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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

tony.paganini 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 13, 2015 5:23 PM Member since: Mar 12, 2010
  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Nov 13, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    If the markets are in a corrective phase CMG could easily drop 100+ points... Gap fill at 442.47 or ~ 150 points from todays close... Longs should be concerned as today's close was quite bearish...

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Nov 13, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    Overdue for correction. Initial target is at gap fill ~ 657 which equals ~ 65 point drop near term.

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Oct 13, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    Bubble's always burst and this one will be no different --- 'waiting for the other shoe to drop.'

  • Reply to

    Puts vs Calls

    by tffm Sep 18, 2015 1:47 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Sep 18, 2015 2:50 AM Flag

    I checked the QQQ Oct options which almost always have a tight spread; the market isn't open now but it does appear puts are inflated. I'll check again after the open. If this were true; I have no explanation...

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Sep 16, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    I know a lot about options and you're right.... however I have to ask -- how do you know the markets are going to test the August 24th lows within weeks? Options on volatility ETF's could be a great route to go... Options on the VIX itself might be good too however they can be tricky... Please contact me, I'd really appreciate it.

  • Reply to


    by tony.paganini Sep 11, 2015 9:07 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Sep 12, 2015 8:53 AM Flag

    Maybe I'm wrong (see below), but it seems if the rate hike does not occur the markets should rally since; 'it's already priced in'. I'm anxious to load up here favoring a strong move in one direction or the other (downside bias) but I'm not confident. The only thing of which I am certain is the current price formation in relation to the recent decline; bearish. Feel free to chime in...

    "It has made the world a safer place for the Fed to do whatever they have to do in the next few weeks," said John Manley, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in New York. Traders have already priced in the increase, and whether it comes in September, October or December "isn't going to make an enormous difference," he said.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Sep 11, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    The US equity markets are at an important juncture. The current technical formation of the DJX (and general US markets) appears to be a bearish consolidation pattern stemming from the fast and severe decline of August 19, 20, 21, & 24 of 2015. Current (DJX) resistance is ~ 16650 with support consisting of consecutively higher lows when connected create a diagonal upward sloping line. The intraday close of 15871.35 from August 24th 2015 and the October 15th 2014 intraday low/reversal point of 15855.12 may prove a significant price level in the near term. The FOMC meeting next week will likely be a catalyst that can dramatically affect the US markets. In short; if interest rates are increased the markets would likely resolve downward continuing its decline but if interest rates are left unchanged the markets would likely rally. Whether or not a reaction as such unfolds is questionable but if it did volatility would present a tremendous trading opportunity. Some ETF volatility derivatives; TVIX, UVXY, VIXM, VIXY, VXX, VXZ, XXV – with options available for VIX, UVXY, VIXM, VIXY, VXX, VXZ. Due your own due diligence.

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Sep 10, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    The FOMC meeting results next week will likely determine near term direction; I happen to agree with Peter Schiff that there will be no rate change -- because of this the US markets will rally for a period of time. JMO.

  • Reply to


    by tony.paganini Sep 4, 2015 8:11 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Sep 9, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    US equities continue to retrace a significant sell-off and have developed a bearish consolidation pattern (asymmetrical triangle). The FOMC meeting next week will likely be a catalyst in determining near term direction however the affect may not be sufficient in preventing further correction and possibly an official trend change. At this moment the bulls are not in control.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Sep 4, 2015 8:11 AM Flag

    Appears the DJX is in a consolidation pattern prior to its continuation down but this could quickly change. Waiting for further developments. Ideally a firm bear pattern will emerge giving shorts an opportunity to take positions at discounted prices -- wouldn't be surprised if the bulls take control in the near term...

  • Quasi experts going long with relative certainty that the markets are flushed for an extended time period. IMO, they could easily go south with great force sooner vs. later. Take heed.

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