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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

tony.paganini 38 posts  |  Last Activity: 40 minutes ago Member since: Mar 12, 2010
  • Reply to

    200 dSMA

    by tony.paganini Jan 29, 2015 11:08 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 30, 2015 6:32 PM Flag

    The DJIA 200 dSMA and long term uptrend continue to hold however today's low close does not favor the bulls going into next week. Interestingly, the volatile down/up/down price action during the past three sessions resembles the three day price action immediately preceding the simultaneous 200 dSMA and uptrend break during October 2014 as follows; 10/7/14 -269, 10/8/14 +288, 10/9/14 -340 vs. 1/28/15 -211, 1/29/15 +221, 1/30/15 -252. The next days close on 10/10/14 confirmed a simultaneous uptrend/MA break and within days per an intraday basis the DJIA declined 700+ points. Break or Bounce? Early trade action next week should provide the answer.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Jan 29, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    -100, +100! Can't help but notice those gargantuan gaps and I presume, reluctantly, that professional money managers hold this security overnight. Yet another example of pure bubble mania price action.

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 29, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    Yes, it's the same old routine and you mentioning it made me laugh, thank you... BTW: I've observed that profiting from predictability makes boredom significantly more tolerable.

  • Reply to

    Is this starting to look like 2008?

    by testajoe147 Jan 29, 2015 11:24 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 29, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    Is this starting to look like 2008? Yes, it somewhat does. The SPX is positioned directly on a rather significant uptrend line that has held since ~ March 2013 and it's also nearing its 200 DSMA. The long term uptrend remains in tact however a break of these support zones could lead equities into an aggressive selling phase. The current situation may somewhat resemble November 7th 2007 when the SPX broke the 200 dSMA followed shortly after by a long term uptrend line break in January 2008. The 200 dSMA was re-tested with failure from underneath on 5/19/2008 and the rest is history as the US equity markets declined over 50% within 6 months.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Jan 29, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    A break and close below the 200 dSMA @ ~ 17,000 will not bode well for US equities but so far the markets are holding and the long term uptrend remains in tact. Pay attention to the closing prices today and tomorrow as they could be an indication of lies ahead near term. A confirmed support break may lead the markets into an aggressive liquidation phase which would likely target the October 2014 lows.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Jan 28, 2015 10:42 PM Flag

    Range bound since July 2014. A break of 70 and FB will likely experience a significant sell-off.

  • Reply to

    Stock Market Prediction

    by tony.paganini Dec 26, 2014 2:05 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 27, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    Tom O'brien at TFNN seems to suggest that a downside resolution is likely followed by a test of the October 2014 lows. His conclusion seems based primarily on volume comparisons.

  • Reply to

    Stock Market Prediction

    by tony.paganini Dec 26, 2014 2:05 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 27, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    Watching support @ ~ 17200 and today's close. An intraday reversal remains a possibility. FOMC results may determine near term market direction. Expecting a strong move to either direction, but favoring a bullish resolution as the markets continue to advance within a well established long term uptrend.

  • Reply to

    Volatility Plunging On A Flat/Slight Up Day

    by xtgeminiman Jan 26, 2015 3:37 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 26, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    True, but the VIX dropped to 11.50 on 9/19/14 and in less than a month the SPX declined ~200 points, 9/19/14 ~ 2019 to 10/15/14 ~ 1820 -- the VIX peaked above 31. The US markets are in the middle of a trading range and the FOMC meeting results will likely be the resolve.

  • Reply to

    S&P only up 5 points on ECB news?!

    by thatmarketguru Jan 21, 2015 10:27 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 22, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Indeed, the markets have bounced and when considering today's robust rally the general sentiment should be nothing less than bullish. The DJ transportation average appears primed to make new highs but that verdict is still out. As mentioned in previous posts this could all change on a dime, but until then the rally hats are on...

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Jan 22, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    Looks like a bear wedge pattern may be developing with current prices at an apex though WHR continues to maintain a medium term uptrend. A downside break could happen any day, supported by several recent bearish daily candlestick patterns. Examples: 1/9/15 doji, 1/12/15 bearish engulfing, 1/20/15 dark cloud cover, today (closing dependent) another doji. Resolution should be known very soon.

  • Reply to

    where the market is heading

    by kevivoe Jan 22, 2015 11:56 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 22, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    Primarily agree however upside resistance may occur at the previous high per 12/29/14 @ ~2093. If the SPX breaks out making new highs then the 2130 projection seems a reasonable target as it is within the upper boundary of an uptrending channel pattern. On the downside it's clear that the 2000 price level is a significant support zone. Some are anticipating an inevitable break of this zone followed by a market descent to the October lows. e.g. Tom O'brien @ TFNN. Thus far the SPX continues to trade within near term support and resistance while the long term uptrend remains in tact.

  • Reply to

    S&P only up 5 points on ECB news?!

    by thatmarketguru Jan 21, 2015 10:27 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 21, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    It will be interesting to see the markets reaction tomorrow. Will they sell they sell the news? If so then all has been priced in and the markets will likely break key support levels and test the October 2014 lows. If the markets bounce here, then the bubble continues to bubble.

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 19, 2015 7:38 PM Flag

    Probably down a fraction pre-market and early trade followed by an intra-day reversal transitioning into a continued rally for a couple days in anticipation of the Jan 22nd ECB QE announcement. In the near term a break and close below ~ 197.86 will not bode well for the SPY and general US equity markets. This rather significant support level is the result of the following lows: 12/16/14 (197.86), 1/6/15 (198.85), ~1/14/15 (198.57). If this primary support level breaks the next likely target for the SPY will be @ ~ $190 (3/14 - 5/14 resistance zone and 8/7/14 support level). And of course if this last support zone cannot hold the SPY should then test the 10/15/14 lows @ ~ 182.

  • Reply to

    Stock Market Prediction

    by tony.paganini Dec 26, 2014 2:05 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 16, 2015 7:53 AM Flag

    The DIA and general markets have closed beneath their aforementioned uptrend lines favoring lower prices near term. A breach of the 1/6/15 and 12/16/14 lows would then target the 200 dma. Trading beneath this range should lead the markets into a test of the 10/15/14 lows. Conversely, support at the 200 dma or higher could create a bullish consolidation pattern but this scenario will likely only develop after an initial near term down-move.

  • Reply to

    Stock Market Prediction

    by tony.paganini Dec 26, 2014 2:05 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 8, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    Break or Bounce: The bounce scenario appears to have unfolded. A continuation of the current uptrend should initially target the 12/5/14 high @ 17991. If this level is breached then the most recent high of 12/26/14 @ 18103 should be challenged. A breakout of these levels will place the DJX/DIA and general US equity markets into new highs but all may find resistance at the price levels originally mentioned at the beginning of this thread ~ DIA 183-185. In the meantime a reversal pivot price level is currently the low of 1-6-15 @ ~ 17262.

  • Reply to

    Stock Market Prediction

    by tony.paganini Dec 26, 2014 2:05 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 6, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    Currently the DIA has broken the intraday lower trendline per 10/15/14 and 12/16/14 session lows. A close below the line will favor a continued descent initially targeting the 12/16/14 intraday low @ 170.74 then the 200 dma @ ~ 169. If these levels are confirmed broken with conviction the next likely support will be the 10/15/14 intraday low @ ~ 158. An intraday rally above the trendline today 1/6/15 would favor a bounce scenario and would likely initiate the next leg up. Today's close is important.

  • Reply to

    Stock Market Prediction

    by tony.paganini Dec 26, 2014 2:05 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jan 5, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    If one plotted the following intra day session lows: 10/15/14; 12/16/14; and 1/5/15, one could observe that the DIA, NAZ, and S&P are positioned virtually on top of their respective bear wedge lower trend lines. Though the higher resistance levels prediction may not occur, the bear wedge pattern may unfold. Trading action near term should be telling as a close beneath the lower trend line will not bode well for the US equity markets while support at the line may indicate a continuation of the current uptrend.

DIA
177.58-1.8100(-1.01%)Mar 31 4:00 PMEDT