Todays DJX Intraday price reversal appears to have developed a gravestone doji candlestick pattern similar to the March 23rd 2015 session. Paying close attention to the 17579 pivot.
A confirmed pivot break of 17579 will initially target ~ 17100/17300 zone. Closing prices below the 200 dsma could be a game changer that will strongly favor the bears. A bounce scenario is still in effect however the markets must hold at current price levels above the the pivot. The question is will the DJX bounce or break? The answer should be known very soon.
Quite simply the new near term pivot is 17579. Today's price action appears to be a bounce but this is currently unoffical as the market has not closed. The DJX remains bullish above 17579 however a break of this level will strongly favor the bears.
As previously mentioned the chart formation per sessions 3/11/15 to 3/23/15 appeared to be a bear flag that resolved during yesterdays 3/25/15 session. Also previously mentioned an uptrend line per the intraday session lows; 10/15/15, 2/2/15, and now 3/26/15 has been touched and slightly breached today. The question is, will a confirmed break of that uptrend line occur? Today's close could provide the answer. If the break is confirmed new downside targets should be as follows; the long term uptrend lower channel line @ ~ 17450, the 200 dsma @ ~ 17300 and the ~ 17100 support/resistance zone. If the 17100 price zone does not hold the markets become vulnerable to significant declines that would likely target the October 2014 lows. Conversely if US equities find support during the near term on the aformentioned line then traders should expect a continuation of the long term uptrend.
Purchased some shares today, but not for fundamental reasons. Just appears the stock is catching a bid today with some volume, but hopefully your information is correct.
It's possible that a bear flag is forming. Watch for a break below the 50 dsma and the recent lows for confirmation. Dowside targets are noted below.
DIA is currently below the 50 dsma. Researched yesterdays rally on 3-11-15 and it seems I missed an uptrend line per the closing prices/line chart dates; 10/16/14, ~1/28/15, and now 3-11-15. Essentially the markets (DJX) could find support here but the intra-day lows trendline per those dates extends proportionately lower. The down/up/down trade action in the last 3/4 trading days resembles sessions 2/2/15 and 10/10/14 where resolution was rather significant. On the downside a break and close below the 3/12/15 lows will favor further selling pressure on an intra-day basis to ~ 17500. If this level breaks the next logical target is the 200 dsma ~ 17300. If the 200 dmsa/17300 and 17100 zones cannot support, the markets are vulnerable to significant declines. Conversely, bullish price action occurs above the 50 dsma ~ 17775 then targeting the 18000/18100 zone. If the rally extends beyond those zones then the markets should test and possibly surpass the recent highs. I suspect the answers will become apparent by the end of next week.
Within the past year and a half aside from the October 14 lows the DJX has bounced off the 200 dsma several times virtually spot on; 10/9/13, 2/4/14, 8/8/14, 2/2/15. The ~17100 price is not the current 200 dsma however appears to be a potential support zone. This zone acted as resistance ~7/22/14 (17133), 8/27/14 (17134). It was broken/rallied through per the 9/18/14 close (17265). The DJX then peaked on 9/19/14 (17350) reversed course and spiraled into the volatile Oct 2014 correction. More recently on 12/16/14 (17067 Low) and 2/2/15 (17037 Low) the ~17000/17100 price area acted as support. A more exact representation of this rather significant price zone could be noted as an average e.g. (17067+17037+17133+17134)/4 = 17092 or ~17100. To a degree I think both you and your friends are correct in terms of notable downside targets (17100/17300) however the current 200 dsma ~17300 violation/support ('next target' as stated in my original post) must clearly occur prior to 17100 via market decline... Of course all of this is just my opinion in addition to investors/traders bearing the responsibility of doing their own due diligence.
Official close today; DJX - 332.78 @ 17662.94. Expecting some natural ebb/flow near term, but static aside will pay close attention to key levels. As noted; the 200 Dsma seems a logical downside target and it will be interesting to see what happens. You may have made a great call here JR, but with these markets, who knows....
A close on the lows today will not bode well going into tomorrow. DJX currently -291 @ 17704. Next target should be the 200Dsma @ ~ 17300/DIA/173. A confirmed break of that level and you'll likely see a test of the October lows. If any of this unfolds, 'massive' could be an appropriate word to describe it.
I've heard (don't know) that a 10% trailing stop is common ground and widely used in the equity markets. If US indices approach the October lows that threshold could be exceeded making your estimates a possibility. Some aspects of RSI and MACD are currently bearish however the long term uptrend remains in tact. The first signal of an approaching DIA decline is a confirmed close below ~ 180 which is a new support zone per the recent December 2014 highs and channel breakout . Prices below ~180 fall within a sideways channel that has developed from Dec/14 to ~mid Feb/15. The next support zone extends to ~171, which is the lower line of that channel. A confirmed break beneath this line would likely lead markets to test the Oct/14 lows, thereby triggering the supposed 10% threshold, and then ultimately realizing your estimates. Bottom line; several rather significant bearish signals need to occur prior to a decline in the magnitude of 20-30%
DIA is within resistance territory and could experience a near term decline however the narrow ranged upward sloping channel which began its formation in early February 2015 has not been violated. A break of this relatively tight channel could be the pre-cursor for an official near term correction. RSI divergence seems to indicate that the recent highs lack conviction vs. previous highs e.g. December 2014.