

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