Wiseman, to make matters worse for the car makers, read an article a while back in WSJ where the carmakers were in a bad way since they had signed contracts with the government to produce a stated quantity of cars regardless of how many were bought. Basically guaranteed employment for car workers & bleeding money for the car makers.
Not going to chase FSC. Like Kel, will just wait. Price will settle lower in the next day or two when the rest of the details come out.
My order is in for $6.75. Bid Ask at Schwab is $7.35/$7.36 was lower earlier. Figure $6.75 is about 20% lower than their Friday closing which should be about right. If I get some, fine, if not no problem. at $6.75 that is 10.66% .
HCS, thanks for the reply. Had looked at SWHC, RGR, & Olin all three are fully priced & have very little prospect of moving up 20% - 50% which is one of my criteria. Another criteria is paying a dividend. Other problem with SWHC & RGR is they are pretty much single industry companies - if guns are not doing well or popular they are pretty stuck. RGR used to have a sideline of machining titanium or some other hard metal.; but that machining was not a major part of their business.
Like Olin better since it is a conglomerate of sorts & can better weather a downturn in guns. Also I believe most people who wanted guns got them about 6 years ago. So the market is pretty well satiated. Think these same people also filled up on ammo at the same time since ammo was in short supply for awhile. So unfortunately Guns & ammo got stuck in with Utilities for better or worse with me.
Glad to hear the gun ranges are doing a lively business. Maybe gun ranges would be the better investment. Most of the gun ranges around me are Mom & Pop affairs. Have to check into that a little further. Might be some interesting investing to do. Thanks for stimulating my thinking.
Thanks WiseJ. I have a full plate of oil & BDC's (three oil & 5 BDC's) at this time - more than I usually have. Diversity I have in those fields. Thank you for the GDX suggestion. Will relook at my spreadsheets.
As to gold being a long term play - agree. Am thinking this is a 4 - 6 month play maybe a little longer. But not a 1 - 3 year keeper like AMT or BAX. If Barrick hits my goal price tomorrow, will sell & start a new spreadsheet of potential equities to lure to my portfolio. Am not one to hang around & see if the particular stock will crest over my predictions - sell & move on.
Am very happy with the temporary rise in oil stocks - suckers rally? Will ride the oil stocks to their peak - sometime later this year maybe a little longer.
In the hopes of hedging my bets since China, Europe & possibly Australia & Canada seem to be teetering on the brink of entering a recession I have bought two new stocks. One a gold miner & the other a drug mfr. Bought Barrick Gold (ABX) & also Baxter Pharm. (BAX). Never owned a gold miner before. Normally would have sought out Electric Utillities, guns & ammo, distillers, & brewers and other things folks buy in a recession. Unfortunately Electric Utillities & Guns, distillers and ammo seem very expensive right now. For the brewers, the interesting ones are ADR's & am not interested in ADR's.
Did not buy gold coins or silver since I know nothing about them & that is a sure way to get fleeced. Also did not want to have to store them.
Baxter could hang on to for awhile, it might have long term staying power.
Also, thanks for the rally today in equities (whoever is in charge of rallies). Am feeling much more positive that my oil picks & steel are moving up.
WiseJ and others who seriously look at BDC's, got something new to think about. They are called "yieldcos". Ran across these while doing some DD on some new stock picks for next week. The "yieldco" that I was interested in was Hannon Armstrong (HASI). They are somewhat similar to HTGC in that they invest in only sustainable energy projects - solar, wind, hydro, etc. HASI sells for around $13.50 & has a divie of around 7%. Their stock trades in a tight range also like a BDC although they are a REIT.
Really, really liked what they were investing in & how they were doing it but HTGC was a bit better, so I will stick with HTGC; better yield & longer in business not ideology lead my thinking right now.
Agree with you WiseJ I am also not convinced that oil has hit it's bottom & there will be more pain to come. But, for OPEC's SecGen to spout off shows that dissension is growing in OPEC's ranks. SecGen is probably not allowed to speak without some official backing.
My take on this is that oil is slowing & will be grinding to a halt fairly soon. Now whether there is a "V" shaped spike once the downward spiral has ceased is the question or will OPEC keep prices at the $30-$40 range for the foreseeable future?
"Oil prices may have hit a floor and could move higher very soon, OPEC's secretary-general said Monday in his first comments on the subject after a seven-month-long rout. " from a Reuters Article entitled "Oil climbs ahead of U.S. storm following Saudi transition".
CL - Hans Zimmer was quite good - just heard it for the first time. Yesterday was screening for new stocks & regaled myself with Foghat, Canned Heat, & Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers for about 3 hours. Going to finish up the stocks today & will have to find some more banging rock to sort through the stocks.
All the chimps (investment team) in suits are going to get other jobs. They will explain that they were not the ones that sank the firm - it was the other chimp.
The failure of the investment fund to keep control & be on top of their investments is one of the big reasons I won't go with an investment firm - much less listen to their self-serving advice. If someone is going to lose the money or make a gain from it - it will be me. I at least have an interest in making money & watching it grow.
Wim, don't know if your analysis is correct but I like it. Am of the opinion that we are close to the bottom as well. But whether it is a slow uptick or a sheer nose-bleed of an ascent - will take it.
Have a great weekend.
I enjoy reading Slick, usually for entertainment value with the occasional kernel of "That's interesting" which makes for a little deeper thinking. This time, hope you are sitting down, I agree with Slick. I have been doing something that I normally do not do - sit on just cash. In the last 5 weeks have bought some BDC's, & also some more oil stocks. But, right now am at about 30% cash.
Usually I am more than 95% invested in stocks & find lots of stocks to buy but no money that I want to free up on them. I like the stocks that I own now - except for RIG - & will buy more of some of them when the prices bottom.
One of the bright flashing warning banners I look for at the beginning of an economic downturn is some pundit saying "This time it is different". The commodity or industry that is spiraling down at the moment, according to the pundit, is naturally going to continue it's rise shortly ie. lead-sheathed balloons with coal fired boilers will rise & take over aviation, oil will magically turnaround this week irregardless that the Saudis are pumping like crazy along with everyone else, etc.
Have not heard the exact phrase TTIID yet. But am reading stories that eerily parallel that phrase. Not being alarmist, but curiously cautious. Just my personal opinion as a person who has only myself to lean on for a retirement who has no economic degree. But I can read, analyze news articles & also remember previous economic cycles. In addition, am getting better at spotting fluff/BS in news releases.