Agree with you WiseJ I am also not convinced that oil has hit it's bottom & there will be more pain to come. But, for OPEC's SecGen to spout off shows that dissension is growing in OPEC's ranks. SecGen is probably not allowed to speak without some official backing.
My take on this is that oil is slowing & will be grinding to a halt fairly soon. Now whether there is a "V" shaped spike once the downward spiral has ceased is the question or will OPEC keep prices at the $30-$40 range for the foreseeable future?
"Oil prices may have hit a floor and could move higher very soon, OPEC's secretary-general said Monday in his first comments on the subject after a seven-month-long rout. " from a Reuters Article entitled "Oil climbs ahead of U.S. storm following Saudi transition".
CL - Hans Zimmer was quite good - just heard it for the first time. Yesterday was screening for new stocks & regaled myself with Foghat, Canned Heat, & Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers for about 3 hours. Going to finish up the stocks today & will have to find some more banging rock to sort through the stocks.
All the chimps (investment team) in suits are going to get other jobs. They will explain that they were not the ones that sank the firm - it was the other chimp.
The failure of the investment fund to keep control & be on top of their investments is one of the big reasons I won't go with an investment firm - much less listen to their self-serving advice. If someone is going to lose the money or make a gain from it - it will be me. I at least have an interest in making money & watching it grow.
Wim, don't know if your analysis is correct but I like it. Am of the opinion that we are close to the bottom as well. But whether it is a slow uptick or a sheer nose-bleed of an ascent - will take it.
Have a great weekend.
I enjoy reading Slick, usually for entertainment value with the occasional kernel of "That's interesting" which makes for a little deeper thinking. This time, hope you are sitting down, I agree with Slick. I have been doing something that I normally do not do - sit on just cash. In the last 5 weeks have bought some BDC's, & also some more oil stocks. But, right now am at about 30% cash.
Usually I am more than 95% invested in stocks & find lots of stocks to buy but no money that I want to free up on them. I like the stocks that I own now - except for RIG - & will buy more of some of them when the prices bottom.
One of the bright flashing warning banners I look for at the beginning of an economic downturn is some pundit saying "This time it is different". The commodity or industry that is spiraling down at the moment, according to the pundit, is naturally going to continue it's rise shortly ie. lead-sheathed balloons with coal fired boilers will rise & take over aviation, oil will magically turnaround this week irregardless that the Saudis are pumping like crazy along with everyone else, etc.
Have not heard the exact phrase TTIID yet. But am reading stories that eerily parallel that phrase. Not being alarmist, but curiously cautious. Just my personal opinion as a person who has only myself to lean on for a retirement who has no economic degree. But I can read, analyze news articles & also remember previous economic cycles. In addition, am getting better at spotting fluff/BS in news releases.
Have already bought about 60% of all the oil I need/want about 3 weeks ago. Am waiting for the bottom/tick up from bottom to buy more to lower my pps.
Did sell PEP on the rumor that it will be sold. Stock had nice run up in price so I declared it "profit time" & took my gain. Bought in at $81 & now out at $96.85. Leave the serious rumor mongering & happy talk to others. Might buy back in again after everything settles down, but then maybe not. Always other stocks to buy & hold for 6 months to a year & then sell. GLTA.
Cramer is an indicator. If Cramer starts mentioning a stock to buy - need to research it more closely with the thought of selling.
Ran across an article yesterday in Reuters that I thought was interesting. "Only 1.6 percent of global oil supplies would be loss-making if crude prices fall to $40 a barrel, but even this level would not necessarily spark shutdowns, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said on Friday." Had been wondering where the inflection point was for oil companies as perceived by independent sources.
Jman, chickens lay less eggs in winter even in heated chicken houses. Six chickens at Mom-in-laws during spring, summer & fall gave about 1 1/2 dozen eggs a week. During winter that dropped to 4 - 5 /week.
Personally am thinking that $7.50 is an interesting number to use as a goal post. Might reach that if they cut divie to right size divie payout to 100% or less.
Looks like I will continue to follow Phil's results (breakeven to 2%), but achieved through different avenues. Did not have the BDC problem this year. Did not buy any BDCs until the last 6 weeks. Oil was definitely a problem with RIG, CHK, & SLB. Luckily sold CHK & SLB before things turned to a rout.Through the year there were some bright spots ABC, AMT, RIO & DOV. Starting in August through October started selling some stocks that were headed down but were still profitable. Bought back some & have found new ones. Out of 23 stocks now have - 12 are new - & 2 have been sold (DOV & SLB) in Aug - Oct time & rebought now when lower. Hopefully 2015 will be a little more profitable - and I will get back a full head of hair, my beard will return to brown/black, & the rest of the sculpture made this year will sell :)
Have a great Xmas to New Years buying experience & may 2015 be truly wonderful. It is a true maxim that you can see further on the shoulders of those who have come before & who you surround yourself with now. I can attest to this.
Phil. M/Star says $141, V/line says $150/200, & Argus says $145 with S&P saying $112. the average is $143 according to the experts with the pointy heads. I am thinking $110 is achievable by end of 2015 if oil gets straightened out, more or less, by May. Like wiseman could be wrong, has happened before.
Jman - according to Schwab GAIN's divie cover is 512% - sounds high to me. Do not know what real figure is. Just thought I would pass that on.
Since I follow directions well I will give you four, Musky. All four bought within last 4 weeks.
True oil stock - Nabors - NBR. Think they have reached their bottom or very, very close to it. Would avoid CHK for now - they are bouncing around too much. Like where their price is (in the $16-17 range) but the bouncing around causes my stomach to bounce around. Owned CHK up until around 10/1 of this year sold out & made some money.
SLB - Schlumberger - oil services think they are also near their bottom more or less. Also think they have survived probably the best of their brethren. Sold SLB 6 weeks ago & rebought last week. Would avoid HAL - Haliburton. Think they will have indigestion from merger. They are attractively priced but don't think their pain is over yet.
Also just bought Encanna - ECA. Think they will be good for the long haul. Another oil services.
TRN - an odd choice at best. Trinity Industries makes rail cars. One of the things they make is tanker cars (for oil & other things). Their stock price has been pummeled a bit but think they are the right direction to go in. There is supposed to be a Federal law taking effect on 1/1/2015 about retrofitting railcars to be less leakproof. Sounds like long term money to me for TRN. Lots of railcars that need to be retrofitted.
If any these guys go down any further, which I don't think so, I will be increasing my position in them - particularly TRN.
Musky, am not a guy that flips stocks. Tend to buy & sit on the stocks for minimum of 6 months to 3 years. Exception to that was PetSmart - bought it then 3 weeks later they announced that they were being taken private. Stock price went up $12.00 & I sold out immeadiatly. Don't like hanging around after an announcement like that. The SLB sale & rebuy is unusual for me.
Merry Christmas, Happy Boxing Day, Festivus, et al.
Am like Phil, except started younger. About 1/2 mile from parents 1st home they were putting up the huge NIH complex in Bethesda. Quickly figured out at 7 yrs old that there was money to be made collecting soda bottles for a nickle. Unlike Phil did not have a wagon so had to heist a milk crate or a paper shopping bag & fill it. My 16 month older brother usually went with me. Our money making effort got stymied when we brought in so many bottles so often that the store owner set hours when he would accept bottles (which were not kind to a kid in 1st grade). Store owner did not get that we were spending a good sum of our money in his store. 1st economics lesson for a kid - when the cost outweighs the opportunity move on.
Bought two stocks that might be good for the next year. MT (Arcelor Mital) & ECA (Encanna). Been watching MT spiral down for about a year. BV-$34.85 & the possible opportunity to triple in price over the next year or so. 40% of their sales are in Europe & 40% in US. Also vertically integrated - they mine it, turn it into steel, then use it in their own products & also sell some on open market. Could be good.
Added to my oil stocks of RIG, SLB, & NBR - added ECA. Another vertically integrated (more or less) stock.
Am looking for both to be very good in about 6 months. ECA after Saudis blow through their budget projections with having to pump more oil to get the same dollars they had back in 2013 & also ratchet back Iraq, Iran & Libya from cheating on their supposed oil pumping allotment. MT since Europe should be recovering better by then.
If not, have both at attractive prices, unfortunately neither have divie reinvestment.. Now still have some cash but adopting Nancy Regans slogan "Just Say No" to any more oil & oil related stocks. Saving myself for something special - whatever that might be.
Understand about HTGC & MAIN. Think both are good for the long haul. In addition,, MAIN goes in the wife's IRA which means need to be conservative about her money. Besides if MAIN & HTGC tumble some more, will buy some more, if not still think the deal is okay.
If I don't talk to you before have a great Christmas. GLTA