If I'm not mistaken BOJ didn't tighten but held off on further stimulus...
"The Bank of Japan held off on expanding monetary stimulus, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues opted to take more time to assess the impact of negative interest rates.
The move comes as a surprise to the slight majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg who had projected some action from the central bank in response to a strengthening in the yen that has cast a shadow over prospects for higher wages and investment. The currency rallied against the dollar immediately after the decision while stocks in Tokyo tumbled...."
Schiff consistently nails the fed....
Peter Schiff Radio. Ep. 163: Dollar Dives, Gold Thrives, Puerto Rico Defaults: 5/2/16
~ 4:00 “There’s still people clinging to the idea that we’re going to get a rebound in the second quarter when there’s absolutely no indication to expect that to happen and the currency markets obviously don’t think that’s going to happen with the dollar trading as weak as it is. In fact I saw some people on CNBC that were saying that the reason the price of gold is rising because of a weak dollar, that’s not actually the case the price of gold is rising for the same reason the dollar is going down. It’s not that the weak dollar is causing strong gold both the dollar and gold are moving for the same reasons and that is because we are unwinding these bullish bets on the US economy. The idea that we’re going to have this divergent monetary policy where the US is the only central bank tightening and everybody else is easing because we’ve got all this great economic growth. Now people are starting to realize that we don’t have great economic growth and the FED can’t raise interest rates which is something I’ve been saying all along. “
Seems the market should go up now per FED meeting yesterday so I bought calls... It was a strange experience since I havn't been bullish since 2008... Wonder if this means something?
Now is a good time raise rates though they can back out altogether. You just don't know with this committee which seems very different than the old days when policy was reliable & telegraphed. A hike next week should definitely crash this market though unlikely to occur. Peter Schiff claims they have no intention of raising rates and he's pegged the FED for years.
For specific reasons ------ I have a countdown timer set on May 12th 2016. Currently we're at 19 days 23 hours 6 minutes and 06 seconds...
The Sovereign Investor Daily - by JL Yastine April 19th 2016
Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash.
Billionaire Carl Icahn, for example, recently raised a red flag on a national broadcast when he declared, “The public is walking into a trap again as they did in 2007.”
And the prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”
Smithers backs up his prediction using a ratio which proves that the only time in history stocks were this risky was 1929 and 1999. And we all know what happened next. Stocks fell by 89% and 50%, respectively.
Even the Royal Bank of Scotland says the markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the 2008 crisis. They told their clients to “Sell Everything” because “in a crowded hall, the exit doors are small.”
The last unfettered SPY run of ~ 13% started on 9-29-15 (intra-day low 186.93) and ended on 11/3/2015 (intra-day high 211.66). 25 sessions. On the 26th session it corrected ~ 4.5 % lasting ~8 sessions.
A ~15% unfettered SPY advance occurred from 10/15/2014 (181.92 intra-day low) to 12/5/2014 (208.47 intra-day high) 37 sessions. On the 38th session it corrected ~ 5% lasting ~8 sessions.
The current SPY advance began on 2/11/16 ascending virtually unfettered for 48 sessions with intra-day extremes of 181.09 (2/11/16 intra-day low) to 210.51 (4/20/16 intra-day high) or ~ 16%.
US Reporter April 13th 2016 - In a shocking move likely to crush the US economy overnight, China is refusing to make its new gold-backed Yuan, convertible from or to US Dollars. The new Yuan will be introduced next Tuesday, April 19. When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to add the Yuan to the basket of world currencies used for Global Reserves and International Trade, they wanted China to make the Yuan more reliable as a currency. Since then, China has almost un-pegged its Yuan from the Dollar, allowing its value to fluctuate on world markets. But for years, China has been amassing huge amounts of gold bullion; some have said their appetite for bullion has been "staggering." And with a new gold-backed Yuan to be issued next Tuesday, the entire world will have a choice of a new currency to use for international trade: The old US Dollar which is backed by nothing, or the new Chinese Yuan, which is backed by gold. Which currency would YOU use? When this new currency is issued, countries that have been forced to use US Dollars for decades, and have had to keep billions of dollars in their foreign currency reserves, will be free to dump those dollars. But they won't be able to dump them to China for the new gold-backed, Yuan!
China has reportedly decided "there can be no conversion of gold-backed Yuan to or from US dollars." What China fears is that many countries around the world will want to trade their reserve US dollars for the new Yuan, leaving China with mountains of worthless US dollars. China already has several trillion in US dollar reserves and does not want or need more. If news of this decision by China is correct, then countries around the world may just have to decide whether or not they wish to continue trading with the USA at all?
The upheaval this could cause as early as next week, would be staggering.
Sure seems that way. The recent advance formed what looks like an ascending bear channel lacking volume while indicators diverge. Put to call ratio at an extreme low along with the VIX... Major short opportunity with tremendous reward potential, right? How much time is left for those bulls anyway? And who wants to continue buying at these prices so near the highs? Smart money doesn't pay premium prices and the near term future is bleak... the market already priced no rate change for the April FOMC meeting and if they do raise (which they won't) expect a massive sell-off just like last time - probably worse... Increasing positions in June calls in SQQQ & UVXY. (NOTE: THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION, merely an opinion.)
Yet again challenging intraday highs 2/8/16 .07, 3/4/16 .0687, 4/8/16 .07. If .07 breaks .09-.11 is a reasonable upside target while .07 assumes new support. Management must act now as the precious metal markets awake from years of hybernation.
Targeting ~ 101-103 medium term. A near term advance should find resistance at previous support ~ 111. The 101 - 103 range is a measured decline per; January highs ~ 121, to the consolidation low ~ 111, to the measured target and previous support/resistance ~ 101/103... If the target zone is realized (or prior) US equities should inevitably follow.
CNBC 4-6-2016 ‘The Santelli Exchange.’
Rick Santelli: “’It may be impossible to underestimate the gullibility of professional FED watchers.’ Why did you write that and what does it mean?”
Peter Schiff: “Remember in March you had people talking about the possibility of April being a live meeting and everybody talking about whether or not the FED’s gonna raise rates. All this is part of their bluff, it’s a charade, they really can’t raise rates because they don’t want to put too many holes in this bubble because this recovery was never real, it’s phony, it’s another federal reserve bubble just like the one that popped in 2008 only this one is even bigger and I think what we should be talking about is not when the FED’s gonna hike rates but when they’re gonna admit that the economy is much weaker than they’ve been pretending, when are they gonna cut rates, and when are they gonna launch QE 4…. This economy would have to improve dramatically to get to mediocre, it’s lousy. Why do you think Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have got so much support? Behind all those phony job numbers are a lot of angry Americans who lost their full time jobs and have a low paying part time job, their standard of living is going down, their cost of living is going up and everyone wants to pretend this is a legitimate recovery but it's just an illusion.”
Santelli, “So basically you’re looking at what’s going on in the presidential election through the prism of nationalism and it seems to make sense would you agree with that?”
Schiff, “Well not nationalism but economic realism. Why are so many Americans so upset if the unemployment rate is really 5%? Because it’s not, it’s much higher than that. They’re counting people with part time jobs as if they’re fully employed; they’re not. All these numbers are phony."
The session close is more important. USD/JPY decline could be a catalyst for the US equity correction.
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing after they've tried everything else." - Churchill
Average the prices then round to the nearest whole number. I said 111 because I mean ~111 but if you insist on being even more precise then; 110.89...
I suppose since we can only know for sure in retrospect... Recent intraday lows indicate it's a price level of potential significance e.g. 2/11/16 110.97, 2/23/16 111.04, 3/16/16 110.66. The verdict remains to be seen...
Not sure about your information; from my perspective USD/JPY is currently in a downtrend that started early February 2016. The pairing was range bound from November 2014 to January 2016 ~ 115 to 125 roughly. Recent trade since early February appears to be a tight ranged consolidation ~111-114ish. Today's break doesn't yet appear a firm resolution, will just have to wait and see.