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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

tony.paganini 57 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Mar 12, 2010
  • Reply to

    Sell and short altogether

    by smalltownabcd 8 hours ago
    tony.paganini tony.paganini 8 hours ago Flag

    Definitely. There's a good chance this up-move is a fib retracement preceding the next leg down. Current trade looks like the same old black box/algo baby steps we've been seeing over and over again; when the markets exhaust by failing to make new highs a massive sell signal will trigger wiping out the entire advance within days possibly hours... Fully expect to see new lows very soon. JMO

  • Reply to

    wait until the panic starts.......

    by jrzbiz Jun 27, 2016 11:30 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jun 27, 2016 11:43 AM Flag

    thus far it's calm an orderly... vix moving up but nowhere near peak levels...

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Jun 24, 2016 8:35 AM Flag

    Holding the majority of short positions as the reward potential is astronomical, worth the risk, and cannot be passed up... If global equity markets stabilize short positions will be decimated conversely a total loss of control will likely lead world markets into a crash 87 style. Bottom line; the possibility of a stock market crash near term is 'on the table'; risk on.

  • Reply to

    IF BREXXIT HAPPENS DOW JONES OPENS AT 10,000

    by jacksinv Jun 24, 2016 12:17 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Jun 24, 2016 12:32 AM Flag

    Thanks for the laugh.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Jun 23, 2016 8:28 AM Flag

    Adding UVXY September call options today; also long UVXY July Calls, QQQ Sep puts, & SQQQ SEP Calls, VXX calls etc... Believe US equities nearing exhaustion... No BREXIT and no FED action in July are more NEWS to SELL. All time highs for US markets 'if/when' it occurs would be the last bull run for US equities and a historical selling opportunity.

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Jun 20, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    Definitely vulnerable and reminiscent of December 2015. Another waterfall decline could be days away. And what can the FED do about it? Not much.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Jun 16, 2016 10:38 AM Flag

    Question marks (?) aren't convincing but with TA you just never know. Seasoned analysts projecting a possible Elliot wave 3 down and if correct basically means equity markets are on the brink of an ultra aggressive decline phase. This is the type of move that can make the masses believe stocks are going to zero; VIX peak usually signifies final capitulation prior to a transition into corrective wave 4.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Jun 13, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    Raise rates equities crash USD rallies. Keep rates the same; USD crashes equity markets rally short term then inevitably crash. Either way the stock markets are in trouble.

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini May 20, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    Looks that way for now...

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini May 19, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    = target of ~ 1800 or February lows. Seems reasonable.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini May 18, 2016 10:03 AM Flag

    Goldman Sachs March 28th 2000 Abby Cohen announces at market at all time highs, "Warning: clients should reallocate some of their holdings from stock to cash." Today, May 18th 2016, Goldman Sachs downgrades stocks. "Goldman Sachs strategists say stocks do not look attractive due to earnings growth and valuation concerns.. Until we see sustained signals of growth recovery, we do not feel comfortable taking equity risk, particularly as valuations are near peak levels," In this environment, the analysts recommend being overweight cash and 5-year corporate bonds."

  • Reply to

    Correction

    by tony.paganini May 13, 2016 9:35 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini May 13, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    Perhaps, however seems the forces that be could not stop the waterfall declines on 8/18/15 ~ 11% drop in 5 sessions (SPX 8/18/15 2103 to 8/25/16 1867) and 12/30/15 ~ 13% drop in 14 sessions (SPX 2077 12/30/15 to 1812 1/20/16). Logically since rapid double digit % declines have occurred in the recent past implies that they could occur in the near term future possibly meeting and/or exceeding El-Erian's percentage/time 'correction' estimates. Kindest regards...

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini May 13, 2016 9:35 AM Flag

    Virtually an uninterrupted advance since 2/11/16 (181.09 to 210.92) ~ 16% in 3 months would seem a correction is overdue. On March 24th El-Erian called for a 10% decline in coming months; seems that prediction can still play out.

  • Reply to

    The bond chart looks ripe for a big move higher

    by chickyboy3 May 11, 2016 4:46 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini May 11, 2016 5:13 PM Flag

    Long overdue.

  • Reply to

    Reversal day?

    by kmulcahy131313 May 10, 2016 2:14 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini May 10, 2016 2:34 PM Flag

    Yup that's how it goes sometimes just when you think the market is heading to the moon it dive-bombs. Closing prices key; a reversal of todays up-move intraday hugely bleak for the bulls....

  • Reply to

    Nikkei 225 16,147.38 -518.67 -3.11%

    by paularoseimages May 5, 2016 2:15 AM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini May 5, 2016 4:07 AM Flag

    Previous close 16,666... Reminiscent of S&P 3-6-2009 low 666... Not that this means anything.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini May 3, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    of course no one is there.



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  • tony.paganini tony.paganini May 3, 2016 6:54 AM Flag

    If I'm not mistaken BOJ didn't tighten but held off on further stimulus...

    "The Bank of Japan held off on expanding monetary stimulus, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues opted to take more time to assess the impact of negative interest rates.

    The move comes as a surprise to the slight majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg who had projected some action from the central bank in response to a strengthening in the yen that has cast a shadow over prospects for higher wages and investment. The currency rallied against the dollar immediately after the decision while stocks in Tokyo tumbled...."

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini May 3, 2016 6:47 AM Flag

    Schiff consistently nails the fed....

    Peter Schiff Radio. Ep. 163: Dollar Dives, Gold Thrives, Puerto Rico Defaults: 5/2/16

    ~ 4:00 “There’s still people clinging to the idea that we’re going to get a rebound in the second quarter when there’s absolutely no indication to expect that to happen and the currency markets obviously don’t think that’s going to happen with the dollar trading as weak as it is. In fact I saw some people on CNBC that were saying that the reason the price of gold is rising because of a weak dollar, that’s not actually the case the price of gold is rising for the same reason the dollar is going down. It’s not that the weak dollar is causing strong gold both the dollar and gold are moving for the same reasons and that is because we are unwinding these bullish bets on the US economy. The idea that we’re going to have this divergent monetary policy where the US is the only central bank tightening and everybody else is easing because we’ve got all this great economic growth. Now people are starting to realize that we don’t have great economic growth and the FED can’t raise interest rates which is something I’ve been saying all along. “

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Apr 30, 2016 7:16 AM Flag

    USD/JPY major decline continues while PM's advance - next week should be interesting..

DIA
176.64+2.82(+1.62%)Jun 29 4:00 PMEDT